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Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

CD Nacional vs FC Alverca Prediction

Balanced

CD Nacional win 36%

· Estádio da Madeira

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

CD Nacional crestCD NacionalvsFC Alverca crestFC Alverca
Balanced

CD Nacional win36%

CD Nacional win
36%
Draw
32%
FC Alverca win
32%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15%

Expected goals
1.34–1.24

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
48%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: CD Nacional win 36%, from a -47 Elo gap (1391 vs 1438).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.34-1.24.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Bastien Meupiyou listed out.

Match briefing

Elo
CD Nacional crest

1391

-47

FC Alverca crest

1438

Liga Portugal table
Out

CD Nacional crestCD NacionalNone out

No listed absences

FC Alverca crestFC Alverca1 out

  • Bastien Meupiyou
XI
Last league XI
3-4-2-1/3-4-3
Last 5

CD Nacional crestCD Nacional

LLLWD

Avg xG 0.95-2.15

FC Alverca crestFC Alverca

LDLDL

Avg xG 1.10-1.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction15.1%
  2. 20010.1%
  3. 3218.4%
  4. 4127.8%
  5. 5107.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CD Nacional versus FC Alverca
CD Nacional goals012345
010%7%6%2%
18%15%8%3%
27%8%5%2%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CD Nacional win

CD Nacional win: model 36%, fair 2.74, listed 2.65 (35%)

Fair

2.74

36% model

Listed

2.65

35% book

Draw

Draw: model 32%, fair 3.17, listed 3.21 (29%)

Fair

3.17

32% model

Listed

3.21

29% book

FC Alverca win

FC Alverca win: model 32%, fair 3.12, listed 2.57 (36%)

Fair

3.12

32% model

Listed

2.57

36% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 48%, fair 2.10, listed 2.00 (48%)

Fair
2.10
Listed
2.00

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 52%, fair 1.91, listed 1.82 (52%)

Fair
1.91
Listed
1.82

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.82, listed 1.72 (54%)

Fair
1.82
Listed
1.72

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.22, listed 1.99 (46%)

Fair
2.22
Listed
1.99

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CD Nacional crestCD NacionalNone out

No listed absences.

FC Alverca crestFC Alverca1 out

  • Bastien MeupiyouOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

CD Nacional crestCD Nacional

3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Renato Marin · G
  2. 33 Francisco Gonçalves · D
  3. 34 Léo Santos · D
  4. 38 Ze Vitor · D
  5. 6 Matheus Dias · M
  6. 8 Miguel Baeza · M
  7. 21 Williams Kokolo · M
  8. 52 Wesley Gasolina · M
  9. 7 Markus Jensen · F
  10. 11 Stavros Gavriel · F
  11. 99 Pablo Messias Cardozo · F

FC Alverca crestFC Alverca

3-4-3

  1. 31 Matheus Mendes · G
  2. 4 Yaya Bojang · D
  3. 14 Steven Baseya · D
  4. 21 Sergi Gómez · D
  5. 12 Isaac James · M
  6. 25 Ian Luccas · M
  7. 27 Toni Tamarit · M
  8. 35 Rayan Lucas · M
  9. 9 Vivaldo · F
  10. 10 Chiquinho · F
  11. 22 Figueiredo · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CD Nacional crestCD Nacional

LLLWD
  • 02Sporting CPAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.08–3.00

  • 23CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.92–2.34

  • 01Vitória SCAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–3.14

  • 20Estoril PraiaHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.08–0.82

  • 22Santa ClaraAway · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 1.23–1.43

FC Alverca crestFC Alverca

LDLDL
  • 12Sporting BragaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.08–2.27

  • 11Santa ClaraHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.61–1.49

  • 13Sporting CPAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.41–2.12

  • 22CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.75–1.29

  • 02FC PortoAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.66–2.59

How to read the CD Nacional vs FC Alverca probabilities

CD Nacional vs FC Alverca (Liga Portugal, 12 Sept 2026): Balanced. CD Nacional win 36%. Expected goals are 1.34–1.24. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

CD Nacional and FC Alverca are close on expected goals (1.34–1.24), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 48%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Balanced · CD Nacional win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CD Nacional vs FC Alverca

Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is CD Nacional win at 36%. Home 36%, draw 32%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CD Nacional vs FC Alverca go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs FC Alverca?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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