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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

FC Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca · FC Arouca predictions · Moreirense predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit
AFC Arouca crest

FC Arouca

4–0

FC Arouca won

MMoreirense crest

Moreirense

1X2

FC Arouca win

50%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted FC Arouca win · 50%

Actual FC Arouca won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 4–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucavsMMoreirense crestMoreirense

Win probabilities

Slight lean

FC Arouca win 50%

FC Arouca win
50%
Draw
30%
Moreirense win
20%
FC Arouca win %
50%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
30%
Moreirense win %
20%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: FC Arouca win 50%, from a +22 Elo gap (1500 vs 1478).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.54-0.92.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Diogo Monteiro suspended.
Elo

1500 +22 1478

FC Arouca vs Moreirense

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Diogo Monteiro · FC Arouca
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

FC AroucaW W W D L1.07-1.23 xG

MoreirenseD D L W L0.87-1.90 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

FC Arouca win · 50% · Hit

Expected goals

1.54–0.92

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Arouca versus Moreirense
FC Arouca goals012345
011%6%4%
111%14%6%
210%9%4%
35%5%2%
42%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS %
49%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.2%
  2. 1-011.1%
  3. 0-010.7%
  4. 2-010.1%
  5. 2-19.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca

Suspended

  • Diogo Monteiro · D · yellow or red card suspension

MMoreirense crestMoreirense

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca4-2-3-1

  1. 12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaG
  2. 3Jose FontánD
  3. 15Javi SánchezD
  4. 18Orest LebedenkoD
  5. 28Tiago EsgaioD
  6. 6Espen Van EeM
  7. 7Naïs DjouahraM
  8. 8Taichi FukuiM
  9. 14Hyun-ju LeeM
  10. 19Alfonso TrezzaM
  11. 17Ivan BarberoF

MMoreirense crestMoreirense4-2-3-1

  1. 13André FerreiraG
  2. 2Leandro SantosD
  3. 26MaracásD
  4. 27KikoD
  5. 66Gilberto BatistaD
  6. 11LandersonM
  7. 21Rodrigo AlonsoM
  8. 23Nile JohnM
  9. 65Guilherme LiberatoM
  10. 89Afonso VieiraM
  11. 9Alexandre ParsemainF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucaW W W D L

  • A · Vitória SC · 8 Aug 20261-00.43-2.28 xG
  • H · Tondela · 16 May 20263-11.77-0.62 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 11 May 20263-11.32-0.77 xG
  • H · Santa Clara · 2 May 20262-20.96-1.61 xG
  • A · FC Alverca · 24 Apr 20261-20.86-0.85 xG

MMoreirense crestMoreirenseD D L W L

  • H · Sporting Braga · 9 Aug 20262-20.22-1.32 xG
  • H · AVS - Futebol SAD · 16 May 20260-01.09-1.98 xG
  • A · Tondela · 11 May 20260-20.29-1.39 xG
  • H · CF Estrela Amadora · 2 May 20263-21.87-2.83 xG
  • A · Benfica · 25 Apr 20261-40.89-1.99 xG

How to read the FC Arouca vs Moreirense probabilities

FC Arouca vs Moreirense (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean — FC Arouca win 50%. Expected goals are 1.54–0.92. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 4–0.

FC Arouca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.54–0.92). That shows up as FC Arouca win at 50%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · FC Arouca win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Arouca vs Moreirense

Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs Moreirense?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 50%. Home 50%, draw 30%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs Moreirense?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Arouca vs Moreirense go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs Moreirense?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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