Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 28%, away 14%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Vitória SC vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia prediction

Clear lean

Vitória SC win 58%

Sun 6 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Vitória SC

0–0

Draw

Casa Pia

1X2

Vitória SC win

58%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Vitória SC win · 58%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Vitória SCvsCasa Pia

Clear lean

Vitória SC win58%

Vitória SC win: 58%
Draw: 28%
Casa Pia win: 14%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.74–0.79
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 47%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Vitória SC win 58%, from a +95 Elo gap (1508 vs 1414).
2Expected goals 1.74-0.79.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1508
+95
1414
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Vitória SC
LWLLL
Avg xG 1.67-0.77
Casa Pia
LLLLD
Avg xG 0.96-1.47

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.1%
22012.1%
31011.7%
400Result10.1%
521Prediction9.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Vitória SC versus Casa Pia
Vitória SC goals	0	1	2
0	10%	4%	2%
1	12%	13%	4%
2	12%	10%	4%
3	7%	6%	2%
4	3%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:31 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Vitória SC win

Disagrees

Fair

1.73

58% model

Listed

1.48

65% book

Draw

Fair

3.62

28% model

Listed

4.26

23% book

Casa Pia win

Fair

6.91

14% model

Listed

7.63

13% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Vitória SC win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 1.98

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.89

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.12
Listed: 2.12

BTTS no

Fair: 1.90
Listed: 1.67

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Vitória SC

Casa Pia

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Vitória SC

LWLLL

01Sporting BragaAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.47–0.93
10CD NacionalHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 3.14–0.42
23Sporting CPAway · 14 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.12
01FC AroucaHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 2.28–0.43
02CD NacionalAway · 16 May 2026
xG 1.33–0.94

Casa Pia

LLLLD

01MoreirenseHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.42
02Gil VicenteAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.76–1.74
07BenficaHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.12–3.04
01CS MarítimoAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.39
11Rio AveHome · 16 May 2026
xG 2.45–0.75

How to read the Vitória SC vs Casa Pia probabilities

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 6 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Vitória SC win 58%. Expected goals are 1.74–0.79. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–0.

Vitória SC is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.74–0.79). Vitória SC win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Clear lean · Vitória SC win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 28%, away 14%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Vitória SC vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.