Note · 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC
Scored ledger as of 18 Oct 2026
This note is the citable snapshot of the Expected90 probability ledger on 18 Oct 2026. The diagrams and round tables live on the results pages. The numbers here are the ones a journalist or model can quote without scraping a dashboard.
Log loss and ranked probability score (RPS) are the metrics the official models optimise. Lower is better. Favourite 1X2 is reported because people ask; it is not the objective. Frozen walk-forward: Liga Portugal log loss 0.9320 on 909 matches; La Liga log loss 0.9703 on 1140 matches; Premier League log loss 0.9796 on 1140 matches; Allsvenskan log loss 1.0142 on 720 matches; Ligue 1 log loss 0.9982 on 917 matches; Serie A log loss 0.9830 on 1140 matches. Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS are scored on the same ledger when the performance JSON carries a markets block.
The live 2026/27 sample is still small. We publish it anyway, including noisy rounds. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live as of 18 Oct 2026: Liga Portugal 41 scored, favourite-correct 53.66%; La Liga 75 scored, favourite-correct 48.00%; Premier League 20 scored, favourite-correct 35.00%; Allsvenskan 5 scored, favourite-correct 40.00%; Ligue 1 0 scored, favourite-correct —; Serie A 0 scored, favourite-correct —. Vs closing line: Liga Portugal live log loss 0.9008 vs closing line 0.8786 on 41 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0222 log loss. La Liga live log loss 0.9869 vs closing line 0.9304 on 75 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0565 log loss. Premier League live log loss 1.0154 vs closing line 1.0244 on 20 scored matches with a listed price — ahead of the closing line by 0.0090 log loss. Allsvenskan live log loss 1.2678 vs closing line 1.2286 on 5 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0392 log loss. Goals markets: Liga Portugal Over 2.5 log loss 0.6749 vs closing line 0.6548 on 16 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0154 log loss. Liga Portugal Under 2.5 log loss 0.6749 vs closing line 0.6548 on 16 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0154 log loss. Liga Portugal BTTS log loss 0.7132 vs closing line 0.6652 on 16 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0353 log loss. La Liga Over 2.5 log loss 0.7057 vs closing line 0.5795 on 53 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.1156 log loss. La Liga Under 2.5 log loss 0.7057 vs closing line 0.5795 on 53 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.1156 log loss. La Liga BTTS log loss 0.6894 vs closing line 0.6646 on 53 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0315 log loss. Premier League Over 2.5 log loss 0.7012 vs closing line 0.7258 on 15 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0012 log loss. Premier League Under 2.5 log loss 0.7012 vs closing line 0.7258 on 15 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0012 log loss. Premier League BTTS log loss 0.6578 vs closing line 0.6728 on 15 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0138 log loss. Allsvenskan Over 2.5 log loss 0.7984 vs closing line 0.8704 on 5 scored matches with a listed price — ahead of the closing line by 0.0721 log loss. Allsvenskan Under 2.5 log loss 0.7984 vs closing line 0.8704 on 5 scored matches with a listed price — ahead of the closing line by 0.0721 log loss. Allsvenskan BTTS log loss 0.7119 vs closing line 0.7644 on 5 scored matches with a listed price — ahead of the closing line by 0.0526 log loss. Original probabilities stay on each match URL after kick-off.
Frozen walk-forward
Official models, PRELINEUP, scored after kick-off. 5966 matches across live leagues.
| League | Matches | Log loss | RPS | ECE | Favourite 1X2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Portugal 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 909 | 0.9320 | 0.1829 | 0.0309 | 56.11% |
| La Liga 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 1140 | 0.9703 | 0.1935 | 0.0180 | 53.16% |
| Premier League 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 1140 | 0.9796 | 0.1997 | 0.0326 | 54.21% |
| Allsvenskan 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 720 | 1.0142 | 0.2191 | 0.0572 | 49.72% |
| Ligue 1 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 917 | 0.9982 | 0.2084 | 0.0246 | 50.71% |
| Serie A 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 1140 | 0.9830 | 0.1938 | 0.0242 | 53.25% |
Live 2026/27 sample
Published even when noisy. 141 scored matches as of 18 Oct 2026.
| League | Matches | Log loss | RPS | Favourite 1X2 | Vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Portugal 2026/27 · Round 5 | 41 | 0.9008 | 0.1722 | 53.66% | Liga Portugal live log loss 0.9008 vs closing line 0.8786 on 41 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0222 log loss. |
| La Liga 2026/27 · Round 9 | 75 | 0.9869 | 0.1963 | 48.00% | La Liga live log loss 0.9869 vs closing line 0.9304 on 75 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0565 log loss. |
| Premier League 2026/27 · Round 3 | 20 | 1.0154 | 0.1708 | 35.00% | Premier League live log loss 1.0154 vs closing line 1.0244 on 20 scored matches with a listed price — ahead of the closing line by 0.0090 log loss. |
| Allsvenskan 2026/27 · Round 20 | 5 | 1.2678 | 0.2536 | 40.00% | Allsvenskan live log loss 1.2678 vs closing line 1.2286 on 5 scored matches with a listed price — behind the closing line by 0.0392 log loss. |
| Ligue 1 2026/27 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| Serie A 2026/27 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
Reliability diagrams and round-by-round Hit/Miss sit on model performance. How the grid is built is on methodology.
Questions
- What is log loss on a football prediction?
- Log loss scores the full 1X2 distribution, not whether the favourite won. A confident miss is penalised more than a cautious one. Expected90 publishes it because a hit rate can look fine while the probabilities are badly calibrated.
- Why is live Liga Portugal favourite-correct 53.66%?
- The live Liga Portugal sample is 41 scored matches through 2026/27 · Round 5. That is too small to judge the model. The frozen walk-forward is 909 matches at log loss 0.9320.
- Does this page overwrite last month’s numbers?
- The URL stays /notes/calibration. The as-of date and tables update when the ledger is republished. Frozen walk-forward metrics only move if an official model is re-frozen.