Premier League predictions

Match-by-match Premier League forecasts from a Dixon-Coles goals model with Elo features. Frozen baseline pl-v1.1.0-elo; every published number is stored before kick-off.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Official site: premierleague.com.

13 upcoming Premier League forecasts in the ledger, covering rounds 7 and 8. Looking for Premier League predictions today? See today’s fixtures · Premier League Elo table. Historical forecasts stay on this hub so every published number remains crawlable.

Upcoming

Round 74 matches

Premier League · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

BournemouthvsSunderland

Slight lean

Bournemouth win47%

Bournemouth: 47%
Draw: 29%
Sunderland: 24%

xG home: 1.67
xG away: 1.17
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Brighton & Hove AlbionvsCrystal Palace

Clear lean

Brighton & Hove Albion win63%

Albion: 63%
Draw: 23%
Palace: 13%

xG home: 2.12
xG away: 0.91
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 55%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Leeds UnitedvsManchester United

Slight lean

Manchester United win43%

United: 28%
Draw: 29%
United: 43%

xG home: 1.28
xG away: 1.60
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 60%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 Lisbon

Nottingham ForestvsArsenal

Slight lean

Arsenal win41%

Forest: 29%
Draw: 30%
Arsenal: 41%

xG home: 1.23
xG away: 1.50
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Round 89 matches

Premier League · Round 8Fri 23 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Ipswich TownvsNottingham Forest

Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win46%

Town: 25%
Draw: 29%
Forest: 46%

xG home: 1.20
xG away: 1.68
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 Lisbon

Aston VillavsManchester City

Slight lean

Manchester City win52%

Villa: 20%
Draw: 28%
City: 52%

xG home: 1.08
xG away: 1.80
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

ArsenalvsEverton

Clear lean

Arsenal win59%

Arsenal: 59%
Draw: 25%
Everton: 16%

xG home: 2.00
xG away: 0.97
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 56%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Coventry CityvsFulham

Slight lean

Fulham win48%

City: 23%
Draw: 28%
Fulham: 48%

xG home: 1.15
xG away: 1.72
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

ChelseavsTottenham Hotspur

Slight lean

Chelsea win42%

Chelsea: 42%
Draw: 29%
Hotspur: 29%

xG home: 1.58
xG away: 1.29
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 60%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Crystal PalacevsNewcastle United

Balanced

Newcastle United win35%

Palace: 35%
Draw: 31%
United: 35%

xG home: 1.34
xG away: 1.35
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Hull CityvsBrentford

Slight lean

Brentford win39%

City: 32%
Draw: 30%
Brentford: 39%

xG home: 1.33
xG away: 1.49
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Liverpool FCvsBrighton & Hove Albion

Balanced

Liverpool FC win37%

Both likely

FC: 37%
Draw: 29%
Albion: 34%

xG home: 1.51
xG away: 1.45
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 62%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Manchester UnitedvsBournemouth

Slight lean

Manchester United win52%

United: 52%
Draw: 28%
Bournemouth: 20%

xG home: 1.78
xG away: 1.07
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Result pending

Kick-off has passed and the score has not been ingested yet. Forecasts stay frozen; these matches are not listed as upcoming.

Round 76 matches

Premier League · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 Lisbon

Result pending

EvertonvsChelsea

Slight lean

Everton win42%

Everton: 42%
Draw: 30%
Chelsea: 28%

xG home: 1.53
xG away: 1.21
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Result pending

BrentfordvsLiverpool FC

Balanced

Liverpool FC win36%

Brentford: 33%
Draw: 31%
FC: 36%

xG home: 1.30
xG away: 1.35
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Result pending

FulhamvsHull City

Slight lean

Fulham win46%

Fulham: 46%
Draw: 29%
City: 25%

xG home: 1.65
xG away: 1.17
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Result pending

Manchester CityvsIpswich Town

Strong favourite

Manchester City win74%

Open game

City: 74%
Draw: 18%
Town: 8%

xG home: 2.63
xG away: 0.85
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 54%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Result pending

Tottenham HotspurvsCoventry City

Slight lean

Tottenham Hotspur win54%

Hotspur: 54%
Draw: 28%
City: 18%

xG home: 1.74
xG away: 0.94
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Result pending

Newcastle UnitedvsAston Villa

Slight lean

Newcastle United win40%

United: 40%
Draw: 30%
Villa: 30%

xG home: 1.51
xG away: 1.30
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Historical predictions

Premier League · Round 3Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon

ArsenalvsChelsea

Final 2–1·Arsenal win 65%

Hit

Arsenal: 65%
Draw: 23%
Chelsea: 12%

xG home: 2.16
xG away: 0.88
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 53%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sun 6 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

EvertonvsManchester United

Final 2–2·Manchester United win 54%

Miss

Everton: 20%
Draw: 26%
United: 54%

xG home: 1.14
xG away: 1.94
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 60%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Hull CityvsAston Villa

Final 0–0·Aston Villa win 39%

Miss

City: 30%
Draw: 31%
Villa: 39%

xG home: 1.21
xG away: 1.38
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 55%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Brighton & Hove AlbionvsLeeds United

Final 1–1·Brighton & Hove Albion win 62%

Miss

Albion: 62%
Draw: 24%
United: 15%

xG home: 2.08
xG away: 0.96
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 56%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

BrentfordvsSunderland

Final 1–1·Brentford win 51%

Miss

Brentford: 51%
Draw: 27%
Sunderland: 22%

xG home: 1.83
xG away: 1.16
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Manchester CityvsCoventry City

Final 1–0·Manchester City win 80%

Hit

City: 80%
Draw: 15%
City: 5%

xG home: 2.66
xG away: 0.62
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 44%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

FulhamvsCrystal Palace

Final 2–3·Fulham win 47%

Miss

Fulham: 47%
Draw: 29%
Palace: 24%

xG home: 1.60
xG away: 1.09
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Nottingham ForestvsTottenham Hotspur

Final 0–0·Nottingham Forest win 44%

Miss

Forest: 44%
Draw: 29%
Hotspur: 27%

xG home: 1.59
xG away: 1.21
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon

Newcastle UnitedvsBournemouth

Final 2–2·Bournemouth win 38%

Miss

United: 33%
Draw: 30%
Bournemouth: 38%

xG home: 1.34
xG away: 1.45
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 3Fri 4 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Ipswich TownvsLiverpool FC

Final 0–2·Liverpool FC win 58%

Hit

Town: 17%
Draw: 25%
FC: 58%

xG home: 1.04
xG away: 2.01
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Mon 31 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Aston VillavsArsenal

Final 0–1·Arsenal win 51%

Hit

Villa: 23%
Draw: 26%
Arsenal: 51%

xG home: 1.20
xG away: 1.85
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League · Round 2Sun 30 Aug, 16:30 Lisbon

Manchester UnitedvsIpswich Town

Final 5–2·Manchester United win 68%

Hit

United: 68%
Draw: 21%
Town: 11%

xG home: 2.30
xG away: 0.86
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 53%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League prediction questions

Where can I find Premier League predictions today?: Upcoming Premier League fixtures are listed first on this hub, with a dedicated today view at /football-predictions/today. Each match has its own URL with xG, 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS.
How does Expected90 predict Premier League matches?: Premier League forecasts use expected goals as Poisson means, a Dixon-Coles adjustment for low scores, and Elo team strength. Home/draw/away, Over 2.5 and BTTS are summed from one score grid.
Are Premier League predictions betting tips?: No. These are probabilities, timestamped before kick-off. Misses stay on the page. There is no odds CTA.
Can I check yesterday’s Premier League prediction?: Yes. Historical forecasts remain on this hub and on each match URL, with the original probabilities and the final score.