Portugal · v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal model performance

Liga Portugal live sample (2026/27): 28 scored matches, favourite-correct 54%, exact score hits 3. Frozen walk-forward baseline: 909 matches, log loss 0.9354, 1X2 accuracy 56%. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.

Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC

Round ledgers: Round 1 · Round 2 · Round 3 · Round 4

Liga Portugal historical prediction results

Liga Portugal prediction results from Expected90. Live 2026/27: 28 scored matches. Walk-forward log loss 0.9354, 1X2 accuracy 56%. Filter by round. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. We still prefer log loss.

Matches in view: 28
Favourite-correct: 54%
Game pick hit rate: 54%
Exact score hits: 3

Match	Round	Result	Predicted Match Score	Game pick	Over/Under 2.5	BTTS
Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto	4	0–3	0-2Miss	FC Porto winHit	OverHit	NoHit
FC Alverca vs Santa Clara	4	1–1	1-1Hit	DrawHit	UnderHit	YesHit
FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo	4	2–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderMiss	YesHit
Rio Ave vs Sporting CP	4	0–4	1-2Miss	Sporting CP winHit	OverHit	NoHit
Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia	3	2–0	2-1Miss	Gil Vicente winHit	UnderHit	YesMiss
FC Porto vs FC Arouca	3	2–0	2-0Hit	FC Porto winHit	OverMiss	NoHit
Santa Clara vs Famalicão	3	1–0	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Vitória SC vs CD Nacional	3	1–0	2-1Miss	Over 2.5Miss	OverMiss	YesMiss
Sporting CP vs FC Alverca	3	3–1	3-0Miss	Sporting CP winHit	OverHit	NoMiss
Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave	3	0–2	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC	3	2–2	2-1Miss	CS Marítimo winMiss	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Casa Pia vs Benfica	2	0–7	0-2Miss	Benfica winHit	OverHit	NoHit
Famalicão vs CS Marítimo	2	1–2	2-1Miss	Famalicão winMiss	UnderMiss	YesHit
FC Arouca vs Moreirense	2	4–0	2-1Miss	FC Arouca winHit	UnderMiss	NoHit
CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia	2	2–0	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Rio Ave vs FC Porto	2	0–2	1-2Miss	FC Porto winHit	UnderHit	NoHit
Académico Viseu FC vs Santa Clara	2	0–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	NoHit
FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora	2	2–2	1-1Miss	DrawHit	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Sporting CP vs Vitória SC	2	3–2	2-0Miss	Sporting CP winHit	OverHit	NoMiss
Santa Clara vs CD Nacional	1	2–2	1-1Miss	DrawHit	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave	1	1–0	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Moreirense vs Sporting Braga	1	2–2	1-1Miss	DrawHit	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Benfica vs Académico Viseu FC	1	2–2	3-0Miss	Benfica winMiss	OverHit	NoMiss
FC Porto vs FC Alverca	1	2–0	2-0Hit	FC Porto winHit	OverMiss	NoHit
CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP	1	2–2	0-2Miss	Sporting CP winMiss	OverHit	NoMiss
Vitória SC vs FC Arouca	1	0–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia	1	1–0	2-1Miss	CS Marítimo winHit	UnderHit	NoHit
Estoril Praia vs Famalicão	1	1–1	1-2Miss	Famalicão winMiss	UnderHit	YesHit

Liga Portugal · Round 4Sat 29 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Académico Viseu FCvsP

Final 0–3·Predicted 0-2·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

FC: 8%
Draw: 19%
Porto: 73%

xG home: 0.69
xG away: 2.33
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 46%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 4Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Final 1–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Alverca: 31%
Draw: 32%
Clara: 37%

xG home: 1.17
xG away: 1.29
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 4Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Final 2–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Arouca: 43%
Draw: 30%
Marítimo: 27%

xG home: 1.48
xG away: 1.14
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 55%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 4Fri 28 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Final 0–4·Predicted 1-2·Pick Sporting CP win

Hit

Ave: 12%
Draw: 23%
CP: 64%

xG home: 0.81
xG away: 2.04
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 3Mon 24 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Gil VicentevsCP

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Gil Vicente win

Hit

Vicente: 48%
Draw: 30%
Pia: 22%

xG home: 1.51
xG away: 0.96
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sun 23 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-0·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

Porto: 67%
Draw: 22%
Arouca: 10%

xG home: 2.10
xG away: 0.73
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 47%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sun 23 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Final 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Clara: 33%
Draw: 32%
Famalicão: 35%

xG home: 1.19
xG away: 1.21
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 51%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sun 23 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Final 1–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Over 2.5

Miss

SC: 54%
Draw: 22%
Nacional: 24%

xG home: 2.31
xG away: 1.53
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 72%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sat 22 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Final 3–1·Predicted 3-0·Pick Sporting CP win

Hit

CP: 84%
Draw: 12%
Alverca: 4%

xG home: 2.98
xG away: 0.61
Over 2.5: 69%
BTTS: 44%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sat 22 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Estoril PraiavsRA

Final 0–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Praia: 42%
Draw: 31%
Ave: 27%

xG home: 1.40
xG away: 1.08
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sat 22 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

CS MarítimovsAV

Académico Viseu FC

Final 2–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick CS Marítimo win

Miss

Marítimo: 53%
Draw: 29%
FC: 18%

xG home: 1.65
xG away: 0.89
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Mon 17 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Final 0–7·Predicted 0-2·Pick Benfica win

Hit

Pia: 8%
Draw: 19%
Benfica: 73%

xG home: 0.67
xG away: 2.30
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 46%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Final 1–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Famalicão win

Miss

Famalicão: 48%
Draw: 29%
Marítimo: 22%

xG home: 1.58
xG away: 1.01
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 53%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sun 16 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Final 4–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick FC Arouca win

Hit

Arouca: 50%
Draw: 30%
Moreirense: 20%

xG home: 1.54
xG away: 0.92
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sun 16 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

CD NacionalvsEP

Final 2–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Nacional: 41%
Draw: 31%
Praia: 28%

xG home: 1.38
xG away: 1.10
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sat 15 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Final 0–2·Predicted 1-2·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

Ave: 15%
Draw: 27%
Porto: 58%

xG home: 0.79
xG away: 1.71
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 46%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sat 15 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Académico Viseu FCvsSC

Final 0–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

FC: 35%
Draw: 33%
Clara: 32%

xG home: 1.19
xG away: 1.13
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sat 15 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

CF Estrela Amadora

Final 2–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Alverca: 46%
Draw: 31%
Amadora: 23%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 0.95
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 2Fri 14 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Final 3–2·Predicted 2-0·Pick Sporting CP win

Hit

CP: 72%
Draw: 19%
SC: 9%

xG home: 2.37
xG away: 0.75
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Mon 10 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Final 2–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Clara: 40%
Draw: 32%
Nacional: 28%

xG home: 1.30
xG away: 1.05
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Gil VicentevsRA

Final 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Vicente: 39%
Draw: 31%
Ave: 30%

xG home: 1.31
xG away: 1.13
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 51%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Final 2–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Moreirense: 32%
Draw: 32%
Braga: 36%

xG home: 1.14
xG away: 1.22
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Académico Viseu FC

Final 2–2·Predicted 3-0·Pick Benfica win

Miss

Benfica: 79%
Draw: 15%
FC: 6%

xG home: 2.70
xG away: 0.69
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 47%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-0·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

Porto: 77%
Draw: 17%
Alverca: 6%

xG home: 2.47
xG away: 0.63
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 44%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sat 8 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

CF Estrela AmadoravsSC

Final 2–2·Predicted 0-2·Pick Sporting CP win

Miss

Amadora: 8%
Draw: 19%
CP: 74%

xG home: 0.66
xG away: 2.32
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 45%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sat 8 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Final 0–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

SC: 40%
Draw: 30%
Arouca: 30%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 1.19
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 55%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sat 8 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

CS MarítimovsCP

Final 1–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick CS Marítimo win

Hit

Marítimo: 49%
Draw: 30%
Pia: 22%

xG home: 1.53
xG away: 0.94
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal · Round 1Fri 7 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Estoril PraiavsF

Final 1–1·Predicted 1-2·Pick Famalicão win

Miss

Praia: 25%
Draw: 29%
Famalicão: 45%

xG home: 1.08
xG away: 1.52
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 53%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal predictions

Liga Portugal performance questions

How accurate are Liga Portugal predictions?

On 909 walk-forward Liga Portugal matches the frozen model recorded log loss 0.9354, RPS 0.1839 and favourite 1X2 accuracy 56%. Live rounds can look noisier.

Can I check Liga Portugal results by round?

Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 1, 2, 3, 4.

Are Liga Portugal results betting tips?

No. This ledger scores published probabilities after kick-off. Misses stay visible.

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal

Validation

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

Matches: 909
Log loss: 0.9354
RPS: 0.1839
ECE: 0.0326
1X2 accuracy: 56%
Goal MAE: 0.88

Frozen official baseline v1.1.0-p1-elo. 0.5644 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize.

Live season 2026/27 · round 4

Matches scored: 28
Log loss: 0.8985
RPS: 0.1671
1X2 accuracy: 54%
Goal MAE: 0.84

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.