Who is favourite for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 79%. Home 79%, draw 15%, away 5%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

3–0 is the published prediction at 12%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Benfica vs Gil Vicente go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Benfica vs Gil Vicente prediction

Strong favourite

Benfica win 79%

Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estádio da Luz

Published 12 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 6 · 2/4 checks hit

Benfica

3–1

Benfica won

Gil Vicente

1X2

Benfica win

79%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 3–0 · score miss · grid peak 2–0

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Benfica win · 79%

Actual Benfica won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 3–0

Actual 3–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

BenficavsGil Vicente

Strong favourite

Benfica win79%

Open game

Benfica win: 79%
Draw: 15%
Gil Vicente win: 5%

Prediction: 3–0
Expected goals: 2.68–0.63
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 45%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Benfica win 79%, from a +318 Elo gap (1804 vs 1485).
2Expected goals 2.68-0.63.
3Prediction 3–0 (12%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 13%.
4Over 2.5 at 64%.
5Alexander Bah listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1804
+318
1485
Liga Portugal table
Out: Benfica1 out
Alexander Bah
Gil Vicente2 out
Arthur Tchaptchet
Walace dos Santos França
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/5-4-1
Last 5: Benfica
WWWWD
Avg xG 2.56-0.41
Gil Vicente
LDWWL
Avg xG 1.24-0.63

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Modal13.1%
230Prediction11.7%
3108.5%
4218.3%
5407.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 3–0, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Benfica versus Gil Vicente
Benfica goals	0	1	2
0	5%
1	9%	7%
2	13%	8%	3%
3	12%	7%	2%
4	8%	5%
5	4%	3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Benfica win

Fair

1.26

79% model

Listed

1.13

86% book

Draw

Fair

6.49

15% model

Listed

9.80

10% book

Gil Vicente win

Fair

19.38

5% model

Listed

21.00

5% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.55
Listed: 1.44

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.81
Listed: 2.90

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.23
Listed: 2.25

BTTS no

Fair: 1.82
Listed: 1.57

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Benfica1 out

Alexander BahOutShoulder Injury

Gil Vicente2 out

Arthur TchaptchetOutUnknown
Walace dos Santos FrançaOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 12 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Benfica

Gil Vicente

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Gil Vicente

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Benfica

WWWWD

40MoreirenseAway · 9 Sept 2026
xG 2.99–0.39
30CS MarítimoAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–0.12
21Estoril PraiaHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–0.36
70Casa PiaAway · 17 Aug 2026
xG 3.04–0.12
22Académico Viseu FCHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 3.44–1.07

Gil Vicente

LDWWL

01Académico Viseu FCHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–0.33
00FamalicãoAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.27–0.27
20Casa PiaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–0.76
10Rio AveHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.66–0.19
03Sporting CPAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.64–1.61

How to read the Benfica vs Gil Vicente probabilities

Benfica vs Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal, 13 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Benfica win 79%. Expected goals are 2.68–0.63. Prediction 3–0 (12%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–1.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.68–0.63). Benfica win is 79%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 3–0 at 12%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 64%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 45%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 12 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 537
Verdict: Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Benfica vs Gil Vicente

Who is favourite for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 79%. Home 79%, draw 15%, away 5%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?: 3–0 is the published prediction at 12%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Benfica vs Gil Vicente go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Benfica vs Gil Vicente?: BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.