Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Alverca win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 31%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora prediction

Slight lean

FC Alverca win 46%

Sat 15 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Published 15 Aug 2026, 12:16 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 0/4 checks hit

FC Alverca

2–2

Draw

CF Estrela Amadora

1X2

FC Alverca win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted FC Alverca win · 46%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FC AlvercavsCF Estrela Amadora

Slight lean

FC Alverca win46%

FC Alverca win: 46%
Draw: 31%
CF Estrela Amadora win: 23%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.42–0.95
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: FC Alverca win 46%, from a +42 Elo gap (1447 vs 1405).
2Expected goals 1.42-0.95.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1447
+42
1405
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
3-4-2-1/4-3-3
Last 5: FC Alverca
LLDLW
Avg xG 0.96-1.10
CF Estrela Amadora
DDDLL
Avg xG 1.33-2.13

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.8%
20011.6%
31011.0%
4209.4%
5218.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Alverca versus CF Estrela Amadora
FC Alverca goals	0	1	2
0	12%	7%	4%
1	11%	15%	6%
2	9%	9%	4%
3	4%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 19 Sept 2026, 20:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

FC Alverca win

Fair

2.19

46% model

Listed

2.09

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.19

31% model

Listed

3.25

29% book

CF Estrela Amadora win

Fair

4.34

23% model

Listed

3.50

27% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Aug 2026, 12:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

FC Alverca

CF Estrela Amadora

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

FC Alverca

3-4-2-1

CF Estrela Amadora

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Alverca

LLDLW

02FC PortoAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.66–2.59
01FamalicãoAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.45–0.52
11Estoril PraiaHome · 10 May 2026
xG 1.15–0.87
01FC PortoAway · 2 May 2026
xG 0.68–0.65
21FC AroucaHome · 24 Apr 2026
xG 0.85–0.86

CF Estrela Amadora

DDDLL

22Sporting CPHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.10–2.63
22Sporting BragaAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.71–2.38
00FamalicãoHome · 11 May 2026
xG 0.26–1.97
23MoreirenseAway · 2 May 2026
xG 2.83–1.87
12FC PortoHome · 26 Apr 2026
xG 1.76–1.81

How to read the FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora probabilities

FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora (Liga Portugal, 15 Aug 2026): Slight lean. FC Alverca win 46%. Expected goals are 1.42–0.95. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

FC Alverca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.42–0.95). That shows up as FC Alverca win at 46%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 42%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Aug 2026, 12:16 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · FC Alverca win
Kick-off: Sat 15 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora

Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Alverca win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 31%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.