Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Santa Clara win at 37%. Home 31%, draw 32%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Alverca vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

FC Alverca vs Santa Clara prediction

Slight lean

Santa Clara win 37%

Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Published 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 3/4 checks hit

FC Alverca

1–1

Draw

Santa Clara

1X2

Santa Clara win

37%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score hit

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Santa Clara win · 37%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Hit

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FC AlvercavsSanta Clara

Slight lean

Santa Clara win37%

FC Alverca win: 31%
Draw: 32%
Santa Clara win: 37%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.17–1.29
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Santa Clara win 37%, from a -43 Elo gap (1443 vs 1486).
2Expected goals 1.17-1.29.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Chiquinho suspended and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1443
-43
1486
Liga Portugal table
Out: FC Alverca2 out
ChiquinhoSuspended
Bastien Meupiyou
Santa ClaraNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
10 changes from the expected XI
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: FC Alverca
LDLLD
Avg xG 1.08-1.48
Santa Clara
WWDLW
Avg xG 1.22-0.94

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111PredictionResult15.2%
20010.8%
3018.8%
4128.3%
5107.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Alverca versus Santa Clara
FC Alverca goals	0	1	2	3
0	11%	9%	7%	3%
1	8%	15%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%
3	2%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:31 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

FC Alverca win

Fair

3.19

31% model

Listed

2.38

41% book

Draw

Fair

3.15

32% model

Listed

3.20

30% book

Santa Clara win

Fair

2.71

37% model

Listed

3.32

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.25
Listed: 2.40

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.62

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.95

BTTS no

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 1.77

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

FC Alverca2 out

ChiquinhoSuspendedred card suspension
Bastien MeupiyouOutUnknown

Santa ClaraNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

FC Alverca

Santa Clara

Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

FC Alverca

3-4-2-1

Santa Clara

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Alverca

LDLLD

13Sporting CPAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.41–2.12
22CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.75–1.29
02FC PortoAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.66–2.59
01FamalicãoAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.45–0.52
11Estoril PraiaHome · 10 May 2026
xG 1.15–0.87

Santa Clara

WWDLW

10FamalicãoHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–1.05
10Académico Viseu FCAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.27–0.58
22CD NacionalHome · 10 Aug 2026
xG 1.43–1.23
01FC PortoAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.50–0.91
20CD NacionalHome · 11 May 2026
xG 1.53–0.92

How to read the FC Alverca vs Santa Clara probabilities

FC Alverca vs Santa Clara (Liga Portugal, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Santa Clara win 37%. Expected goals are 1.17–1.29. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

FC Alverca and Santa Clara are close on expected goals (1.17–1.29), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Santa Clara win
Kick-off: Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about FC Alverca vs Santa Clara

Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Santa Clara win at 37%. Home 31%, draw 32%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will FC Alverca vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.