Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs Famalicão?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 55%. Home 18%, draw 27%, away 55%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs Famalicão?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will CD Nacional vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs Famalicão?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2627.0

CD Nacional vs Famalicão prediction

Clear lean

Famalicão win 55%

Sat 19 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon · Estádio da Madeira

Published 14 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 2/4 checks hit

CD Nacional

0–4

Famalicão won

Famalicão

1X2

Famalicão win

55%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Famalicão win · 55%

Actual Famalicão won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–4

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CD NacionalvsFamalicão

Clear lean

Famalicão win55%

CD Nacional win: 18%
Draw: 27%
Famalicão win: 55%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.98–1.84
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Famalicão win 55%, from a -157 Elo gap (1382 vs 1539).
2Expected goals 0.98-1.84.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Léo Santos listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1382
-157
1539
Liga Portugal table
Out: CD Nacional1 out
Léo Santos
Famalicão2 out
Romeo BeneySuspended
Tom Van De Looi
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-1-4-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: CD Nacional
LLLLW
Avg xG 1.14-2.09
Famalicão
DDDLL
Avg xG 0.81-1.29

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.9%
20210.1%
312Prediction9.9%
4018.9%
5008.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for CD Nacional versus Famalicão
CD Nacional goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	8%	9%	10%	6%	3%
1	4%	13%	10%	6%	3%
2	3%	5%	5%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CD Nacional win

Fair

5.68

18% model

Listed

4.35

22% book

Draw

Fair

3.71

27% model

Listed

3.45

28% book

Famalicão win

Fair

1.80

55% model

Listed

1.95

50% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 2.15

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.14
Listed: 1.70

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.91

BTTS no

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 1.83

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CD Nacional1 out

Léo SantosOutUnknown

Famalicão2 out

Romeo BeneySuspendedred card suspension
Tom Van De LooiOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

CD Nacional

Famalicão

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

CD Nacional

4-1-4-1

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CD Nacional

LLLLW

13FC AlvercaHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.20–1.16
02Sporting CPAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.08–3.00
23CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.92–2.34
01Vitória SCAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–3.14
20Estoril PraiaHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 2.08–0.82

Famalicão

DDDLL

11Sporting CPHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.35–2.28
22CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.80–0.94
00Gil VicenteHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.27–0.27
01Santa ClaraAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.05–1.36
12CS MarítimoHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.59–1.61

How to read the CD Nacional vs Famalicão probabilities

CD Nacional vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 19 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Famalicão win 55%. Expected goals are 0.98–1.84. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–4.

Famalicão is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.98–1.84). Famalicão win is 55%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Clear lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about CD Nacional vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs Famalicão?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 55%. Home 18%, draw 27%, away 55%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs Famalicão?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will CD Nacional vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs Famalicão?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.