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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

Sporting CP vs CD Nacional Prediction

· Estádio José Alvalade · Sporting CP predictions · CD Nacional predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPvsNCD Nacional crestCD Nacional

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 75%

Sporting CP win
75%
Draw
18%
CD Nacional win
7%
Sporting CP win %
75%
Draw %
18%
CD Nacional win %
7%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 75%, from a +411 Elo gap (1812 vs 1401).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.43-0.66.
  3. 3Modal score 2-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4José Gomes listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1812 +411 1401

Sporting CP vs CD Nacional

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • José Gomes · CD Nacional
  • Motez Nourani · CD Nacional
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-2-1

Last 5

Sporting CPW W D W W1.81-0.85 xG

CD NacionalL W D W L1.12-1.65 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13%

Verdict

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win · 75%

Expected goals

2.43–0.66

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sporting CP versus CD Nacional
Sporting CP goals012345
06%
110%9%2%
213%9%3%
311%7%2%
47%4%
53%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
60%
BTTS %
46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-0Modal13.4%
  2. 3-010.8%
  3. 1-09.7%
  4. 2-18.9%
  5. 1-18.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP

No listed absences.

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional

Out

  • José Gomes · D · Unknown
  • Motez Nourani · F · Unknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP4-2-3-1

  1. 1Rui SilvaG
  2. 6Zeno DebastD
  3. 20Maximiliano AraújoD
  4. 22Iván FresnedaD
  5. 55Ibrahima BaD
  6. 5Sergi AltimiraM
  7. 10Geny CatamoM
  8. 17Rodrigo ZalazarM
  9. 58Flávio GonçalvesM
  10. 77Issa DoumbiaM
  11. 97Luis Javier SuárezF

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional3-4-2-1

  1. 1Renato MarinG
  2. 6Matheus DiasD
  3. 34Léo SantosD
  4. 38Ze VitorD
  5. 7Markus JensenM
  6. 22Filipe SoaresM
  7. 28LizieroM
  8. 52Wesley GasolinaM
  9. 8Miguel BaezaF
  10. 10Daniel JúniorF
  11. 99Pablo Messias CardozoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPW W D W W

  • H · FC Alverca · 22 Aug 20263-12.12-0.41 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 14 Aug 20263-21.12-1.12 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 8 Aug 20262-22.63-1.10 xG
  • H · Gil Vicente · 16 May 20263-01.61-0.64 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 11 May 20264-11.56-0.97 xG

NCD Nacional crestCD NacionalL W D W L

  • A · Vitória SC · 23 Aug 20260-10.42-3.14 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 16 Aug 20262-02.08-0.82 xG
  • A · Santa Clara · 10 Aug 20262-21.23-1.43 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 16 May 20262-00.94-1.33 xG
  • A · Santa Clara · 11 May 20260-20.92-1.53 xG

How to read the Sporting CP vs CD Nacional probabilities

Sporting CP vs CD Nacional (Liga Portugal, 5 Sept 2026): Strong favourite — Sporting CP win 75%. Expected goals are 2.43–0.66. Modal score 2-0 (13%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.43–0.66). Sporting CP win is 75% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sporting CP vs CD Nacional

Who is favourite for Sporting CP vs CD Nacional?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 75%. Home 75%, draw 18%, away 7%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sporting CP vs CD Nacional?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sporting CP vs CD Nacional go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sporting CP vs CD Nacional?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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