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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto Prediction

· Estádio Municipal do Fontelo · Académico Viseu FC predictions · FC Porto predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 3/4 checks hit
AVAcadémico Viseu FC crest

Académico Viseu FC

0–3

FC Porto won

PFC Porto crest

FC Porto

1X2

FC Porto win

73%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Modal 0-2 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted FC Porto win · 73%

Actual FC Porto won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 0-2

Actual 0–3

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCvsPFC Porto crestFC Porto

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

FC Porto win 73%

Académico Viseu FC win
8%
Draw
19%
FC Porto win
73%
Académico Viseu FC win %
8%
Draw %
19%
FC Porto win %
73%

Predicted · Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: FC Porto win 73%, from a -366 Elo gap (1429 vs 1795).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.69-2.33.
  3. 3Modal score 0-2 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Oskar Pietuszewski listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1429 -366 1795

Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Oskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto
  • Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto
XI

Predicted XI

4-1-2-3 / 4-1-2-3

Last 5

Académico Viseu FCD L D1.16-2.00 xG

FC PortoW W W W L2.32-0.83 xG

Modal score

0-2

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

FC Porto win · 73% · Hit

Expected goals

0.69–2.33

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Académico Viseu FC versus FC Porto
Académico Viseu FC goals012345
06%10%13%10%6%3%
19%9%7%4%
23%3%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
58%

Over · 3 goals · Hit

BTTS %
46%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-2Modal13.3%
  2. 0-3Result10.3%
  3. 0-110.0%
  4. 1-19.2%
  5. 1-29.1%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC

No listed absences.

PFC Porto crestFC Porto

Out

  • Oskar Pietuszewski · F · Unknown
  • Samu Aghehowa · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Seko Fofana · M · Calf Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC4-1-2-3

  1. 98EwertonG
  2. 2Nikolaos MichelisD
  3. 5Pedro BarcelosD
  4. 41Anthony CorreiaD
  5. 75RobinhoD
  6. 6André CeitilM
  7. 8Cihan KahramanM
  8. 14Soufiane MesseguemM
  9. 31João GuilhermeM
  10. 33André ClóvisF
  11. 47Lorougnon GohiF

PFC Porto crestFC Porto4-1-2-3

  1. 99Diogo CostaG
  2. 4Jakub KiwiorD
  3. 5Jan BednarekD
  4. 12Zaidu SanusiD
  5. 20Alberto CostaD
  6. 8Victor FroholdtM
  7. 10Gabri VeigaM
  8. 13Pablo RosarioM
  9. 7William GomesF
  10. 11PepêF
  11. 19André SilvaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AVAcadémico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCD L D

  • A · CS Marítimo · 22 Aug 20262-21.84-1.28 xG
  • H · Santa Clara · 15 Aug 20260-10.58-1.27 xG
  • A · Benfica · 9 Aug 20262-21.07-3.44 xG

PFC Porto crestFC PortoW W W W L

  • H · FC Arouca · 23 Aug 20262-02.92-0.54 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 15 Aug 20262-01.97-0.58 xG
  • H · FC Alverca · 9 Aug 20262-02.59-1.66 xG
  • H · Santa Clara · 16 May 20261-00.91-0.50 xG
  • A · AVS - Futebol SAD · 10 May 20261-33.19-0.88 xG

How to read the Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto probabilities

Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto (Liga Portugal, 29 Aug 2026): Strong favourite — FC Porto win 73%. Expected goals are 0.69–2.33. Modal score 0-2 (13%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–3.

FC Porto is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.69–2.33). FC Porto win is 73% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 0-2 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · FC Porto win
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto

Who is favourite for Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is FC Porto win at 73%. Home 8%, draw 19%, away 73%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto?

0-2 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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