Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is CD Nacional win at 36%. Home 36%, draw 32%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CD Nacional vs FC Alverca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

CD Nacional vs FC Alverca prediction

Balanced

CD Nacional win 36%

Sat 12 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon · Estádio da Madeira

Published 10 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 6 · 1/4 checks hit

CD Nacional

1–3

FC Alverca won

FC Alverca

1X2

CD Nacional win

36%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted CD Nacional win · 36%

Actual FC Alverca won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–3

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CD NacionalvsFC Alverca

Balanced

CD Nacional win36%

CD Nacional win: 36%
Draw: 32%
FC Alverca win: 32%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.32–1.25
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: CD Nacional win 36%, from a -47 Elo gap (1391 vs 1438).
2Expected goals 1.32-1.25.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Bastien Meupiyou listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: 1391
-47
1438
Liga Portugal table
Out: CD NacionalNone out
No listed absences
FC Alverca1 out
Bastien Meupiyou
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/3-4-3
Last 5: CD Nacional
LLLWD
Avg xG 0.95-2.15
FC Alverca
LDLDL
Avg xG 1.10-1.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction15.2%
20010.2%
3218.3%
4127.9%
5107.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CD Nacional versus FC Alverca
CD Nacional goals	0	1	2	3
0	10%	7%	6%	2%
1	8%	15%	8%	3%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%
3	3%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:31 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CD Nacional win

Fair

2.78

36% model

Listed

2.90

34% book

Draw

Fair

3.16

32% model

Listed

3.40

29% book

FC Alverca win

Fair

3.09

32% model

Listed

2.61

37% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.11
Listed: 2.03

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.90
Listed: 1.83

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.75

BTTS no

Fair: 2.21
Listed: 1.98

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CD NacionalNone out

No listed absences.

FC Alverca1 out

Bastien MeupiyouOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 10 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

CD Nacional

FC Alverca

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

CD Nacional

4-2-3-1

FC Alverca

3-4-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CD Nacional

LLLWD

02Sporting CPAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.08–3.00
23CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.92–2.34
01Vitória SCAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–3.14
20Estoril PraiaHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 2.08–0.82
22Santa ClaraAway · 10 Aug 2026
xG 1.23–1.43

FC Alverca

LDLDL

12Sporting BragaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.08–2.27
11Santa ClaraHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.61–1.49
13Sporting CPAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.41–2.12
22CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.75–1.29
02FC PortoAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.66–2.59

How to read the CD Nacional vs FC Alverca probabilities

CD Nacional vs FC Alverca (Liga Portugal, 12 Sept 2026): Balanced. CD Nacional win 36%. Expected goals are 1.32–1.25. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–3.

CD Nacional and FC Alverca are close on expected goals (1.32–1.25), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 10 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 442
Verdict: Balanced · CD Nacional win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about CD Nacional vs FC Alverca

Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is CD Nacional win at 36%. Home 36%, draw 32%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CD Nacional vs FC Alverca go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.