Final 1–1·Sporting CP win 57%
Miss- Famalicão
- 16%
- Draw
- 27%
- CP
- 57%
- xG home
- 0.90
- xG away
- 1.85
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 52%
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Match pageLiga Portugal round 6 results
Liga Portugal round 6 has 6 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 33%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Famalicão vs Sporting CP; FC Arouca vs Santa Clara; Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC; CD Nacional vs FC Alverca. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Portugal. Model v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 6. Ledger updated 14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.
Liga Portugal reliability
Round 6 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0309. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 73% of 94 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0309
- Log loss
- 0.9320
- RPS
- 0.1829
- Walk-forward
- 909
- 1X2 accuracy
- 56%
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 42% | 173 | +5% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 44% | 269 | −0% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 52% | 169 | −3% |
| 60–70% | 65% | 72% | 128 | +7% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 73% | 94 | −2% |
| 80–90% | 84% | 90% | 57 | +5% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 95% | 19 | +3% |
Liga Portugal round 6 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 6
- Favourite-correct
- 33%
- Prediction hits
- 0
| Match | Round | Result | Prediction | 1X2 favourite | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicão vs Sporting CP | 6 | 1–1 | 1–2Miss | Sporting CP win · 57%Miss | OverMiss | YesHit |
| Benfica vs Gil Vicente | 6 | 3–1 | 3–0Miss | Benfica win · 79%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| FC Arouca vs Santa Clara | 6 | 1–2 | 1–1Miss | FC Arouca win · 39%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
| Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC | 6 | 2–1 | 1–2Miss | Vitória SC win · 60%Miss | UnderMiss | NoMiss |
| Casa Pia vs FC Porto | 6 | 1–4 | 0–2Miss | FC Porto win · 76%Hit | OverHit | NoMiss |
| CD Nacional vs FC Alverca | 6 | 1–3 | 1–1Miss | CD Nacional win · 36%Miss | UnderMiss | YesHit |
Previous: round 5All Liga Portugal results
Final 3–1·Benfica win 79%
Hit- Benfica
- 79%
- Draw
- 15%
- Vicente
- 5%
- xG home
- 2.68
- xG away
- 0.63
- Over 2.5
- 64%
- BTTS
- 45%
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Match page
Final 1–2·FC Arouca win 39%
Miss- Arouca
- 39%
- Draw
- 32%
- Clara
- 30%
- xG home
- 1.36
- xG away
- 1.17
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- BTTS
- 54%
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Match page
Final 2–1·Vitória SC win 60%
Miss- FC
- 13%
- Draw
- 26%
- SC
- 60%
- xG home
- 0.78
- xG away
- 1.83
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 48%
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Match page
Final 1–4·FC Porto win 76%
Hit- Pia
- 6%
- Draw
- 18%
- Porto
- 76%
- xG home
- 0.60
- xG away
- 2.40
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- BTTS
- 43%
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Match page
Final 1–3·CD Nacional win 36%
Miss- Nacional
- 36%
- Draw
- 32%
- Alverca
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.32
- xG away
- 1.25
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- BTTS
- 55%
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Match pageLiga Portugal round 6 questions
- How did Expected90 do in Liga Portugal round 6?
- 6 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 33% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
- Where are the Liga Portugal round 6 match pages?
- Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
- Can I see other Liga Portugal rounds?
- Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6.
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Liga Portugal
Live season 2026/27 · round 6
- Matches scored
- 50
- Log loss
- 0.9185
- RPS
- 0.1801
- Goal MAE
- 0.86
- 1X2 accuracy
- 50%
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.