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Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2026/27

Vitória SC vs Moreirense prediction

Clear lean

Vitória SC win 68%

· Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Vitória SCvsMoreirense
Clear lean

Vitória SC win68%

Vitória SC win
68%
Draw
23%
Moreirense win
10%
Prediction
2–0

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
2.04–0.67

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Vitória SC win 68%, from a +21 Elo gap (1497 vs 1476).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.04-0.67.
  3. 3Prediction 2–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1497

+21

1476

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Vitória SC

LDLWL

Avg xG 1.86-0.90

Moreirense

LLWLD

Avg xG 0.47-2.03

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Prediction13.8%
  2. 21011.9%
  3. 31110.7%
  4. 4309.4%
  5. 5219.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Vitória SC versus Moreirense
Vitória SC goals012345
08%3%
112%11%3%
214%9%3%
39%6%2%
45%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Vitória SC win

Vitória SC win: model 68%, fair 1.47, listed 1.54 (60%)

Fair

1.47

68% model

Listed

1.54

60% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.42, listed 3.80 (25%)

Fair

4.42

23% model

Listed

3.80

25% book

Moreirense win

Moreirense win: model 10%, fair 10.52, listed 6.21 (15%)

Fair

10.52

10% model

Listed

6.21

15% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.97, listed 2.03 (47%)

Fair
1.97
Listed
2.03

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 1.83 (53%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
1.83

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.00 (47%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
2.00

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.75

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

  1. 48 Oliwier Zych · G
  2. 5 Franck Ahmed Sidibé · D
  3. 13 João Mendes · D
  4. 23 Tony Strata · D
  5. 28 Thiago Balieiro · D
  6. 7 Oumar Camara · M
  7. 11 Gustavo Silva · M
  8. 16 Beni Mukendi · M
  9. 20 Samu · M
  10. 44 Lohann Doucet · M
  11. 9 Arnel Jakupović · F

Moreirense

4-2-3-1

  1. 13 André Ferreira · G
  2. 26 Maracás · D
  3. 27 Kiko · D
  4. 66 Gilberto Batista · D
  5. 76 Dinis Pinto · D
  6. 7 Manuel Mendonça · M
  7. 8 Mateja Stjepanović · M
  8. 11 Landerson · M
  9. 21 Rodrigo Alonso · M
  10. 23 Nile John · M
  11. 9 Alexandre Parsemain · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Vitória SC

LDLWL
  • 12Académico Viseu FCAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.10–1.83

  • 00Casa PiaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 2.48–0.21

  • 01Sporting BragaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.47–0.93

  • 10CD NacionalHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.14–0.42

  • 23Sporting CPAway · 14 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–1.12

Moreirense

LLWLD
  • 04BenficaHome · 9 Sept 2026

    xG 0.39–2.99

  • 12FC PortoAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.85–2.90

  • 10Casa PiaAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–0.82

  • 04FC AroucaAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.49–2.14

  • 22Sporting BragaHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.22–1.32

How to read the Vitória SC vs Moreirense probabilities

Vitória SC vs Moreirense (Liga Portugal, 20 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Vitória SC win 68%. Expected goals are 2.04–0.67. Prediction 2–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Vitória SC is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.04–0.67). Vitória SC win is 68%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Vitória SC win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Vitória SC vs Moreirense

Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 68%. Home 68%, draw 23%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Vitória SC vs Moreirense go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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