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Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2026/27

Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia prediction

Slight lean

Estoril Praia win 48%

· Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Estoril PraiavsCasa Pia
Slight lean

Estoril Praia win48%

Estoril Praia win
48%
Draw
31%
Casa Pia win
21%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 15%

Expected goals
1.48–0.91

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
43%
BTTS
48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Estoril Praia win 48%, from a +33 Elo gap (1447 vs 1415).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.48-0.91.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 15%.

Match briefing

Elo

1447

+33

1415

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Estoril Praia

DLLLD

Avg xG 0.85-1.47

Casa Pia

LDLLL

Avg xG 0.70-2.06

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal14.6%
  2. 20011.4%
  3. 31011.4%
  4. 42010.1%
  5. 521Prediction9.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Estoril Praia versus Casa Pia
Estoril Praia goals012345
011%6%4%
111%15%6%
210%9%4%
35%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Estoril Praia win

Estoril Praia win: model 48%, fair 2.07, listed 1.73 (54%)

Fair

2.07

48% model

Listed

1.73

54% book

Draw

Draw: model 31%, fair 3.25, listed 3.58 (26%)

Fair

3.25

31% model

Listed

3.58

26% book

Casa Pia win

Casa Pia win: model 21%, fair 4.79, listed 4.60 (20%)

Fair

4.79

21% model

Listed

4.60

20% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.35, listed 1.95 (49%)

Fair
2.35
Listed
1.95

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.74, listed 1.90 (51%)

Fair
1.74
Listed
1.90

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 48%, fair 2.08, listed 1.80 (51%)

Fair
2.08
Listed
1.80

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 52%, fair 1.93, listed 1.91 (49%)

Fair
1.93
Listed
1.91

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Estoril Praia

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Joel Robles · G
  2. 2 Ricard Sánchez · D
  3. 3 Fernando Medrano · D
  4. 4 Ferro · D
  5. 15 Ismael Sierra Arnal · D
  6. 5 Antef Tsoungui · M
  7. 7 André Lacximicant · M
  8. 10 Jordan Holsgrove · M
  9. 12 João Carvalho · M
  10. 98 Fabrício Garcia · M
  11. 14 Yanis Begraoui · F

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

  1. 95 Ivan Mandić · G
  2. 3 Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira · D
  3. 18 André Geraldes · D
  4. 43 David Sousa · D
  5. 75 Pedro Rosas · D
  6. 11 Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri · M
  7. 16 Selvi Clúa · M
  8. 70 João Rêgo · M
  9. 77 Benjamin Pauwels · M
  10. 80 Lawrence Ofori · M
  11. 9 Henrique Araújo · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Estoril Praia

DLLLD
  • 00FC AroucaHome · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 0.86–1.07

  • 12BenficaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.36–2.03

  • 02Rio AveHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.16–0.70

  • 02CD NacionalAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.82–2.08

  • 11FamalicãoHome · 7 Aug 2026

    xG 1.06–1.47

Casa Pia

LDLLL
  • 14FC PortoHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.59–2.60

  • 00Vitória SCAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.21–2.48

  • 01MoreirenseHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.82–0.42

  • 02Gil VicenteAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 0.76–1.74

  • 07BenficaHome · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 0.12–3.04

How to read the Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia probabilities

Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Estoril Praia win 48%. Expected goals are 1.48–0.91. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 15%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Estoril Praia holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.48–0.91). That shows up as Estoril Praia win at 48%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 15%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Estoril Praia win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Estoril Praia win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 31%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?
BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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