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Liga Portugal round 4 results

Liga Portugal round 4 has 9 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 56%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Famalicão vs Gil Vicente; Casa Pia vs Moreirense; CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora; FC Alverca vs Santa Clara. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Portugal. Model v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 4. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Liga Portugal reliability

Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 42% (173 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 44% (269 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 52% (169 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 72% (128 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 73% (94 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 90% (57 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 95% (19 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Liga Portugal: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0309 on 909 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0309. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 73% of 94 matches.

ECE
0.0309
Log loss
0.9320
RPS
0.1829
Walk-forward
909
1X2 accuracy
56%
Goal MAE
0.88
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%42%173+5%
40–50%45%44%269−0%
50–60%55%52%169−3%
60–70%65%72%128+7%
70–80%75%73%94−2%
80–90%84%90%57+5%
90–100%92%95%19+3%
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Liga Portugal round 4 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
9
Favourite-correct
56%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Sporting Braga vs Vitória SC41–01–1MissSporting Braga win · 39%HitUnderHitYesMiss
Benfica vs Estoril Praia42–13–0MissBenfica win · 86%HitOverHitNoMiss
Famalicão vs Gil Vicente40–02–1MissFamalicão win · 46%MissUnderHitYesMiss
Casa Pia vs Moreirense40–11–1MissCasa Pia win · 34%MissUnderHitNoHit
CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora42–32–1MissCD Nacional win · 49%MissUnderMissYesHit
Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto40–30–2MissFC Porto win · 73%HitOverHitNoHit
FC Alverca vs Santa Clara41–11–1HitSanta Clara win · 37%MissUnderHitYesHit
FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo42–11–1MissFC Arouca win · 43%HitUnderMissYesHit
Rio Ave vs Sporting CP40–41–2MissSporting CP win · 64%HitOverHitNoHit

Previous: round 3All Liga Portugal resultsNext: round 5

Liga Portugal predictions

Liga Portugal round 4 questions

How did Expected90 do in Liga Portugal round 4?
9 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 56% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Liga Portugal round 4 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Liga Portugal rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7.

v1.4.0-elo-span16

Liga Portugal

Round 4 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
9 · 9
Log loss
0.8558·0.7734

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0823

RPS
0.1683·0.1442

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0241

Brier
0.4969·0.4452

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0517

Goal MAE
0.82
1X2 accuracy
56%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.59 · 80.5935·0.5663Δ +0.02510.2017·0.188978%Model · Closing line
Under 2.59 · 80.5935·0.5663Δ +0.02510.2017·0.188978%Model · Closing line
BTTS9 · 80.6977·0.6479Δ +0.05050.2523·0.227667%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.