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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

FC Arouca vs Moreirense prediction

Slight lean

FC Arouca win 50%

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit

FC Arouca

4–0

FC Arouca won

Moreirense

1X2

FC Arouca win

50%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted FC Arouca win · 50%

Actual FC Arouca won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 4–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

FC AroucavsMoreirense
Slight lean

FC Arouca win50%

FC Arouca win
50%
Draw
30%
Moreirense win
20%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 14%

Expected goals
1.54–0.92

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS
49%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: FC Arouca win 50%, from a +22 Elo gap (1500 vs 1478).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.54-0.92.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
  4. 4Diogo Monteiro suspended.

Match briefing

Elo

1500

+22

1478

Liga Portugal table
Out

FC Arouca1 out

  • Diogo MonteiroSuspended

MoreirenseNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

6 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

FC Arouca

WWWDL

Avg xG 1.07-1.23

Moreirense

DDLWL

Avg xG 0.87-1.90

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal14.2%
  2. 21011.1%
  3. 30010.7%
  4. 42010.1%
  5. 521Prediction9.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Arouca versus Moreirense
FC Arouca goals012345
011%6%4%
111%14%6%
210%9%4%
35%5%2%
42%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

FC Arouca win

FC Arouca win: model 50%, fair 2.02, listed 1.81 (52%)

Fair

2.02

50% model

Listed

1.81

52% book

Draw

Draw: model 30%, fair 3.34, listed 3.46 (27%)

Fair

3.34

30% model

Listed

3.46

27% book

Moreirense win

Moreirense win: model 20%, fair 4.88, listed 4.47 (21%)

Fair

4.88

20% model

Listed

4.47

21% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

FC Arouca1 out

  • Diogo MonteiroSuspendedyellow or red card suspension

MoreirenseNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

FC Arouca

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 15 Javi Sánchez · D
  4. 25 Bas Kuipers · D · changed
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 10 Pablo Gozálbez · M · changed
  10. 14 Hyun-ju Lee · M
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F

Moreirense

  1. 13 André Ferreira · G
  2. 7 Diogo Travassos · D · changed
  3. 26 Maracás · D
  4. 27 Kiko · D
  5. 66 Gilberto Batista · D
  6. 70 Fabiano Souza · D · changed
  7. 10 Alan · M · changed
  8. 10 Kiko Bondoso · M · changed
  9. 21 Rodrigo Alonso · M
  10. 23 Nile John · M
  11. 11 Landerson · F
Confirmed XIConfirmed6 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

FC Arouca

4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 15 Javi Sánchez · D
  4. 18 Orest Lebedenko · D · changed
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 14 Hyun-ju Lee · M
  10. 19 Alfonso Trezza · M · changed
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F

Moreirense

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 André Ferreira · G
  2. 2 Leandro Santos · D · changed
  3. 26 Maracás · D
  4. 27 Kiko · D
  5. 66 Gilberto Batista · D
  6. 11 Landerson · M
  7. 21 Rodrigo Alonso · M
  8. 23 Nile John · M
  9. 65 Guilherme Liberato · M · changed
  10. 89 Afonso Vieira · M · changed
  11. 9 Alexandre Parsemain · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Arouca

WWWDL
  • 10Vitória SCAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 0.43–2.28

  • 31TondelaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.77–0.62

  • 31Gil VicenteAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 1.32–0.77

  • 22Santa ClaraHome · 2 May 2026

    xG 0.96–1.61

  • 12FC AlvercaAway · 24 Apr 2026

    xG 0.86–0.85

Moreirense

DDLWL
  • 22Sporting BragaHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.22–1.32

  • 00AVS - Futebol SADHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.09–1.98

  • 02TondelaAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.29–1.39

  • 32CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 2 May 2026

    xG 1.87–2.83

  • 14BenficaAway · 25 Apr 2026

    xG 0.89–1.99

How to read the FC Arouca vs Moreirense probabilities

FC Arouca vs Moreirense (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean. FC Arouca win 50%. Expected goals are 1.54–0.92. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 4–0.

FC Arouca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.54–0.92). That shows up as FC Arouca win at 50%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · FC Arouca win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Arouca vs Moreirense

Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs Moreirense?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 50%. Home 50%, draw 30%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs Moreirense?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will FC Arouca vs Moreirense go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs Moreirense?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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All Liga Portugal predictions