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Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2026/27

Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga prediction

Slight lean

Santa Clara win 38%

· Estadio de São Miguel

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Santa ClaravsSporting Braga
Slight lean

Santa Clara win38%

Santa Clara win
38%
Draw
32%
Sporting Braga win
30%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15%

Expected goals
1.32–1.14

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%
BTTS
52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Santa Clara win 38%, from a -144 Elo gap (1503 vs 1646).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.32-1.14.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1503

-144

1646

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Last league XI
4-3-3/3-4-3
Last 5

Santa Clara

WWDWW

Avg xG 1.42-0.66

Sporting Braga

LWWDD

Avg xG 1.50-0.61

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction15.2%
  2. 20010.8%
  3. 3108.9%
  4. 4218.5%
  5. 5207.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Santa Clara versus Sporting Braga
Santa Clara goals012345
011%7%6%2%
19%15%7%3%
27%8%5%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Santa Clara win

Santa Clara win: model 38%, fair 2.60, listed 3.55 (26%)

Fair

2.60

38% model

Listed

3.55

26% book

Draw

Draw: model 32%, fair 3.15, listed 3.20 (29%)

Fair

3.15

32% model

Listed

3.20

29% book

Sporting Braga win

Disagrees

Sporting Braga win: model 30%, fair 3.35, listed 2.08 (45%)

Fair

3.35

30% model

Listed

2.08

45% book

The model disagrees with the listed Sporting Braga win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.24, listed 2.35 (41%)

Fair
2.24
Listed
2.35

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.81, listed 1.60 (59%)

Fair
1.81
Listed
1.60

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 52%, fair 1.91, listed 2.00 (46%)

Fair
1.91
Listed
2.00

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 48%, fair 2.10, listed 1.73 (54%)

Fair
2.10
Listed
1.73

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Santa Clara

4-3-3

  1. 1 Lucas França · G
  2. 4 Pedro Pacheco · D
  3. 5 Guilherme Romão · D
  4. 21 Emanuel Fernandes · D
  5. 42 Lucas Soares · D
  6. 6 Pedro Ferreira · M
  7. 8 José Tavares · M
  8. 20 Tiago Ribeiro · M
  9. 9 Gonçalo Paciência · F
  10. 10 Brenner · F
  11. 70 Vinícius Lopes · F

Sporting Braga

3-4-3

  1. 31 Bernardo Fontes · G
  2. 6 Vítor Carvalho · D
  3. 14 Gustaf Lagerbielke · D
  4. 22 Sergio Barcia · D
  5. 2 Victor Gómez · M
  6. 8 João Moutinho · M
  7. 34 Demir Ege Tıknaz · M
  8. 77 Gabriel Martínez · M
  9. 9 Fran Navarro · F
  10. 10 Pau Víctor · F
  11. 20 Mario Dorgeles · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Santa Clara

WWDWW
  • 21FC AroucaAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.16–0.72

  • 40Rio AveHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.80–0.32

  • 11FC AlvercaAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.49–0.61

  • 10FamalicãoHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.36–1.05

  • 10Académico Viseu FCAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.27–0.58

Sporting Braga

LWWDD
  • 12CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 10 Sept 2026

    xG 0.61–0.57

  • 21FC AlvercaAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.27–1.08

  • 10Vitória SCHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.93–0.47

  • 22MoreirenseAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.32–0.22

  • 22CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 2.38–0.71

How to read the Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga probabilities

Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga (Liga Portugal, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Santa Clara win 38%. Expected goals are 1.32–1.14. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Santa Clara and Sporting Braga are close on expected goals (1.32–1.14), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Santa Clara win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga

Who is favourite for Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Santa Clara win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 32%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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