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Liga Portugal round 5 results

Liga Portugal round 5 has 1 scored match on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 100%; prediction hits 0. Every favourite in this round landed. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Portugal. Model v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 5. Ledger updated 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Liga Portugal reliability

Round 5 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 42% (173 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 44% (269 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 52% (169 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 72% (128 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 73% (94 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 90% (57 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 95% (19 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Liga Portugal: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0309 on 909 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0309. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 73% of 94 matches.

ECE
0.0309
Log loss
0.9320
RPS
0.1829
Walk-forward
909
1X2 accuracy
56%
Goal MAE
0.88
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%42%173+5%
40–50%45%44%269−0%
50–60%55%52%169−3%
60–70%65%72%128+7%
70–80%75%73%94−2%
80–90%84%90%57+5%
90–100%92%95%19+3%
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Liga Portugal round 5 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
1
Favourite-correct
100%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
FC Porto vs Moreirense52–13–0MissFC Porto win · 83%HitOverHitNoMiss

Previous: round 4All Liga Portugal results

Liga Portugal predictions

Liga Portugal round 5 questions

How did Expected90 do in Liga Portugal round 5?
1 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 100% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Liga Portugal round 5 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Liga Portugal rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5.

v1.4.0-elo-span16

Liga Portugal

Live season 2026/27 · round 5

Matches scored
34
Log loss
0.8912
RPS
0.1701
Goal MAE
0.85
1X2 accuracy
53%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.