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Portugal · v1.1.0-p1-elo · Round 1

Liga Portugal round 1 results

Liga Portugal round 1 has 9 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 33%; exact score hits 2. Favourites that did not land: Santa Clara vs CD Nacional; Moreirense vs Sporting Braga; Benfica vs Académico Viseu FC; CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP; Vitória SC vs FC Arouca; Estoril Praia vs Famalicão. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC

Liga Portugal reliability

Round 1 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 45% (174 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 44% (263 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (194 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 71% (122 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 71% (82 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 87% (63 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (11 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Liga Portugal: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 909 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 82 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9354
RPS
0.1839
Walk-forward
909
1X2 accuracy
56%
Goal MAE
0.88
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%45%174+8%
40–50%45%44%263−1%
50–60%55%55%194+0%
60–70%65%71%122+6%
70–80%75%71%82−4%
80–90%85%87%63+3%
90–100%92%100%11+8%
Jump to roundAll1234

Liga Portugal round 1 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
9
Favourite-correct
33%
Exact score hits
2

All Liga Portugal resultsNext: round 2

Liga Portugal predictions

Liga Portugal round 1 questions

How did Expected90 do in Liga Portugal round 1?

9 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 33% and 2 exact scores hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.

Where are the Liga Portugal round 1 match pages?

Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.

Can I see other Liga Portugal rounds?

Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4.

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal

Live season 2026/27 · round 4

Matches scored
28
Log loss
0.8985
RPS
0.1671
Goal MAE
0.84
1X2 accuracy
54%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.