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Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga Prediction

Slight lean

Sporting Braga win 45%

· Estádio José Gomes

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

CF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoravsSporting Braga crestSporting Braga
Slight lean

Sporting Braga win45%

CF Estrela Amadora win
24%
Draw
31%
Sporting Braga win
45%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15%

Expected goals
1.02–1.46

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%
BTTS
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Sporting Braga win 45%, from a -237 Elo gap (1417 vs 1653).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.02-1.46.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo
CF Estrela Amadora crest

1417

-237

Sporting Braga crest

1653

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Last league XI
4-3-3/3-4-2-1
Last 5

CF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

WDDDD

Avg xG 1.14-1.93

Sporting Braga crestSporting Braga

WDDDD

Avg xG 1.05-1.07

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction14.9%
  2. 20010.8%
  3. 3019.8%
  4. 4129.1%
  5. 5028.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CF Estrela Amadora versus Sporting Braga
CF Estrela Amadora goals012345
011%10%9%4%
16%15%9%4%
24%6%5%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

CF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

4-3-3

  1. 24 Léo Linck · G
  2. 5 Stefan Leković · D
  3. 21 Max Scholze · D
  4. 30 Luan Patrick · D
  5. 55 Rafa Soares · D
  6. 8 Robinho · M
  7. 14 Lovro Zvonarek · M
  8. 39 Eddy Doué · M
  9. 10 Ianis Stoica · F
  10. 37 Leandro Antonetti · F
  11. 99 Abraham Marcus · F

Sporting Braga crestSporting Braga

3-4-2-1

  1. 31 Bernardo Fontes · G
  2. 6 Vítor Carvalho · D
  3. 14 Gustaf Lagerbielke · D
  4. 22 Sergio Barcia · D
  5. 2 Victor Gómez · M
  6. 7 Diogo Travassos · M
  7. 8 João Moutinho · M
  8. 34 Demir Ege Tıknaz · M
  9. 10 Pau Víctor · F
  10. 11 Gabriel Silva · F
  11. 20 Mario Dorgeles · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

WDDDD
  • 32CD NacionalAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.34–0.92

  • 22FC AlvercaAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–1.75

  • 22Sporting CPHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.10–2.63

  • 22Sporting BragaAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.71–2.38

  • 00FamalicãoHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.26–1.97

Sporting Braga crestSporting Braga

WDDDD
  • 10Vitória SCHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.93–0.47

  • 22MoreirenseAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.32–0.22

  • 22CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 2.38–0.71

  • 22BenficaAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.20–2.91

  • 11Estoril PraiaHome · 3 May 2026

    xG 0.40–1.06

How to read the CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga probabilities

CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga (Liga Portugal, 10 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Sporting Braga win 45%. Expected goals are 1.02–1.46. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sporting Braga holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.02–1.46). That shows up as Sporting Braga win at 45%, not a lock.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Sporting Braga win
Kick-off
Thu 10 Sept, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga

Who is favourite for CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sporting Braga win at 45%. Home 24%, draw 31%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga?
BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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