Liga Portugal model performance
Liga Portugal frozen walk-forward: ECE 0.0309, log loss 0.9320 on 909 matches. Live 2026/27 sample: 62 scored matches, favourite-correct 45%, prediction hits 3. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.
Portugal. Model v1.4.0-elo-span16. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
Liga Portugal reliability
When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0309. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 73% of 94 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0309
- Log loss
- 0.9320
- RPS
- 0.1829
- Walk-forward
- 909
- 1X2 accuracy
- 56%
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 42% | 173 | +5% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 44% | 269 | −0% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 52% | 169 | −3% |
| 60–70% | 65% | 72% | 128 | +7% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 73% | 94 | −2% |
| 80–90% | 84% | 90% | 57 | +5% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 95% | 19 | +3% |
Round ledgers: Round 1 · Round 2 · Round 3 · Round 4 · Round 5 · Round 6 · Round 7
Liga Portugal live sample
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 62
- Favourite-correct
- 45%
- Prediction hits
- 3
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto vs Benfica | 7 | 3–1 | 1–1Miss | Benfica win · 39%Miss | OverHit | YesHit |
| Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga | 7 | 0–0 | 1–1Miss | Santa Clara win · 35%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia | 7 | 1–2 | 1–1Miss | Estoril Praia win · 46%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| CF Estrela Amadora vs Académico Viseu FC | 7 | 0–2 | 2–1Miss | CF Estrela Amadora win · 53%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Vitória SC vs Moreirense | 7 | 1–1 | 2–0Miss | Vitória SC win · 64%Miss | UnderHit | NoMiss |
| Sporting CP vs FC Arouca | 7 | 2–2 | 2–0Miss | Sporting CP win · 76%Miss | OverHit | NoMiss |
| FC Alverca vs Rio Ave | 7 | 1–0 | 1–1Miss | FC Alverca win · 43%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| CD Nacional vs Famalicão | 7 | 0–4 | 1–2Miss | Famalicão win · 55%Hit | OverHit | YesMiss |
| Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo | 7 | 1–1 | 2–1Miss | Gil Vicente win · 51%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
| Sporting Braga vs Estoril Praia | 6 | 1–0 | 2–1Miss | Sporting Braga win · 55%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Moreirense vs CS Marítimo | 6 | 3–1 | 1–1Miss | CS Marítimo win · 41%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Rio Ave vs CF Estrela Amadora | 6 | 3–3 | 1–1Miss | CF Estrela Amadora win · 39%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Famalicão vs Sporting CP | 6 | 1–1 | 1–2Miss | Sporting CP win · 57%Miss | OverMiss | YesHit |
| Benfica vs Gil Vicente | 6 | 3–1 | 3–0Miss | Benfica win · 79%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| FC Arouca vs Santa Clara | 6 | 1–2 | 1–1Miss | FC Arouca win · 39%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC | 6 | 2–1 | 1–2Miss | Vitória SC win · 60%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Casa Pia vs FC Porto | 6 | 1–4 | 0–2Miss | FC Porto win · 76%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| CD Nacional vs FC Alverca | 6 | 1–3 | 1–1Miss | CD Nacional win · 36%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga | 3 | 2–1 | 1–2Miss | Sporting Braga win · 46%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Moreirense vs Benfica | 3 | 0–4 | 0–3Miss | Benfica win · 82%Hit | OverHit | NoHit |
| Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca | 5 | 0–0 | 1–1Miss | FC Arouca win · 36%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC | 5 | 0–1 | 2–0Miss | Gil Vicente win · 62%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Vitória SC vs Casa Pia | 5 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Vitória SC win · 58%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Santa Clara vs Rio Ave | 5 | 4–0 | 2–1Miss | Santa Clara win · 51%Hit | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| Sporting CP vs CD Nacional | 5 | 2–0 | 3–0Miss | Sporting CP win · 79%Hit | OverMiss | NoHit |
| FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga | 5 | 1–2 | 1–1Miss | Sporting Braga win · 43%Hit | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| CS Marítimo vs Benfica | 5 | 0–3 | 0–2Miss | Benfica win · 70%Hit | OverHit | NoHit |
| CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão | 5 | 2–2 | 1–1Miss | Famalicão win · 41%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| FC Porto vs Moreirense | 5 | 2–1 | 3–0Miss | FC Porto win · 83%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Sporting Braga vs Vitória SC | 4 | 1–0 | 1–1Miss | Sporting Braga win · 39%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Benfica vs Estoril Praia | 4 | 2–1 | 3–0Miss | Benfica win · 86%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Famalicão vs Gil Vicente | 4 | 0–0 | 2–1Miss | Famalicão win · 46%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Casa Pia vs Moreirense | 4 | 0–1 | 1–1Miss | Casa Pia win · 34%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora | 4 | 2–3 | 2–1Miss | CD Nacional win · 49%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto | 4 | 0–3 | 0–2Miss | FC Porto win · 73%Hit | OverHit | NoHit |
| FC Alverca vs Santa Clara | 4 | 1–1 | 1–1Hit | Santa Clara win · 37%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
| FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo | 4 | 2–1 | 1–1Miss | FC Arouca win · 43%Hit | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Rio Ave vs Sporting CP | 4 | 0–4 | 1–2Miss | Sporting CP win · 64%Hit | OverHit | NoHit |
| Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia | 3 | 2–0 | 2–1Miss | Gil Vicente win · 48%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| FC Porto vs FC Arouca | 3 | 2–0 | 2–0Hit | FC Porto win · 67%Hit | OverMiss | NoHit |
| Santa Clara vs Famalicão | 3 | 1–0 | 1–1Miss | Famalicão win · 35%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Vitória SC vs CD Nacional | 3 | 1–0 | 2–1Miss | Vitória SC win · 54%Hit | OverMiss | YesMiss |
| Sporting CP vs FC Alverca | 3 | 3–1 | 3–0Miss | Sporting CP win · 84%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave | 3 | 0–2 | 1–1Miss | Estoril Praia win · 42%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC | 3 | 2–2 | 2–1Miss | CS Marítimo win · 53%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Casa Pia vs Benfica | 2 | 0–7 | 0–2Miss | Benfica win · 73%Hit | OverHit | NoHit |
| Famalicão vs CS Marítimo | 2 | 1–2 | 2–1Miss | Famalicão win · 48%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| FC Arouca vs Moreirense | 2 | 4–0 | 2–1Miss | FC Arouca win · 50%Hit | UnderMiss | NoHit |
| CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia | 2 | 2–0 | 1–1Miss | CD Nacional win · 41%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Rio Ave vs FC Porto | 2 | 0–2 | 1–2Miss | FC Porto win · 58%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Académico Viseu FC vs Santa Clara | 2 | 0–1 | 1–1Miss | Académico Viseu FC win · 35%Miss | UnderHit | NoHit |
| FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora | 2 | 2–2 | 1–1Miss | FC Alverca win · 46%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Sporting CP vs Vitória SC | 2 | 3–2 | 2–0Miss | Sporting CP win · 72%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Santa Clara vs CD Nacional | 1 | 2–2 | 1–1Miss | Santa Clara win · 40%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave | 1 | 1–0 | 1–1Miss | Gil Vicente win · 39%Hit | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| Moreirense vs Sporting Braga | 1 | 2–2 | 1–1Miss | Sporting Braga win · 36%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Benfica vs Académico Viseu FC | 1 | 2–2 | 3–0Miss | Benfica win · 79%Miss | OverHit | NoMiss |
| FC Porto vs FC Alverca | 1 | 2–0 | 2–0Hit | FC Porto win · 77%Hit | OverMiss | NoHit |
| CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP | 1 | 2–2 | 0–2Miss | Sporting CP win · 74%Miss | OverHit | NoMiss |
| Vitória SC vs FC Arouca | 1 | 0–1 | 1–1Miss | Vitória SC win · 40%Miss | UnderHit | YesMiss |
| CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia | 1 | 1–0 | 2–1Miss | CS Marítimo win · 49%Hit | UnderHit | NoHit |
| Estoril Praia vs Famalicão | 1 | 1–1 | 1–2Miss | Famalicão win · 45%Miss | UnderHit | YesHit |
Liga Portugal performance questions
- What does the Liga Portugal calibration diagram show?
- Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 909 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0309 is the average gap.
- Can I check Liga Portugal results by round?
- Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
- How should I read live Liga Portugal favourite-correct?
- Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 0.9320 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 56%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Liga Portugal
Live season 2026/27 · round 7
Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.
- Matches · with price
- 62 · 62
- Log loss
- 0.9723·0.9471
- RPS
- 0.1914·0.1822
- Brier
- 0.5850·0.5698
- Goal MAE
- 0.89
- 1X2 accuracy
- 45%
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0252
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0092
Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0152
Goals markets
Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 62 · 37 | 0.6668·0.6629Δ -0.0034 | 0.2369·0.2356 | 63% | Model · Closing line |
| Under 2.5 | 62 · 37 | 0.6668·0.6629Δ -0.0034 | 0.2369·0.2356 | 63% | Model · Closing line |
| BTTS | 62 · 37 | 0.7075·0.6926Δ +0.0054 | 0.2568·0.2496 | 52% | Model · Closing line |
Frozen walk-forward goals markets
Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.
| Market | Matches | Log loss | Brier | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 909 | 0.6726 | 0.2399 | 58% |
| Under 2.5 | 909 | 0.6726 | 0.2399 | 58% |
| BTTS | 909 | 0.6950 | 0.2508 | 52% |
The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.