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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo prediction

Slight lean

FC Arouca win 43%

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 2/4 checks hit

FC Arouca

2–1

FC Arouca won

CS Marítimo

1X2

FC Arouca win

43%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted FC Arouca win · 43%

Actual FC Arouca won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

FC AroucavsCS Marítimo
Slight lean

FC Arouca win43%

FC Arouca win
43%
Draw
30%
CS Marítimo win
27%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 14% · Miss

Expected goals
1.48–1.14

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS
55%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: FC Arouca win 43%, from a +87 Elo gap (1504 vs 1416).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.48-1.14.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1504

+87

1416

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

11 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

FC Arouca

LWWWW

Avg xG 1.24-1.42

CS Marítimo

DWWLW

Avg xG 1.07-0.78

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction14.4%
  2. 2009.5%
  3. 321Result9.1%
  4. 4108.7%
  5. 5208.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Arouca versus CS Marítimo
FC Arouca goals012345
09%6%5%
19%14%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

FC Arouca win

FC Arouca win: model 43%, fair 2.33, listed 2.08 (46%)

Fair

2.33

43% model

Listed

2.08

46% book

Draw

Draw: model 30%, fair 3.32, listed 3.40 (28%)

Fair

3.32

30% model

Listed

3.40

28% book

CS Marítimo win

CS Marítimo win: model 27%, fair 3.72, listed 3.79 (25%)

Fair

3.72

27% model

Listed

3.79

25% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.06, listed 2.10 (46%)

Fair
2.06
Listed
2.10

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.94, listed 1.78 (54%)

Fair
1.94
Listed
1.78

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.83, listed 1.82 (51%)

Fair
1.83
Listed
1.82

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.20, listed 1.88 (49%)

Fair
2.20
Listed
1.88

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

FC Arouca

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 15 Javi Sánchez · D
  4. 25 Bas Kuipers · D · changed
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 14 Hyun-ju Lee · M · changed
  10. 19 Alfonso Trezza · M
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F

CS Marítimo

  1. 31 Marcelo Carné · G · changed
  2. 2 Igor Julião · D
  3. 3 Moises Mosquera · D · changed
  4. 5 Zainadine Júnior · D · changed
  5. 23 Paulo Henrique · D
  6. 27 Paulinho · D · changed
  7. 94 Vitor Costa · D · changed
  8. 21 João Afonso · M · changed
  9. 23 Bruno Xadas · M · changed
  10. 71 Félix Correia · M · changed
  11. 7 André Vidigal · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

FC Arouca

4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 15 Javi Sánchez · D
  4. 18 Orest Lebedenko · D · changed
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 10 Pablo Gozálbez · M · changed
  10. 19 Alfonso Trezza · M
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F

CS Marítimo

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Alfonso Pastor · G · changed
  2. 2 Igor Julião · D
  3. 4 Rafael Fernandes · D · changed
  4. 23 Paulo Henrique · D
  5. 44 Romain Correia · D · changed
  6. 6 Rodrigo Andrade · M · changed
  7. 10 Martín Tejón · M · changed
  8. 14 Raphael Guzzo · M · changed
  9. 18 Vladan Danilović · M · changed
  10. 35 Bryan Limbombe · M · changed
  11. 17 Adrián Butzke · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Arouca

LWWWW
  • 02FC PortoAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.54–2.92

  • 40MoreirenseHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.14–0.49

  • 10Vitória SCAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 0.43–2.28

  • 31TondelaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.77–0.62

  • 31Gil VicenteAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 1.32–0.77

CS Marítimo

DWWLW
  • 22Académico Viseu FCHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.28–1.84

  • 21FamalicãoAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.61–0.59

  • 10Casa PiaHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.39–0.67

  • 13Estoril PraiaAway · 27 May 2023

    xG 0.00–0.00

  • 10VizelaHome · 19 May 2023

How to read the FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo probabilities

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean. FC Arouca win 43%. Expected goals are 1.48–1.14. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

FC Arouca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.48–1.14). That shows up as FC Arouca win at 43%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · FC Arouca win
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 30%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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