Skip to main content
E90

Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia prediction

Slight lean

CD Nacional win 41%

· Estádio da Madeira

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit

CD Nacional

2–0

CD Nacional won

Estoril Praia

1X2

CD Nacional win

41%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted CD Nacional win · 41%

Actual CD Nacional won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

CD NacionalvsEstoril Praia
Slight lean

CD Nacional win41%

CD Nacional win
41%
Draw
31%
Estoril Praia win
28%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15% · Miss

Expected goals
1.38–1.10

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%

Under · 2 goals · Hit

BTTS
52%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: CD Nacional win 41%, from a -70 Elo gap (1397 vs 1467).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.38-1.10.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4José Gomes listed out.

Match briefing

Elo

1397

-70

1467

Liga Portugal table
Out

CD Nacional1 out

  • José Gomes

Estoril PraiaNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

9 changes from the expected XI

3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

CD Nacional

DWLLW

Avg xG 1.25-1.50

Estoril Praia

DLDDL

Avg xG 0.99-1.66

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction14.9%
  2. 20010.6%
  3. 3109.4%
  4. 4218.8%
  5. 520Result8.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CD Nacional versus Estoril Praia
CD Nacional goals012345
011%7%5%
19%15%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CD Nacional win

CD Nacional win: model 41%, fair 2.43, listed 2.92 (32%)

Fair

2.43

41% model

Listed

2.92

32% book

Draw

Draw: model 31%, fair 3.20, listed 3.27 (29%)

Fair

3.20

31% model

Listed

3.27

29% book

Estoril Praia win

Disagrees

Estoril Praia win: model 28%, fair 3.62, listed 2.40 (39%)

Fair

3.62

28% model

Listed

2.40

39% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Estoril Praia win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CD Nacional1 out

  • José GomesOutUnknown

Estoril PraiaNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

CD Nacional

  1. 30 Kaique · G · changed
  2. 5 José Gomes · D · changed
  3. 16 Alan Núñez · D · changed
  4. 34 Léo Santos · D
  5. 38 Ze Vitor · D
  6. 6 Matheus Dias · M
  7. 10 Daniel Júnior · M
  8. 15 Chiheb Labidi · M · changed
  9. 22 Filipe Soares · M
  10. 9 Jesús Ramírez · F · changed
  11. 11 Paulinho Bóia · F · changed

Estoril Praia

  1. 1 Joel Robles · G
  2. 4 Ferro · D
  3. 5 Antef Tsoungui · D
  4. 24 Pedro Amaral · D · changed
  5. 25 Felix Bacher · D · changed
  6. 2 Ricard Sánchez · M
  7. 8 Xeka · M
  8. 10 Jordan Holsgrove · M · changed
  9. 12 João Carvalho · F
  10. 14 Yanis Begraoui · F
  11. 99 Rafik Guitane · F
Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

CD Nacional

3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Renato Marin · G · changed
  2. 6 Matheus Dias · D
  3. 34 Léo Santos · D
  4. 38 Ze Vitor · D
  5. 7 Markus Jensen · M · changed
  6. 22 Filipe Soares · M
  7. 28 Liziero · M · changed
  8. 52 Wesley Gasolina · M · changed
  9. 8 Miguel Baeza · F · changed
  10. 10 Daniel Júnior · F
  11. 99 Pablo Messias Cardozo · F · changed

Estoril Praia

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Joel Robles · G
  2. 2 Ricard Sánchez · D
  3. 3 Fernando Medrano · D · changed
  4. 4 Ferro · D
  5. 15 Ismael Sierra Arnal · D · changed
  6. 5 Antef Tsoungui · M
  7. 7 André Lacximicant · M · changed
  8. 8 Xeka · M
  9. 12 João Carvalho · M
  10. 99 Rafik Guitane · M
  11. 14 Yanis Begraoui · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CD Nacional

DWLLW
  • 22Santa ClaraAway · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 1.23–1.43

  • 20Vitória SCHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.94–1.33

  • 02Santa ClaraAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.92–1.53

  • 12AVS - Futebol SADHome · 2 May 2026

    xG 1.83–1.64

  • 20TondelaAway · 25 Apr 2026

    xG 1.32–1.56

Estoril Praia

DLDDL
  • 11FamalicãoHome · 7 Aug 2026

    xG 1.06–1.47

  • 13BenficaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.52–4.15

  • 11FC AlvercaAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 0.87–1.15

  • 11Sporting BragaAway · 3 May 2026

    xG 1.06–0.40

  • 01FamalicãoHome · 26 Apr 2026

    xG 0.44–1.15

How to read the CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia probabilities

CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean. CD Nacional win 41%. Expected goals are 1.38–1.10. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

CD Nacional holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.38–1.10). That shows up as CD Nacional win at 41%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 45%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · CD Nacional win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia

Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CD Nacional win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 31%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Liga Portugal predictions