Who is favourite for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 76%. Home 76%, draw 18%, away 7%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Benfica vs Gil Vicente go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Benfica vs Gil Vicente Prediction

Strong favourite

Benfica win 76%

Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estádio da Luz

Published 7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Benficavs

Gil Vicente

Strong favourite

Benfica win76%

Open game

Benfica win: 76%
Draw: 18%
Gil Vicente win: 7%

Prediction: 2–0
Expected goals: 2.52–0.69
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 47%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Benfica win 76%, from a +315 Elo gap (1801 vs 1485).
2Expected goals 2.52-0.69.
3Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 62%.
5Arthur Tchaptchet listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: Benfica crest
1801
+315
Gil Vicente crest
1485
Liga Portugal table
Out: Benfica crestBenficaNone out
No listed absences
Gil Vicente crestGil Vicente2 out
Arthur Tchaptchet
Walace dos Santos França
XI: Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Benfica crestBenfica
WWWDW
Avg xG 2.79-0.64
Gil Vicente crestGil Vicente
LDWWL
Avg xG 1.24-0.63

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Prediction12.8%
23010.8%
3218.8%
4108.8%
5118.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Benfica versus Gil Vicente
Benfica goals	0	1	2
0	5%
1	9%	8%	2%
2	13%	9%	3%
3	11%	7%	3%
4	7%	5%
5	3%	2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Benfica crestBenficaNone out

No listed absences.

Gil Vicente crestGil Vicente2 out

Arthur TchaptchetOutUnknown
Walace dos Santos FrançaOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Benfica crestBenfica

4-2-3-1

Gil Vicente crestGil Vicente

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Benfica crestBenfica

WWWDW

30CS MarítimoAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–0.12
21Estoril PraiaHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–0.36
70Casa PiaAway · 17 Aug 2026
xG 3.04–0.12
22Académico Viseu FCHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 3.44–1.07
31Estoril PraiaAway · 16 May 2026
xG 4.15–1.52

Gil Vicente crestGil Vicente

LDWWL

01Académico Viseu FCHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–0.33
00FamalicãoAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.27–0.27
20Casa PiaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–0.76
10Rio AveHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.66–0.19
03Sporting CPAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.64–1.61

How to read the Benfica vs Gil Vicente probabilities

Benfica vs Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal, 13 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Benfica win 76%. Expected goals are 2.52–0.69. Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.52–0.69). Benfica win is 76%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 62%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Benfica vs Gil Vicente

Who is favourite for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 76%. Home 76%, draw 18%, away 7%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?: 2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Benfica vs Gil Vicente go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Benfica vs Gil Vicente?: BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.