A public ledger of football probabilities
Expected90 exists so a match forecast can be read, shared, and later checked, without looking like a tipster shop.
Most football prediction pages sell a winner. We publish a distribution: expected goals, home/draw/away shares, the predicted score, Over 2.5 and BTTS, plus the time the numbers were generated.
The product is a probability site for football matches, not a two-league experiment. A competition goes live when its official model is frozen. Today that is Liga Portugal, La Liga, Premier League, Allsvenskan, Ligue 1, and Serie A. Each live league has a public Elo table. Extra markets and more leagues are still in development. Kick-off times are shown in Europe/Lisbon. Additional leagues can be added as JSON without changing match URL structure.
Freeze is the product rule. Upcoming cards in the next seven days can be refit when a new league result lands, using only finished league matches before the cutoff. Cups, Europe, and friendlies stay out of the production fit. After kick-off the published probabilities do not move; only the score is joined. If SofaScore confirms a starting XI before kick-off, a second snapshot is stored. The pre-lineup freeze stays on the match URL as “Before XI”.
Who builds the model
Pedro Aquino is the founder and modeller. He fits the official Dixon-Coles grids, freezes a league only when the walk-forward baseline exists, and publishes the miss next to the hit. Public profile: github.com/paquino11.
The byline on a match page is still the model version and the freeze timestamp, not a guru quote. Naming the modeller is for accountability: if a round is noisy, the person who froze the baseline is visible. It is not a claim that a named human beats the grid, and it is not betting advice.
How the grid is built is on methodology. Walk-forward log loss, ranked probability score, and expected calibration error sit on results. A dated quote of those numbers is the scored ledger note. Favourite-correct is published last, after proper scoring rules, because a 55% favourite is allowed to miss.
There are no accounts and no betting desk. A watchlist, if you use one, lives in this browser. Mail for a broken match URL, a result that has not joined, or indexing notes goes to hello@expected90.com. Privacy and terms: privacy · terms.
Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.