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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

Famalicão vs Gil Vicente prediction

Slight lean

Famalicão win 46%

· Estádio Municipal de Famalicão

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 1/4 checks hit

Famalicão

0–0

Draw

Gil Vicente

1X2

Famalicão win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 46%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

FamalicãovsGil Vicente
Slight lean

Famalicão win46%

Famalicão win
46%
Draw
30%
Gil Vicente win
24%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 15%

Expected goals
1.49–1.04

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
46%

Under · 0 goals · Hit

BTTS
52%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Famalicão win 46%, from a +44 Elo gap (1538 vs 1494).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.49-1.04.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 15%.

Match briefing

Elo

1538

+44

1494

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

13 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Famalicão

LLDWD

Avg xG 1.12-0.95

Gil Vicente

WWLLD

Avg xG 1.10-1.06

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal14.5%
  2. 200Result10.1%
  3. 3109.7%
  4. 421Prediction9.2%
  5. 5208.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Famalicão versus Gil Vicente
Famalicão goals012345
010%6%4%
110%15%6%2%
29%9%5%
34%5%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Famalicão win

Famalicão win: model 46%, fair 2.20, listed 1.89 (51%)

Fair

2.20

46% model

Listed

1.89

51% book

Draw

Draw: model 30%, fair 3.30, listed 3.33 (29%)

Fair

3.30

30% model

Listed

3.33

29% book

Gil Vicente win

Gil Vicente win: model 24%, fair 4.14, listed 5.00 (19%)

Fair

4.14

24% model

Listed

5.00

19% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 46%, fair 2.16, listed 2.28 (42%)

Fair
2.16
Listed
2.28

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 54%, fair 1.86, listed 1.67 (58%)

Fair
1.86
Listed
1.67

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 52%, fair 1.92, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair
1.92
Listed
1.95

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 48%, fair 2.09, listed 1.80 (52%)

Fair
2.09
Listed
1.80

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 30 Aug 2026, 15:24 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Famalicão

  1. 25 Lazar Carević · G
  2. 3 Léo Realpe · D
  3. 16 Justin De Haas · D · changed
  4. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro · D
  5. 55 Rafa Soares · D · changed
  6. 6 Tom Van De Looi · M · changed
  7. 7 Sorriso · M
  8. 14 Mathias De Amorim · M
  9. 20 Gustavo Sá · M · changed
  10. 23 Gil Dias · M
  11. 12 Simon Elisor · F · changed

Gil Vicente

  1. 99 Dani Figueira · G · changed
  2. 2 Zé Carlos · D · changed
  3. 3 Ghislain Konan · D · changed
  4. 4 Marvin Elimbi Gilbert · D
  5. 39 Jonathan Buatu · D
  6. 5 Facundo Cáseres · M
  7. 6 Zé Carlos · M · changed
  8. 10 Luís Esteves · M · changed
  9. 10 Santi García · M · changed
  10. 77 Murilo · M · changed
  11. 89 Gustavo Varela · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed13 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Lazar Carević · G
  2. 3 Léo Realpe · D
  3. 4 Finn van Breemen · D · changed
  4. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro · D
  5. 28 Pedro Bondo · D · changed
  6. 7 Sorriso · M
  7. 8 Marcos Peña · M · changed
  8. 14 Mathias De Amorim · M
  9. 19 Paulo Moreira · M · changed
  10. 23 Gil Dias · M
  11. 70 Georgios Koutsias · F · changed

Gil Vicente

4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Lucão · G · changed
  2. 4 Marvin Elimbi Gilbert · D
  3. 26 Weverson · D · changed
  4. 39 Jonathan Buatu · D
  5. 47 Ricardo Esgaio · D · changed
  6. 5 Facundo Cáseres · M
  7. 11 Joelson Fernandes · M · changed
  8. 20 Gil Martins · M · changed
  9. 32 Martin Fernández · M · changed
  10. 86 Diogo Prioste · M · changed
  11. 23 Héctor Hernández · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Famalicão

LLDWD
  • 01Santa ClaraAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.05–1.36

  • 12CS MarítimoHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.59–1.61

  • 11Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Aug 2026

    xG 1.47–1.06

  • 10FC AlvercaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.52–0.45

  • 00CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 1.97–0.26

Gil Vicente

WWLLD
  • 20Casa PiaHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–0.76

  • 10Rio AveHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.66–0.19

  • 03Sporting CPAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.64–1.61

  • 13FC AroucaHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.77–1.32

  • 00Rio AveAway · 3 May 2026

    xG 0.70–1.40

How to read the Famalicão vs Gil Vicente probabilities

Famalicão vs Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal, 30 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Famalicão win 46%. Expected goals are 1.49–1.04. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 15%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.49–1.04). That shows up as Famalicão win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 15%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 15:24 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Famalicão vs Gil Vicente

Who is favourite for Famalicão vs Gil Vicente?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 30%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Famalicão vs Gil Vicente?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Famalicão vs Gil Vicente go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Famalicão vs Gil Vicente?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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