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Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC Prediction

Clear lean

Vitória SC win 56%

· Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCvsVitória SC crestVitória SC
Clear lean

Vitória SC win56%

Académico Viseu FC win
16%
Draw
28%
Vitória SC win
56%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
0.84–1.74

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
47%
BTTS
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Vitória SC win 56%, from a -81 Elo gap (1427 vs 1508).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.84-1.74.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo
Académico Viseu FC crest

1427

-81

Vitória SC crest

1508

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Last league XI
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC

LDLD

Avg xG 1.07-1.86

Vitória SC crestVitória SC

LWLLL

Avg xG 1.67-0.77

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.3%
  2. 20211.5%
  3. 30111.0%
  4. 4009.8%
  5. 512Prediction9.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Académico Viseu FC versus Vitória SC
Académico Viseu FC goals012345
010%11%11%7%3%
14%13%10%6%2%
23%5%4%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC

4-3-3

  1. 98 Ewerton · G
  2. 2 Nikolaos Michelis · D
  3. 41 Anthony Correia · D
  4. 57 Gu Costa · D
  5. 75 Robinho · D
  6. 7 Luís Silva · M
  7. 8 Cihan Kahraman · M
  8. 14 Soufiane Messeguem · M
  9. 31 João Guilherme · F
  10. 33 André Clóvis · F
  11. 47 Lorougnon Gohi · F

Vitória SC crestVitória SC

4-2-3-1

  1. 48 Oliwier Zych · G
  2. 4 Óscar Rivas · D
  3. 13 João Mendes · D
  4. 23 Tony Strata · D
  5. 28 Thiago Balieiro · D
  6. 8 Gonçalo Nogueira · M
  7. 11 Gustavo Silva · M
  8. 17 Miguel Nogueira · M
  9. 20 Samu · M
  10. 44 Lohann Doucet · M
  11. 24 Alioune Ndoye · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC

LDLD
  • 03FC PortoHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.79–1.47

  • 22CS MarítimoAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.84–1.28

  • 01Santa ClaraHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 0.58–1.27

  • 22BenficaAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.07–3.44

Vitória SC crestVitória SC

LWLLL
  • 01Sporting BragaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.47–0.93

  • 10CD NacionalHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.14–0.42

  • 23Sporting CPAway · 14 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–1.12

  • 01FC AroucaHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 2.28–0.43

  • 02CD NacionalAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.33–0.94

How to read the Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC probabilities

Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC (Liga Portugal, 12 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Vitória SC win 56%. Expected goals are 0.84–1.74. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Vitória SC is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.84–1.74). Vitória SC win is 56%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Vitória SC win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC

Who is favourite for Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 56%. Home 16%, draw 28%, away 56%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Académico Viseu FC vs Vitória SC?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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