Who is favourite for FC Porto vs Benfica?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 40%. Home 31%, draw 30%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Porto vs Benfica?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Porto vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Porto vs Benfica?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2026/27

FC Porto vs Benfica prediction

Slight lean

Benfica win 40%

Sun 20 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon · Estádio do Dragão

Published 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

FC PortovsBenfica

Slight lean

Benfica win40%

FC Porto win: 31%
Draw: 30%
Benfica win: 40%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.27–1.47
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Benfica win 40%, from a -4 Elo gap (1801 vs 1805).
2Expected goals 1.27-1.47.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Samu Aghehowa listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1801
-4
1805
Liga Portugal table
Out: FC Porto1 out
Samu Aghehowa
Benfica1 out
Alexander Bah
XI: Last league XI
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: FC Porto
WWWWW
Avg xG 2.37-0.87
Benfica
WWWWW
Avg xG 2.45-0.42

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.2%
2128.8%
3008.6%
4217.7%
5017.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Porto versus Benfica
FC Porto goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	7%	7%	3%
1	6%	14%	9%	4%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:07 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

FC Porto win

Fair

3.26

31% model

Listed

2.67

35% book

Draw

Fair

3.36

30% model

Listed

3.36

28% book

Benfica win

Fair

2.53

40% model

Listed

2.47

38% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.88

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 2.00

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 2.18

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

FC Porto1 out

Samu AghehowaOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Benfica1 out

Alexander BahOutShoulder Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

FC Porto

4-3-3

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Porto

WWWWW

41Casa PiaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.60–1.59
21MoreirenseHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 2.90–0.85
30Académico Viseu FCAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.47–0.79
20FC AroucaHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.92–0.54
20Rio AveAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.97–0.58

Benfica

WWWWW

31Gil VicenteHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.90–1.11
40MoreirenseAway · 9 Sept 2026
xG 2.99–0.39
30CS MarítimoAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–0.12
21Estoril PraiaHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–0.36
70Casa PiaAway · 17 Aug 2026
xG 3.04–0.12

How to read the FC Porto vs Benfica probabilities

FC Porto vs Benfica (Liga Portugal, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Benfica win 40%. Expected goals are 1.27–1.47. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

FC Porto and Benfica are close on expected goals (1.27–1.47), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Benfica win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about FC Porto vs Benfica

Who is favourite for FC Porto vs Benfica?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 40%. Home 31%, draw 30%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Porto vs Benfica?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will FC Porto vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Porto vs Benfica?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.