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Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2026/27

CD Nacional vs Famalicão prediction

Clear lean

Famalicão win 58%

· Estádio da Madeira

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

CD NacionalvsFamalicão
Clear lean

Famalicão win58%

CD Nacional win
16%
Draw
26%
Famalicão win
58%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
0.95–1.90

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
54%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Famalicão win 58%, from a -157 Elo gap (1382 vs 1539).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.95-1.90.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Tom Van De Looi listed out.

Match briefing

Elo

1382

-157

1539

Liga Portugal table
Out

CD NacionalNone out

No listed absences

Famalicão1 out

  • Tom Van De Looi
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

CD Nacional

LLLLW

Avg xG 1.14-2.09

Famalicão

DDDLL

Avg xG 0.81-1.29

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.3%
  2. 20210.5%
  3. 312Prediction9.9%
  4. 4019.1%
  5. 5007.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for CD Nacional versus Famalicão
CD Nacional goals012345
08%9%10%7%3%
14%12%10%6%3%
23%5%5%3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CD Nacional win

CD Nacional win: model 16%, fair 6.09, listed 3.75 (25%)

Fair

6.09

16% model

Listed

3.75

25% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.89, listed 3.30 (28%)

Fair

3.89

26% model

Listed

3.30

28% book

Famalicão win

Disagrees

Famalicão win: model 58%, fair 1.73, listed 1.98 (47%)

Fair

1.73

58% model

Listed

1.98

47% book

The model disagrees with the listed Famalicão win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 54%, fair 1.84, listed 2.10 (45%)

Fair
1.84
Listed
2.10

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 46%, fair 2.19, listed 1.75 (55%)

Fair
2.19
Listed
1.75

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.85, listed 1.85 (50%)

Fair
1.85
Listed
1.85

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.17, listed 1.85 (50%)

Fair
2.17
Listed
1.85

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CD NacionalNone out

No listed absences.

Famalicão1 out

  • Tom Van De LooiOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

CD Nacional

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Renato Marin · G
  2. 21 Williams Kokolo · D
  3. 33 Francisco Gonçalves · D
  4. 38 Ze Vitor · D
  5. 52 Wesley Gasolina · D
  6. 6 Matheus Dias · M
  7. 7 Markus Jensen · M
  8. 8 Miguel Baeza · M
  9. 10 Daniel Júnior · M
  10. 11 Stavros Gavriel · M
  11. 99 Pablo Messias Cardozo · F

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Lazar Carević · G
  2. 4 Finn van Breemen · D
  3. 15 Victor Rofino · D
  4. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro · D
  5. 28 Pedro Bondo · D
  6. 7 Sorriso · M
  7. 8 Marcos Peña · M
  8. 14 Mathias De Amorim · M
  9. 21 Tamás Szűcs · M
  10. 23 Gil Dias · M
  11. 70 Georgios Koutsias · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CD Nacional

LLLLW
  • 13FC AlvercaHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.20–1.16

  • 02Sporting CPAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.08–3.00

  • 23CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.92–2.34

  • 01Vitória SCAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–3.14

  • 20Estoril PraiaHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.08–0.82

Famalicão

DDDLL
  • 11Sporting CPHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 0.35–2.28

  • 22CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.80–0.94

  • 00Gil VicenteHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.27–0.27

  • 01Santa ClaraAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.05–1.36

  • 12CS MarítimoHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.59–1.61

How to read the CD Nacional vs Famalicão probabilities

CD Nacional vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 19 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Famalicão win 58%. Expected goals are 0.95–1.90. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Famalicão is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.95–1.90). Famalicão win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CD Nacional vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs Famalicão?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 58%. Home 16%, draw 26%, away 58%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs Famalicão?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will CD Nacional vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs Famalicão?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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