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Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia Prediction

· Estadio do Maritimo · CS Marítimo predictions · Casa Pia predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 3/4 checks hit
CMCS Marítimo crest

CS Marítimo

1–0

CS Marítimo won

CPCasa Pia crest

Casa Pia

1X2

CS Marítimo win

49%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted CS Marítimo win · 49%

Actual CS Marítimo won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimovsCPCasa Pia crestCasa Pia

Win probabilities

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win 49%

CS Marítimo win
49%
Draw
30%
Casa Pia win
22%
CS Marítimo win %
49%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
30%
Casa Pia win %
22%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: CS Marítimo win 49%, from a -39 Elo gap (1398 vs 1437).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.53-0.94.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1398 -39 1437

CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

Last 5

CS MarítimoL W L D L0.00-0.00 xG

Casa PiaD W L L L1.08-1.12 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

CS Marítimo win · 49% · Hit

Expected goals

1.53–0.94

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CS Marítimo versus Casa Pia
CS Marítimo goals012345
010%6%4%
111%14%6%
210%9%4%
35%5%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS %
50%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.0%
  2. 1-0Result11.1%
  3. 0-010.3%
  4. 2-09.8%
  5. 2-19.3%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo4-2-3-1

  1. 13Alfonso PastorG
  2. 2Igor JuliãoD
  3. 4Rafael FernandesD
  4. 23Paulo HenriqueD
  5. 44Romain CorreiaD
  6. 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  7. 10Martín TejónM
  8. 11Simo BouzaidiM
  9. 14Raphael GuzzoM
  10. 18Vladan DanilovićM
  11. 17Adrián ButzkeF

CPCasa Pia crestCasa Pia4-3-3

  1. 31André GomesG
  2. 4João GoulartD
  3. 5Abdu ContéD
  4. 18André GeraldesD
  5. 43David SousaD
  6. 8Gabi PereiraM
  7. 24Sebastián PérezM
  8. 80Lawrence OforiM
  9. 9Henrique AraújoF
  10. 10RochinhaF
  11. 13Oluwakorede OsundinaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoL W L D L

  • A · Estoril Praia · 27 May 20231-30.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Vizela · 19 May 20231-0
  • A · Sporting CP · 13 May 20231-2
  • H · Rio Ave · 7 May 20232-20.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 29 Apr 20231-20.00-0.00 xG

CPCasa Pia crestCasa PiaD W L L L

  • H · Rio Ave · 16 May 20261-12.45-0.75 xG
  • A · Vitória SC · 11 May 20261-00.88-0.94 xG
  • H · Tondela · 3 May 20260-10.38-1.53 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 27 Apr 20261-21.21-1.88 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 23 Apr 20260-10.49-0.48 xG

How to read the CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia probabilities

CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 8 Aug 2026): Slight lean — CS Marítimo win 49%. Expected goals are 1.53–0.94. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–0.

CS Marítimo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.53–0.94). That shows up as CS Marítimo win at 49%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
8 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · CS Marítimo win
Kick-off
Sat 8 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CS Marítimo win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 30%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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