Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction

Fri 28 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon · Estádio do Rio Ave FC · Rio Ave predictions · Sporting CP predictions

Confirmed XI snapshot 28 Aug 2026, 18:42 UTC · pre-lineup kept · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 3/4 checks hit

Rio Ave

0–4

Sporting CP won

Sporting CP

1X2

Sporting CP win

64%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Modal 0-2 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Sporting CP win · 64%

Actual Sporting CP won

Modal score

Miss

Predicted 0-2

Actual 0–4

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Rio AvevsSC

Sporting CP

Win probabilities

Clear lean

Sporting CP win 64%

Rio Ave win: 12%
Draw: 23%
Sporting CP win: 64%

Rio Ave win %: 12%
Draw %: 23%
Sporting CP win %: 64%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Sporting CP win 64%, from a -353 Elo gap (1459 vs 1812).
2Expected goals 0.81-2.04.
3Modal score 0-2 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Brandon Aguilera listed out and 2 other absences.

Elo

1459 -353 1812

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Liga Portugal table

Out

Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave
Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Rio AveW L L D L0.64-1.76 xG

Sporting CPW W D W W1.81-0.85 xG

Before XI vs confirmed

Confirmed XI is a second freeze. The pre-lineup numbers stay on this page and are not rewritten.

Before XI

13% / 24% / 63%

Rio Ave · draw · Sporting CP

λ 0.81–2.00

26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC

Confirmed

12% / 23% / 64%

Rio Ave · draw · Sporting CP

λ 0.81–2.04

28 Aug 2026, 18:42 UTC

Modal score

0-2

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Sporting CP win · 64% · Hit

Expected goals

0.81–2.04

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Rio Ave versus Sporting CP
Rio Ave goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	7%	10%	12%	8%	4%
1	3%	11%	10%	7%	3%
2		4%	4%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 54%
BTTS %: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

0-2Modal12.0%
1-111.2%
0-110.1%
1-29.8%
0-38.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RARio Ave crestRio Ave

Out

Brandon Aguilera · M · Anterior Cruciate Ligament
Cezary Miszta · G · Back Injury
Ryan Guilherme · M · Unknown

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

RARio Ave crestRio Ave4-2-3-1

99Ennio Van Der GouwG
5Andreas NdojD
17Marios VrousaiD
23Francisco PetrassoD
39Gustavo ManchaD
7Diogo BezerraM
11Jalen BlesaM
44Tamás NikitscherM
54Georgios LiavasM
77Dario ŠpikićM
9Tamblé MonteiroF

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP4-2-3-1

1Rui SilvaG
6Zeno DebastD
20Maximiliano AraújoD
22Iván FresnedaD
25Gonçalo InácioD
5Sergi AltimiraM
10Geny CatamoM
17Rodrigo ZalazarM
58Flávio GonçalvesM
77Issa DoumbiaM
97Luis Javier SuárezF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RARio Ave crestRio AveW L L D L

A · Estoril Praia · 22 Aug 20262-00.70-1.16 xG
H · FC Porto · 15 Aug 20260-20.58-1.97 xG
A · Gil Vicente · 9 Aug 20260-10.19-1.66 xG
A · Casa Pia · 16 May 20261-10.75-2.45 xG
H · Sporting CP · 11 May 20261-40.97-1.56 xG

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPW W D W W

H · FC Alverca · 22 Aug 20263-12.12-0.41 xG
H · Vitória SC · 14 Aug 20263-21.12-1.12 xG
A · CF Estrela Amadora · 8 Aug 20262-22.63-1.10 xG
H · Gil Vicente · 16 May 20263-01.61-0.64 xG
A · Rio Ave · 11 May 20264-11.56-0.97 xG

How to read the Rio Ave vs Sporting CP probabilities

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP (Liga Portugal, 28 Aug 2026): Clear lean — Sporting CP win 64%. Expected goals are 0.81–2.04. Modal score 0-2 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–4.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.81–2.04). Sporting CP win is 64% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 0-2 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 28 Aug 2026, 18:42 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Pre-lineup snapshot: 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Sporting CP win
Kick-off: Fri 28 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Who is favourite for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 64%. Home 12%, draw 23%, away 64%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

Did the Rio Ave vs Sporting CP probabilities change after the XI?

Before XI the grid was home 13%, draw 24%, away 63%. The confirmed snapshot is home 12%, draw 23%, away 64%. Both freezes stay on the page; neither is rewritten after kick-off.

What is the most likely score for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

0-2 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.