Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 30%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia prediction

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win 49%

Sat 8 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon · Estadio do Maritimo

Published 8 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 3/4 checks hit

CS Marítimo

1–0

CS Marítimo won

Casa Pia

1X2

CS Marítimo win

49%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted CS Marítimo win · 49%

Actual CS Marítimo won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CS MarítimovsCasa Pia

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win49%

CS Marítimo win: 49%
Draw: 30%
Casa Pia win: 22%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.53–0.94
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: CS Marítimo win 49%, from a -39 Elo gap (1398 vs 1437).
2Expected goals 1.53-0.94.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1398
-39
1437
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Confirmed
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: CS Marítimo
LWLDL
Avg xG 0.00-0.00
Casa Pia
DWLLL
Avg xG 1.08-1.12

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal14.0%
210Result11.1%
30010.3%
4209.8%
521Prediction9.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for CS Marítimo versus Casa Pia
CS Marítimo goals	0	1	2
0	10%	6%	4%
1	11%	14%	6%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	5%	5%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 13 Sept 2026, 20:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CS Marítimo win

Fair

2.04

49% model

Listed

1.89

49% book

Draw

Fair

3.39

30% model

Listed

3.33

28% book

Casa Pia win

Fair

4.65

22% model

Listed

4.05

23% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Confirmed XI

Confirmed

SofaScore's confirmed elevens. The expected XI this forecast used was not stored with the freeze.

CS Marítimo

4-2-3-1

Casa Pia

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CS Marítimo

LWLDL

13Estoril PraiaAway · 27 May 2023
xG 0.00–0.00
10VizelaHome · 19 May 2023
12Sporting CPAway · 13 May 2023
22Rio AveHome · 7 May 2023
xG 0.00–0.00
12Vitória SCHome · 29 Apr 2023
xG 0.00–0.00

Casa Pia

DWLLL

11Rio AveHome · 16 May 2026
xG 2.45–0.75
10Vitória SCAway · 11 May 2026
xG 0.88–0.94
01TondelaHome · 3 May 2026
xG 0.38–1.53
12Gil VicenteAway · 27 Apr 2026
xG 1.21–1.88
01Sporting BragaHome · 23 Apr 2026
xG 0.49–0.48

How to read the CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia probabilities

CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 8 Aug 2026): Slight lean. CS Marítimo win 49%. Expected goals are 1.53–0.94. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–0.

CS Marítimo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.53–0.94). That shows up as CS Marítimo win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 8 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · CS Marítimo win
Kick-off: Sat 8 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 30%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.