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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca Prediction

· Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Estoril Praia predictions · FC Arouca predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril PraiavsAFC Arouca crestFC Arouca

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Estoril Praia win 38%

Estoril Praia win
38%
Draw
32%
FC Arouca win
30%
Estoril Praia win %
38%
Draw %
32%
FC Arouca win %
30%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Estoril Praia win 38%, from a -55 Elo gap (1449 vs 1504).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.28-1.14.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1449 -55 1504

Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Estoril PraiaL L D L D1.09-1.91 xG

FC AroucaL W W W W1.24-1.42 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15%

Verdict

Slight lean

Estoril Praia win · 38%

Expected goals

1.28–1.14

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Estoril Praia versus FC Arouca
Estoril Praia goals012345
011%8%6%2%
19%15%7%3%
27%8%5%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
44%
BTTS %
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal15.3%
  2. 0-011.2%
  3. 1-09.1%
  4. 2-18.3%
  5. 0-17.8%

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia4-2-3-1

  1. 1Joel RoblesG
  2. 2Ricard SánchezD
  3. 3Fernando MedranoD
  4. 4FerroD
  5. 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
  6. 5Antef TsounguiM
  7. 7André LacximicantM
  8. 12João CarvalhoM
  9. 90Tiago BritoM
  10. 99Rafik GuitaneM
  11. 14Yanis BegraouiF

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca4-2-3-1

  1. 12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaG
  2. 3Jose FontánD
  3. 15Javi SánchezD
  4. 18Orest LebedenkoD
  5. 28Tiago EsgaioD
  6. 6Espen Van EeM
  7. 7Naïs DjouahraM
  8. 8Taichi FukuiM
  9. 14Hyun-ju LeeM
  10. 19Alfonso TrezzaM
  11. 17Ivan BarberoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaL L D L D

  • H · Rio Ave · 22 Aug 20260-21.16-0.70 xG
  • A · CD Nacional · 16 Aug 20260-20.82-2.08 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 7 Aug 20261-11.06-1.47 xG
  • H · Benfica · 16 May 20261-31.52-4.15 xG
  • A · FC Alverca · 10 May 20261-10.87-1.15 xG

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucaL W W W W

  • A · FC Porto · 23 Aug 20260-20.54-2.92 xG
  • H · Moreirense · 16 Aug 20264-02.14-0.49 xG
  • A · Vitória SC · 8 Aug 20261-00.43-2.28 xG
  • H · Tondela · 16 May 20263-11.77-0.62 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 11 May 20263-11.32-0.77 xG

How to read the Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca probabilities

Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca (Liga Portugal, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Estoril Praia win 38%. Expected goals are 1.28–1.14. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Estoril Praia and FC Arouca are close on expected goals (1.28–1.14), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Estoril Praia win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 12:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca

Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Estoril Praia win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 32%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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