Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Estoril Praia win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 32%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2627.0

Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia prediction

Slight lean

Estoril Praia win 46%

Sun 20 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Published 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 0/4 checks hit

Estoril Praia

1–2

Casa Pia won

Casa Pia

1X2

Estoril Praia win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Estoril Praia win · 46%

Actual Casa Pia won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Estoril PraiavsCasa Pia

Slight lean

Estoril Praia win46%

Estoril Praia win: 46%
Draw: 32%
Casa Pia win: 22%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.44–0.94
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Estoril Praia win 46%, from a +30 Elo gap (1445 vs 1415).
2Expected goals 1.44-0.94.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Ferro suspended.

Match briefing

Elo: 1445
+30
1415
Liga Portugal table
Out: Estoril Praia1 out
FerroSuspended
Casa PiaNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Estoril Praia
LDLLL
Avg xG 0.79-1.53
Casa Pia
LDLLL
Avg xG 0.70-2.06

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction15.0%
20011.8%
31010.9%
4209.7%
5219.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Estoril Praia versus Casa Pia
Estoril Praia goals	0	1	2
0	12%	6%	4%
1	11%	15%	6%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	5%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Estoril Praia win

Disagrees

Fair

2.16

46% model

Listed

1.75

56% book

Draw

Fair

3.16

32% model

Listed

3.90

25% book

Casa Pia win

Fair

4.55

22% model

Listed

5.00

19% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Estoril Praia win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 1.80

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 2.11

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.05
Listed: 1.70

BTTS no

Fair: 1.96
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Estoril Praia1 out

FerroSuspendedyellow or red card suspension

Casa PiaNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Estoril Praia

Casa Pia

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Estoril Praia

4-2-3-1

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Estoril Praia

LDLLL

01Sporting BragaAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.75–1.79
00FC AroucaHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.86–1.07
12BenficaAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.36–2.03
02Rio AveHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.16–0.70
02CD NacionalAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–2.08

Casa Pia

LDLLL

14FC PortoHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.59–2.60
00Vitória SCAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.21–2.48
01MoreirenseHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.42
02Gil VicenteAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 0.76–1.74
07BenficaHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.12–3.04

How to read the Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia probabilities

Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Estoril Praia win 46%. Expected goals are 1.44–0.94. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–2.

Estoril Praia holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.44–0.94). That shows up as Estoril Praia win at 46%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 42%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Estoril Praia win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Estoril Praia win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 32%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs Casa Pia?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.