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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão prediction

Slight lean

Famalicão win 41%

· Estádio José Gomes

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 1/4 checks hit

CF Estrela Amadora

2–2

Draw

Famalicão

1X2

Famalicão win

41%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 41%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

CF Estrela AmadoravsFamalicão
Slight lean

Famalicão win41%

CF Estrela Amadora win
26%
Draw
32%
Famalicão win
41%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15% · Miss

Expected goals
1.03–1.34

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
42%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS
50%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Famalicão win 41%, from a -119 Elo gap (1417 vs 1536).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.03-1.34.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1417

-119

1536

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

10 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

CF Estrela Amadora

WDDDD

Avg xG 1.14-1.93

Famalicão

DLLDW

Avg xG 0.78-0.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction15.4%
  2. 20011.8%
  3. 30110.0%
  4. 4128.7%
  5. 5028.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CF Estrela Amadora versus Famalicão
CF Estrela Amadora goals012345
012%10%8%4%
17%15%9%4%
25%7%4%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CF Estrela Amadora win

CF Estrela Amadora win: model 26%, fair 3.80, listed 3.10 (31%)

Fair

3.80

26% model

Listed

3.10

31% book

Draw

Draw: model 32%, fair 3.08, listed 3.20 (30%)

Fair

3.08

32% model

Listed

3.20

30% book

Famalicão win

Famalicão win: model 41%, fair 2.42, listed 2.53 (38%)

Fair

2.42

41% model

Listed

2.53

38% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 42%, fair 2.36, listed 2.26 (43%)

Fair
2.36
Listed
2.26

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 58%, fair 1.74, listed 1.68 (57%)

Fair
1.74
Listed
1.68

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 2.00, listed 1.87 (50%)

Fair
2.00
Listed
1.87

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 2.00, listed 1.85 (50%)

Fair
2.00
Listed
1.85

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

CF Estrela Amadora

  1. 40 Renan Ribeiro · G · changed
  2. 5 Stefan Leković · D
  3. 21 Max Scholze · D
  4. 30 Luan Patrick · D
  5. 83 Otavio · D · changed
  6. 8 Robinho · M · changed
  7. 24 Bruno Langa · M · changed
  8. 39 Eddy Doué · M
  9. 99 Abraham Marcus · M
  10. 9 Rodrigo Pinho · F · changed
  11. 10 Ianis Stoica · F

Famalicão

  1. 25 Lazar Carević · G
  2. 3 Léo Realpe · D
  3. 4 Finn van Breemen · D
  4. 16 Justin De Haas · D · changed
  5. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro · D
  6. 55 Rafa Soares · D · changed
  7. 6 Tom Van De Looi · M · changed
  8. 7 Sorriso · M
  9. 14 Mathias De Amorim · M
  10. 20 Gustavo Sá · M · changed
  11. 23 Gil Dias · M · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

CF Estrela Amadora

4-2-3-1

  1. 24 Léo Linck · G · changed
  2. 5 Stefan Leković · D
  3. 21 Max Scholze · D
  4. 30 Luan Patrick · D
  5. 55 Rafa Soares · D · changed
  6. 10 Ianis Stoica · M
  7. 14 Lovro Zvonarek · M · changed
  8. 39 Eddy Doué · M
  9. 71 Emerson Pedro Vanga · M · changed
  10. 99 Abraham Marcus · M
  11. 37 Leandro Antonetti · F · changed

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Lazar Carević · G
  2. 3 Léo Realpe · D
  3. 4 Finn van Breemen · D
  4. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro · D
  5. 28 Pedro Bondo · D · changed
  6. 7 Sorriso · M
  7. 8 Marcos Peña · M · changed
  8. 14 Mathias De Amorim · M
  9. 18 Romeo Beney · M · changed
  10. 19 Paulo Moreira · M · changed
  11. 70 Georgios Koutsias · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CF Estrela Amadora

WDDDD
  • 32CD NacionalAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.34–0.92

  • 22FC AlvercaAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–1.75

  • 22Sporting CPHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.10–2.63

  • 22Sporting BragaAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.71–2.38

  • 00FamalicãoHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.26–1.97

Famalicão

DLLDW
  • 00Gil VicenteHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.27–0.27

  • 01Santa ClaraAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.05–1.36

  • 12CS MarítimoHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.59–1.61

  • 11Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Aug 2026

    xG 1.47–1.06

  • 10FC AlvercaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.52–0.45

How to read the CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão probabilities

CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Famalicão win 41%. Expected goals are 1.03–1.34. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–2.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.03–1.34). That shows up as Famalicão win at 41%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 42%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 41%. Home 26%, draw 32%, away 41%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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