Who is favourite for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 35%. Home 33%, draw 32%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Santa Clara vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Santa Clara vs Famalicão?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Santa Clara vs Famalicão prediction

Balanced

Famalicão win 35%

Sun 23 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon · Estadio de São Miguel

Published 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit

Santa Clara

1–0

Santa Clara won

Famalicão

1X2

Famalicão win

35%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 35%

Actual Santa Clara won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Santa ClaravsFamalicão

Balanced

Famalicão win35%

Santa Clara win: 33%
Draw: 32%
Famalicão win: 35%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.19–1.21
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Famalicão win 35%, from a -89 Elo gap (1470 vs 1559).
2Expected goals 1.19-1.21.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1470
-89
1559
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Santa Clara
DLWDW
Avg xG 1.58-0.84
Famalicão
DWDDW
Avg xG 1.34-0.70

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction15.3%
20011.3%
3018.7%
410Result8.5%
5127.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Santa Clara versus Famalicão
Santa Clara goals	0	1	2	3
0	11%	9%	7%	3%
1	8%	15%	8%	3%
2	6%	8%	5%
3	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:31 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Santa Clara win

Fair

3.00

33% model

Listed

2.97

33% book

Draw

Fair

3.11

32% model

Listed

3.03

32% book

Famalicão win

Fair

2.90

35% model

Listed

2.76

35% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 8 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Santa Clara

Famalicão

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Santa Clara

4-2-3-1

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Santa Clara

DLWDW

22CD NacionalHome · 10 Aug 2026
xG 1.43–1.23
01FC PortoAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.50–0.91
20CD NacionalHome · 11 May 2026
xG 1.53–0.92
22FC AroucaAway · 2 May 2026
xG 1.61–0.96
21Sporting BragaHome · 26 Apr 2026
xG 2.84–0.17

Famalicão

DWDDW

11Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Aug 2026
xG 1.47–1.06
10FC AlvercaHome · 16 May 2026
xG 0.52–0.45
00CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 11 May 2026
xG 1.97–0.26
22BenficaHome · 2 May 2026
xG 1.58–1.29
10Estoril PraiaAway · 26 Apr 2026
xG 1.15–0.44

How to read the Santa Clara vs Famalicão probabilities

Santa Clara vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 23 Aug 2026): Balanced. Famalicão win 35%. Expected goals are 1.19–1.21. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Santa Clara and Famalicão are close on expected goals (1.19–1.21), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Famalicão win
Kick-off: Sun 23 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Santa Clara vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 35%. Home 33%, draw 32%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Santa Clara vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Santa Clara vs Famalicão?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.