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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca prediction

Balanced

FC Arouca win 36%

· Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 1/4 checks hit

Estoril Praia

0–0

Draw

FC Arouca

1X2

FC Arouca win

36%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted FC Arouca win · 36%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

Estoril PraiavsFC Arouca
Balanced

FC Arouca win36%

Estoril Praia win
31%
Draw
32%
FC Arouca win
36%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15% · Miss

Expected goals
1.18–1.28

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
44%

Under · 0 goals · Hit

BTTS
52%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: FC Arouca win 36%, from a -61 Elo gap (1448 vs 1509).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.18-1.28.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1448

-61

1509

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

6 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Estoril Praia

LLLDL

Avg xG 0.98-2.09

FC Arouca

WLWWW

Avg xG 1.29-1.40

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction15.5%
  2. 200Result11.2%
  3. 3018.5%
  4. 4128.2%
  5. 5107.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Estoril Praia versus FC Arouca
Estoril Praia goals012345
011%8%7%3%
18%15%8%4%
26%8%5%2%
32%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Estoril Praia win

Estoril Praia win: model 31%, fair 3.18, listed 2.52 (38%)

Fair

3.18

31% model

Listed

2.52

38% book

Draw

Draw: model 32%, fair 3.09, listed 3.40 (28%)

Fair

3.09

32% model

Listed

3.40

28% book

FC Arouca win

FC Arouca win: model 36%, fair 2.76, listed 2.90 (33%)

Fair

2.76

36% model

Listed

2.90

33% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.25, listed 1.86 (52%)

Fair
2.25
Listed
1.86

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.80, listed 2.01 (48%)

Fair
1.80
Listed
2.01

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 52%, fair 1.91, listed 1.65 (56%)

Fair
1.91
Listed
1.65

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 48%, fair 2.10, listed 2.12 (44%)

Fair
2.10
Listed
2.12

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Estoril Praia

  1. 1 Joel Robles · G
  2. 4 Ferro · D
  3. 5 Antef Tsoungui · D
  4. 25 Felix Bacher · D · changed
  5. 2 Ricard Sánchez · M
  6. 8 Xeka · M · changed
  7. 10 Jordan Holsgrove · M
  8. 7 André Lacximicant · F
  9. 12 João Carvalho · F
  10. 14 Yanis Begraoui · F
  11. 99 Rafik Guitane · F · changed

FC Arouca

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 15 Javi Sánchez · D · changed
  4. 25 Bas Kuipers · D · changed
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 14 Hyun-ju Lee · M · changed
  10. 19 Alfonso Trezza · M
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F
Confirmed XIConfirmed6 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Estoril Praia

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Joel Robles · G
  2. 2 Ricard Sánchez · D
  3. 3 Fernando Medrano · D · changed
  4. 4 Ferro · D
  5. 15 Ismael Sierra Arnal · D · changed
  6. 5 Antef Tsoungui · M
  7. 7 André Lacximicant · M
  8. 10 Jordan Holsgrove · M
  9. 12 João Carvalho · M
  10. 98 Fabrício Garcia · M · changed
  11. 14 Yanis Begraoui · F

FC Arouca

4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 5 Boris Popović · D · changed
  4. 18 Orest Lebedenko · D · changed
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 10 Pablo Gozálbez · M · changed
  10. 19 Alfonso Trezza · M
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Estoril Praia

LLLDL
  • 12BenficaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.36–2.03

  • 02Rio AveHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.16–0.70

  • 02CD NacionalAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.82–2.08

  • 11FamalicãoHome · 7 Aug 2026

    xG 1.06–1.47

  • 13BenficaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.52–4.15

FC Arouca

WLWWW
  • 21CS MarítimoHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.55–0.70

  • 02FC PortoAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.54–2.92

  • 40MoreirenseHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.14–0.49

  • 10Vitória SCAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 0.43–2.28

  • 31TondelaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.77–0.62

How to read the Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca probabilities

Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca (Liga Portugal, 7 Sept 2026): Balanced. FC Arouca win 36%. Expected goals are 1.18–1.28. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Estoril Praia and FC Arouca are close on expected goals (1.18–1.28), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Balanced · FC Arouca win
Kick-off
Mon 7 Sept, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca

Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 36%. Home 31%, draw 32%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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