Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 66%. Home 66%, draw 24%, away 11%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 13%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Vitória SC vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Prediction

Sun 6 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Vitória SC predictions · Casa Pia predictions

Published 30 Aug 2026, 19:37 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Vitória SCvs

Casa Pia

Win probabilities

Clear lean

Vitória SC win 66%

Vitória SC win: 66%
Draw: 24%
Casa Pia win: 11%

Vitória SC win %: 66%
Draw %: 24%
Casa Pia win %: 11%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Vitória SC win 66%, from a +90 Elo gap (1512 vs 1422).
2Expected goals 2.00-0.71.
3Modal score 2-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.

Elo

1512 +90 1422

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

Liga Portugal table

Out

None listed

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

Last 5

Vitória SCW L L L L1.76-0.76 xG

Casa PiaL L L D W0.98-1.57 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13%

Verdict

Clear lean

Vitória SC win · 66%

Expected goals

2.00–0.71

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Vitória SC versus Casa Pia
Vitória SC goals	0	1	2
0	9%	3%
1	11%	11%	3%
2	13%	9%	3%
3	9%	6%	2%
4	4%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 51%
BTTS %: 46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

2-0Modal13.2%
1-011.4%
1-111.3%
2-19.5%
3-08.8%

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Vitória SC crestVitória SC4-2-3-1

48Oliwier ZychG
4Óscar RivasD
13João MendesD
23Tony StrataD
28Thiago BalieiroD
8Gonçalo NogueiraM
11Gustavo SilvaM
17Miguel NogueiraM
20SamuM
44Lohann DoucetM
24Alioune NdoyeF

Casa Pia crestCasa Pia4-3-3

31André GomesG
4João GoulartD
5Abdu ContéD
18André GeraldesD
43David SousaD
16Selvi ClúaM
24Sebastián PérezM
80Lawrence OforiM
9Henrique AraújoF
10RochinhaF
20Alassana JattaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Vitória SC crestVitória SCW L L L L

H · CD Nacional · 23 Aug 20261-03.14-0.42 xG
A · Sporting CP · 14 Aug 20262-31.12-1.12 xG
H · FC Arouca · 8 Aug 20260-12.28-0.43 xG
A · CD Nacional · 16 May 20260-21.33-0.94 xG
H · Casa Pia · 11 May 20260-10.94-0.88 xG

Casa Pia crestCasa PiaL L L D W

A · Gil Vicente · 24 Aug 20260-20.76-1.74 xG
H · Benfica · 17 Aug 20260-70.12-3.04 xG
A · CS Marítimo · 8 Aug 20260-10.67-1.39 xG
H · Rio Ave · 16 May 20261-12.45-0.75 xG
A · Vitória SC · 11 May 20261-00.88-0.94 xG

How to read the Vitória SC vs Casa Pia probabilities

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 6 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Vitória SC win 66%. Expected goals are 2.00–0.71. Modal score 2-0 (13%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Vitória SC is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.00–0.71). Vitória SC win is 66%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 19:37 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Vitória SC win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Vitória SC vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 66%. Home 66%, draw 24%, away 11%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: 2-0 is the modal scoreline at 13%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Vitória SC vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs Casa Pia?: BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.