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Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

FC Porto vs FC Alverca Prediction

· Estádio do Dragão · FC Porto predictions · FC Alverca predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 3/4 checks hit
PFC Porto crest

FC Porto

2–0

FC Porto won

AFC Alverca crest

FC Alverca

1X2

FC Porto win

77%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Modal 2-0 · score hit

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted FC Porto win · 77%

Actual FC Porto won

Modal score
Hit

Predicted 2-0

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

PFC Porto crestFC PortovsAFC Alverca crestFC Alverca

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

FC Porto win 77%

FC Porto win
77%
Draw
17%
FC Alverca win
6%
FC Porto win %
77%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
17%
FC Alverca win %
6%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: FC Porto win 77%, from a +341 Elo gap (1789 vs 1448).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.47-0.63.
  3. 3Modal score 2-0 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Cláudio Ramos listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1789 +341 1448

FC Porto vs FC Alverca

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Cláudio Ramos · FC Porto
  • Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto
XI

Confirmed

4-3-3 / 3-4-3

Last 5

FC PortoW L W W W1.94-0.79 xG

FC AlvercaL D L W L0.70-0.78 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

FC Porto win · 77% · Hit

Expected goals

2.47–0.63

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Porto versus FC Alverca
FC Porto goals012345
06%
110%8%2%
214%9%3%
311%7%2%
47%4%
53%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
60%

Under · 2 goals · Miss

BTTS %
44%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-0ModalResult13.7%
  2. 3-011.3%
  3. 1-010.0%
  4. 2-18.7%
  5. 1-18.1%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

PFC Porto crestFC Porto

Out

  • Cláudio Ramos · G · Unknown
  • Samu Aghehowa · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

PFC Porto crestFC Porto4-3-3

  1. 99Diogo CostaG
  2. 4Jakub KiwiorD
  3. 5Jan BednarekD
  4. 12Zaidu SanusiD
  5. 52Martim FernandesD
  6. 8Victor FroholdtM
  7. 10Gabri VeigaM
  8. 22Alan VarelaM
  9. 7William GomesF
  10. 11PepêF
  11. 19André SilvaF

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca3-4-3

  1. 31Matheus MendesG
  2. 4Yaya BojangD
  3. 14Steven BaseyaD
  4. 33Bastien MeupiyouD
  5. 2Nabil TouaiziM
  6. 6Davy GuiM
  7. 12Isaac JamesM
  8. 25Ian LuccasM
  9. 9VivaldoF
  10. 10ChiquinhoF
  11. 22FigueiredoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

PFC Porto crestFC PortoW L W W W

  • H · Santa Clara · 16 May 20261-00.91-0.50 xG
  • A · AVS - Futebol SAD · 10 May 20261-33.19-0.88 xG
  • H · FC Alverca · 2 May 20261-00.65-0.68 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 26 Apr 20262-11.81-1.76 xG
  • H · Tondela · 19 Apr 20262-03.15-0.12 xG

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercaL D L W L

  • A · Famalicão · 16 May 20260-10.45-0.52 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 10 May 20261-11.15-0.87 xG
  • A · FC Porto · 2 May 20260-10.68-0.65 xG
  • H · FC Arouca · 24 Apr 20262-10.85-0.86 xG
  • A · CD Nacional · 18 Apr 20260-10.36-1.01 xG

How to read the FC Porto vs FC Alverca probabilities

FC Porto vs FC Alverca (Liga Portugal, 9 Aug 2026): Strong favourite — FC Porto win 77%. Expected goals are 2.47–0.63. Modal score 2-0 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–0.

FC Porto is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.47–0.63). FC Porto win is 77% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
9 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · FC Porto win
Kick-off
Sun 9 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Porto vs FC Alverca

Who is favourite for FC Porto vs FC Alverca?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is FC Porto win at 77%. Home 77%, draw 17%, away 6%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Porto vs FC Alverca?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Porto vs FC Alverca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Porto vs FC Alverca?

BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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