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Liga Portugal round 7 results

Liga Portugal round 7 has 3 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 67%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Portugal. Model v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 7. Ledger updated 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Liga Portugal reliability

Round 7 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 42% (173 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 44% (269 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 52% (169 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 72% (128 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 73% (94 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 90% (57 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 95% (19 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Liga Portugal: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0309 on 909 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0309. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 73% of 94 matches.

ECE
0.0309
Log loss
0.9320
RPS
0.1829
Walk-forward
909
1X2 accuracy
56%
Goal MAE
0.88
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%42%173+5%
40–50%45%44%269−0%
50–60%55%52%169−3%
60–70%65%72%128+7%
70–80%75%73%94−2%
80–90%84%90%57+5%
90–100%92%95%19+3%
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Liga Portugal round 7 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
3
Favourite-correct
67%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
FC Alverca vs Rio Ave71–01–1MissFC Alverca win · 43%HitUnderHitYesMiss
CD Nacional vs Famalicão70–41–2MissFamalicão win · 55%HitOverHitYesMiss
Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo71–12–1MissGil Vicente win · 51%MissUnderHitYesHit

Previous: round 6All Liga Portugal results

Liga Portugal predictions

Liga Portugal round 7 questions

How did Expected90 do in Liga Portugal round 7?
3 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 67% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Liga Portugal round 7 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Liga Portugal rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7.

v1.4.0-elo-span16

Liga Portugal

Live season 2026/27 · round 7

Matches scored
56
Log loss
0.9216
RPS
0.1793
Goal MAE
0.88
1X2 accuracy
50%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.