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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC prediction

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 72%

· Estádio José Alvalade

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit

Sporting CP

3–2

Sporting CP won

Vitória SC

1X2

Sporting CP win

72%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 2–0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Sporting CP win · 72%

Actual Sporting CP won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–0

Actual 3–2

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

Sporting CPvsVitória SC
Strong favourite

Sporting CP win72%

Open game
Sporting CP win
72%
Draw
19%
Vitória SC win
9%
Prediction
2–0

Grid peak · 12% · Miss

Expected goals
2.37–0.75

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
60%

Over · 5 goals · Hit

BTTS
49%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 72%, from a +299 Elo gap (1809 vs 1509).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.37-0.75.
  3. 3Prediction 2–0 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 60%.
  5. 5José Ribeiro listed out.

Match briefing

Elo

1809

+299

1509

Liga Portugal table
Out

Sporting CPNone out

No listed absences

Vitória SC1 out

  • José Ribeiro
XI
Expected XI

9 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Sporting CP

DWWWD

Avg xG 2.45-0.92

Vitória SC

LLLLW

Avg xG 1.27-1.45

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Prediction12.4%
  2. 2309.8%
  3. 3219.3%
  4. 4119.2%
  5. 5109.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sporting CP versus Vitória SC
Sporting CP goals012345
06%
19%9%3%
212%9%3%
310%7%3%
46%4%
53%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Sporting CP win

Sporting CP win: model 72%, fair 1.38, listed 1.38 (67%)

Fair

1.38

72% model

Listed

1.38

67% book

Draw

Draw: model 19%, fair 5.21, listed 4.70 (20%)

Fair

5.21

19% model

Listed

4.70

20% book

Vitória SC win

Vitória SC win: model 9%, fair 11.68, listed 7.15 (13%)

Fair

11.68

9% model

Listed

7.15

13% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Sporting CPNone out

No listed absences.

Vitória SC1 out

  • José RibeiroOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:02 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Sporting CP

  1. 1 Rui Silva · G
  2. 6 Zeno Debast · D · changed
  3. 25 Gonçalo Inácio · D
  4. 72 Eduardo Quaresma · D
  5. 5 Hidemasa Morita · M · changed
  6. 8 Pedro Gonçalves · M · changed
  7. 20 Maximiliano Araújo · M
  8. 23 Daniel Bragança · M · changed
  9. 10 Geny Catamo · F
  10. 17 Francisco Trincão · F · changed
  11. 97 Luis Javier Suárez · F · changed

Vitória SC

  1. 27 Charles · G · changed
  2. 4 Óscar Rivas · D
  3. 13 João Mendes · D
  4. 23 Tony Strata · D · changed
  5. 28 Thiago Balieiro · D
  6. 8 Gonçalo Nogueira · M
  7. 11 Gustavo Silva · M
  8. 16 Beni Mukendi · M
  9. 17 Miguel Nogueira · M · changed
  10. 20 Samu · M
  11. 7 Oumar Camara · F
Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Sporting CP

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Rui Silva · G
  2. 13 Georgios Vagiannidis · D · changed
  3. 20 Maximiliano Araújo · D
  4. 25 Gonçalo Inácio · D
  5. 72 Eduardo Quaresma · D
  6. 5 Sergi Altimira · M · changed
  7. 10 Geny Catamo · M
  8. 17 Rodrigo Zalazar · M · changed
  9. 58 Flávio Gonçalves · M · changed
  10. 77 Issa Doumbia · M · changed
  11. 7 Fotis Ioannidis · F · changed

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

  1. 48 Oliwier Zych · G · changed
  2. 2 Miguel Maga · D · changed
  3. 4 Óscar Rivas · D
  4. 13 João Mendes · D
  5. 28 Thiago Balieiro · D
  6. 7 Oumar Camara · M
  7. 8 Gonçalo Nogueira · M
  8. 11 Gustavo Silva · M
  9. 16 Beni Mukendi · M
  10. 20 Samu · M
  11. 24 Alioune Ndoye · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sporting CP

DWWWD
  • 22CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 2.63–1.10

  • 30Gil VicenteHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.61–0.64

  • 41Rio AveAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 1.56–0.97

  • 51Vitória SCHome · 4 May 2026

    xG 4.57–0.61

  • 22TondelaHome · 29 Apr 2026

    xG 1.90–1.27

Vitória SC

LLLLW
  • 01FC AroucaHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 2.28–0.43

  • 02CD NacionalAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.33–0.94

  • 01Casa PiaHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.94–0.88

  • 15Sporting CPAway · 4 May 2026

    xG 0.61–4.57

  • 20Rio AveHome · 25 Apr 2026

    xG 1.17–0.44

How to read the Sporting CP vs Vitória SC probabilities

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC (Liga Portugal, 14 Aug 2026): Strong favourite. Sporting CP win 72%. Expected goals are 2.37–0.75. Prediction 2–0 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–2.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.37–0.75). Sporting CP win is 72%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:02 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off
Fri 14 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sporting CP vs Vitória SC

Who is favourite for Sporting CP vs Vitória SC?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 72%. Home 72%, draw 19%, away 9%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sporting CP vs Vitória SC?
2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Sporting CP vs Vitória SC go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sporting CP vs Vitória SC?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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