Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

Santa Clara vs CD Nacional Prediction

Mon 10 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon · Estadio de São Miguel · Santa Clara predictions · CD Nacional predictions

Published 10 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 0/4 checks hit

Santa Clara

2–2

Draw

CD Nacional

1X2

Santa Clara win

40%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Santa Clara win · 40%

Actual Draw

Modal score

Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Santa ClaravsN

CD Nacional

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Santa Clara win 40%

Santa Clara win: 40%
Draw: 32%
CD Nacional win: 28%

Santa Clara win %: 40%
Draw %: 32%
CD Nacional win %: 28%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Santa Clara win 40%, from a +79 Elo gap (1473 vs 1394).
2Expected goals 1.30-1.05.
3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.

Elo

1473 +79 1394

Santa Clara vs CD Nacional

Liga Portugal table

Out

None listed

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-3

Last 5

Santa ClaraL W D W D1.34-0.85 xG

CD NacionalW L L W W1.20-1.28 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Santa Clara win · 40% · Miss

Expected goals

1.30–1.05

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Santa Clara versus CD Nacional
Santa Clara goals	0	1	2	3
0	12%	8%	5%
1	10%	15%	7%	2%
2	8%	8%	4%
3	3%	4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 42%
BTTS %: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal15.0%
0-011.6%
1-010.4%
2-18.5%
2-08.1%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

SCSanta Clara crestSanta Clara4-2-3-1

1Lucas FrançaG
2Diogo CalilaD
4Pedro PachecoD
5Guilherme RomãoD
23Sidney LimaD
6Pedro FerreiraM
8José TavaresM
41Daniel BorgesM
70Vinícius LopesM
99SorrisoM
9Gonçalo PaciênciaF

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional3-4-3

1Renato MarinG
6Matheus DiasD
34Léo SantosD
38Ze VitorD
7Markus JensenM
26Joel SilvaM
28LizieroM
52Wesley GasolinaM
8Miguel BaezaF
10Daniel JúniorF
99Pablo Messias CardozoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SCSanta Clara crestSanta ClaraL W D W D

A · FC Porto · 16 May 20260-10.50-0.91 xG
H · CD Nacional · 11 May 20262-01.53-0.92 xG
A · FC Arouca · 2 May 20262-21.61-0.96 xG
H · Sporting Braga · 26 Apr 20262-12.84-0.17 xG
A · Casa Pia · 18 Apr 20260-00.20-1.30 xG

NCD Nacional crestCD NacionalW L L W W

H · Vitória SC · 16 May 20262-00.94-1.33 xG
A · Santa Clara · 11 May 20260-20.92-1.53 xG
H · AVS - Futebol SAD · 2 May 20261-21.83-1.64 xG
A · Tondela · 25 Apr 20262-01.32-1.56 xG
H · FC Alverca · 18 Apr 20261-01.01-0.36 xG

How to read the Santa Clara vs CD Nacional probabilities

Santa Clara vs CD Nacional (Liga Portugal, 10 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Santa Clara win 40%. Expected goals are 1.30–1.05. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

Santa Clara holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.30–1.05). That shows up as Santa Clara win at 40%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 42%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 10 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Santa Clara win
Kick-off: Mon 10 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Santa Clara vs CD Nacional

Who is favourite for Santa Clara vs CD Nacional?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Santa Clara win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 32%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Santa Clara vs CD Nacional?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.