Public prediction data

Endpoints

• GET /api/predictions — JSON { count, predictions }.
• GET /api/predictions.csv — flat CSV, one row per prediction, stable column order (94 columns).

Both are static at build. There are no query filters today: the dump is the full published file for Liga Portugal, La Liga, Premier League, Allsvenskan, Ligue 1, and Serie A. Coverage grows when a league’s official model is frozen.

Freeze and the ledger

Upcoming cards in the next seven days can be refit when a new league result lands, using only finished league matches before the cutoff. After kick-off the published probabilities do not move; only the score is joined. That is freeze: frozen_after_kickoff becomes true and Hit/Miss scoring can land on the match URL.

If a confirmed XI arrives before kick-off, a second snapshot can be stored. The pre-lineup freeze stays on the match page as “Before XI” and in prelineup_* columns. Misses stay visible. The dated public quote of walk-forward metrics is the scored ledger note.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Prediction fields

Every field on the website Prediction type is present in JSON. CSV keeps scalars and nested markets as columns; arrays and XI blocks are JSON strings in a single cell so a spreadsheet stays one row per match.

id

Stable website id for the row (league + slug).

slug

URL slug segment for the match page.

competition

Display name of the live league.

competition_key

Machine key for the competition (filters and paths).

home_team / away_team

Club names as published.

home_team_id / away_team_id

SofaScore team ids when known; otherwise null.

home_logo / away_logo

Crest paths served from the site.

predicted_score

Mode of the score grid (e.g. 1-1).

predicted_score_probability

Probability of that mode scoreline from the same grid.

expected_goals_home / expected_goals_away

Poisson means (λ) for each side; not a shot map.

home_win / draw / away_win

1X2 shares from the score grid; they sum to 1.

over_2_5 / over_1_5 / over_3_5

Totals lines from the same grid. over_1_5 and over_3_5 may be null on rows frozen before those lines shipped.

btts

Both teams to score; sum of scorelines with goals for both sides.

top_scorelines

Array of { score, p }. In CSV this column is a JSON string.

kickoff

Scheduled kick-off (ISO). Shown on site in Europe/Lisbon.

generated_at

When this published snapshot was written.

prediction_cutoff

Data cutoff used for the fit that produced this snapshot.

training_data_cutoff

Last finished league match allowed into training for this fit.

prediction_mode

How the row was produced (e.g. prelineup vs confirmed-lineup path).

frozen_after_kickoff

True once kick-off has passed and probabilities must not move.

model_version

Frozen official model id for the league.

game_id

Upstream fixture id when known.

round / season

League round number and season label.

status

upcoming | played | postponed. Postponed fixtures are kept but not board-listed.

result_home_goals / result_away_goals / result_outcome

Joined after the match. outcome is H, D, or A. Null while still open.

rescheduled_game_id / rescheduled_kickoff

Replacement fixture when a postponed game was rescheduled.

venue

Stadium name when known.

rho

Dixon-Coles low-score dependence parameter for the fit.

game_pick_*

Optional headline pick fields (market, selection, label, probability, strength, threshold). Empty when absent. Not a tip; a labelled share from the grid.

home_elo_pre / away_elo_pre / elo_diff

Pre-match Elo inputs used for the fit.

lineups_confirmed / xi_source

Whether SofaScore posted a confirmed XI, and which XI source fed the page.

home_formation / away_formation / home_xi / away_xi

Formations and player lists for the published XI path. Arrays are JSON in CSV.

forecast_xi / confirmed_xi

Structured XI blocks: forecast XI that fed probabilities, and confirmed XI when posted. JSON in CSV.

missing_players_home / missing_players_away

Out / doubtful / suspended lists. JSON in CSV (split by side).

home_last5 / away_last5

Recent form rows. JSON in CSV.

prelineup_*

Probability snapshot from before a confirmed-XI refit (“Before XI” on the match page). Empty when unused.

market_1x2_* / market_over_25_* / market_btts_*

Optional listed book snapshot (decimal prices and implied shares). Used only to show where the model disagrees with the price. Empty when no snapshot.

CSV column order

Headers are fixed. Older JSON without a field still exports; cells are empty.

1. id
2. slug
3. competition
4. competition_key
5. home_team
6. away_team
7. home_team_id
8. away_team_id
9. home_logo
10. away_logo
11. predicted_score
12. predicted_score_probability
13. expected_goals_home
14. expected_goals_away
15. home_win
16. draw
17. away_win
18. over_2_5
19. over_1_5
20. over_3_5
21. btts
22. top_scorelines
23. kickoff
24. generated_at
25. prediction_cutoff
26. training_data_cutoff
27. prediction_mode
28. frozen_after_kickoff
29. model_version
30. game_id
31. round
32. season
33. status
34. result_home_goals
35. result_away_goals
36. result_outcome
37. rescheduled_game_id
38. rescheduled_kickoff
39. venue
40. rho
41. game_pick_market
42. game_pick_selection
43. game_pick_label
44. game_pick_probability
45. game_pick_strength
46. game_pick_threshold
47. home_elo_pre
48. away_elo_pre
49. elo_diff
50. lineups_confirmed
51. xi_source
52. home_formation
53. away_formation
54. home_xi
55. away_xi
56. forecast_xi
57. confirmed_xi
58. missing_players_home
59. missing_players_away
60. home_last5
61. away_last5
62. prelineup_home_win
63. prelineup_draw
64. prelineup_away_win
65. prelineup_expected_goals_home
66. prelineup_expected_goals_away
67. prelineup_predicted_score
68. prelineup_predicted_score_probability
69. prelineup_generated_at
70. prelineup_prediction_cutoff
71. prelineup_prediction_mode
72. market_1x2_source
73. market_1x2_scraped_at
74. market_1x2_n_bookmakers
75. market_1x2_home
76. market_1x2_draw
77. market_1x2_away
78. market_1x2_implied_home
79. market_1x2_implied_draw
80. market_1x2_implied_away
81. market_over_25_source
82. market_over_25_scraped_at
83. market_over_25_n_bookmakers
84. market_over_25_over
85. market_over_25_under
86. market_over_25_implied_over
87. market_over_25_implied_under
88. market_btts_source
89. market_btts_scraped_at
90. market_btts_n_bookmakers
91. market_btts_yes
92. market_btts_no
93. market_btts_implied_yes
94. market_btts_implied_no

Related

• Methodology — how the grid is built.
• Results — walk-forward log loss, RPS, ECE.
• llms.txt — machine-readable site map for agents.