England · pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League predictions

Match-by-match Premier League forecasts from a Dixon-Coles goals model with Elo features. Frozen baseline pl-v1.1.0-elo; every published number is stored before kick-off.

13 upcoming Premier League forecasts in the ledger, covering rounds 2 and 3. Looking for Premier League predictions today? See today’s fixtures · Premier League Elo table. Historical forecasts stay on this hub so every published number remains crawlable.

Upcoming

Round 25 matches

Premier League · Round 2Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon

Brighton & Hove Albion

Slight lean

Brighton & Hove Albion win42%

Chelsea: 30%
Draw: 29%
Albion: 42%

xG home: 1.29
xG away: 1.56
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon

Slight lean

Sunderland win43%

Sunderland: 43%
Draw: 29%
Fulham: 29%

xG home: 1.57
xG away: 1.26
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon

Leeds UnitedvsB

Balanced

Brentford win37%

United: 34%
Draw: 29%
Brentford: 37%

xG home: 1.38
xG away: 1.44
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Sun 30 Aug, 16:30 Lisbon

Manchester UnitedvsIT

Clear lean

Manchester United win68%

Open game

United: 68%
Draw: 21%
Town: 11%

xG home: 2.30
xG away: 0.86
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 53%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Mon 31 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Slight lean

Arsenal win51%

Both likely

Villa: 23%
Draw: 26%
Arsenal: 51%

xG home: 1.18
xG away: 1.84
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 60%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Round 38 matches

Premier League · Round 3Fri 4 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Ipswich TownvsL

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win57%

Town: 18%
Draw: 25%
FC: 57%

xG home: 1.03
xG away: 1.95
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon

Newcastle UnitedvsB

Balanced

Newcastle United win37%

United: 37%
Draw: 29%
Bournemouth: 34%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 1.37
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Brighton & Hove AlbionvsLU

Clear lean

Brighton & Hove Albion win61%

Albion: 61%
Draw: 24%
United: 15%

xG home: 2.01
xG away: 0.94
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 55%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Slight lean

Brentford win49%

Brentford: 49%
Draw: 27%
Sunderland: 24%

xG home: 1.76
xG away: 1.20
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 60%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Manchester CityvsCC

Strong favourite

Manchester City win77%

Open game

City: 77%
Draw: 16%
City: 6%

xG home: 2.57
xG away: 0.67
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 46%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Slight lean

Fulham win48%

Fulham: 48%
Draw: 29%
Palace: 24%

xG home: 1.63
xG away: 1.11
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 56%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Nottingham ForestvsTH

Tottenham Hotspur

Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win44%

Forest: 44%
Draw: 29%
Hotspur: 27%

xG home: 1.58
xG away: 1.21
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Slight lean

Aston Villa win40%

City: 31%
Draw: 30%
Villa: 40%

xG home: 1.27
xG away: 1.46
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Historical predictions

Round 25 matches

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Lisbon

Tottenham HotspurvsNU

Newcastle United

Final 0–2·Tottenham Hotspur win 37%

Miss

Hotspur: 37%
Draw: 30%
United: 33%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 1.32
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon

Final 1–1·Bournemouth win 44%

Miss

Bournemouth: 44%
Draw: 29%
Everton: 27%

xG home: 1.59
xG away: 1.20
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon

Coventry CityvsHC

Final 0–1·Coventry City win 39%

Miss

City: 39%
Draw: 32%
City: 29%

xG home: 1.27
xG away: 1.05
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 49%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Lisbon

Liverpool FCvsNF

Nottingham Forest

Final 2–2·Liverpool FC win 58%

Miss

FC: 58%
Draw: 25%
Forest: 18%

xG home: 2.00
xG away: 1.04
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Fri 28 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Crystal PalacevsMC

Manchester City

Final 1–4·Manchester City win 57%

Hit

Palace: 18%
Draw: 25%
City: 57%

xG home: 1.04
xG away: 1.98
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League prediction questions

Where can I find Premier League predictions today?

Upcoming Premier League fixtures are listed first on this hub, with a dedicated today view at /football-predictions/today. Each match has its own URL with xG, 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS.

How does Expected90 predict Premier League matches?

Premier League forecasts use expected goals as Poisson means, a Dixon-Coles adjustment for low scores, and Elo team strength. Home/draw/away, Over 2.5 and BTTS are summed from one score grid.

Are Premier League predictions betting tips?

No. These are probabilities, timestamped before kick-off. Misses stay on the page. There is no odds CTA.

Can I check yesterday’s Premier League prediction?

Yes. Historical forecasts remain on this hub and on each match URL, with the original probabilities and the final score.