Note · 1 Sept 2026, 17:54 UTC
Scored ledger as of 1 Sept 2026
This note is the citable snapshot of the Expected90 probability ledger on 1 Sept 2026. The diagrams and round tables live on the results pages. The numbers here are the ones a journalist or model can quote without scraping a dashboard.
Log loss and ranked probability score (RPS) are the metrics the official models optimise. Lower is better. Favourite 1X2 is reported because people ask; it is not the objective. Frozen walk-forward: Liga Portugal log loss 0.9354 on 909 matches; La Liga log loss 0.9732 on 1140 matches; Premier League log loss 0.9796 on 1140 matches.
The live 2026/27 sample is still small. We publish it anyway, including noisy rounds. Live as of 1 Sept 2026: Liga Portugal 33 scored, favourite-correct 51.52%; La Liga 30 scored, favourite-correct 53.33%; Premier League 10 scored, favourite-correct 40.00%. Original probabilities stay on each match URL after kick-off.
Frozen walk-forward
Official models, PRELINEUP, scored after kick-off. 3189 matches across live leagues.
| League | Matches | Log loss | RPS | ECE | Favourite 1X2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Portugal 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 909 | 0.9354 | 0.1839 | 0.0326 | 56.44% |
| La Liga 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 1140 | 0.9732 | 0.1944 | 0.0260 | 53.16% |
| Premier League 2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward | 1140 | 0.9796 | 0.1997 | 0.0326 | 54.21% |
Live 2026/27 sample
Published even when noisy. 73 scored matches as of 1 Sept 2026.
| League | Matches | Log loss | RPS | Favourite 1X2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Portugal 2026/27 · Round 4 | 33 | 0.9125 | 0.1748 | 51.52% |
| La Liga 2026/27 · Round 3 | 30 | 0.9350 | 0.1883 | 53.33% |
| Premier League 2026/27 · Round 2 | 10 | 0.9920 | 0.1917 | 40.00% |
Reliability diagrams and round-by-round Hit/Miss sit on model performance. How the grid is built is on methodology.
Questions
- What is log loss on a football prediction?
- Log loss scores the full 1X2 distribution, not whether the favourite won. A confident miss is penalised more than a cautious one. Expected90 publishes it because a hit rate can look fine while the probabilities are badly calibrated.
- Why is live Liga Portugal favourite-correct 51.52%?
- The live Liga Portugal sample is 33 scored matches through 2026/27 · Round 4. That is too small to judge the model. The frozen walk-forward is 909 matches at log loss 0.9354.
- Does this page overwrite last month’s numbers?
- The URL stays /notes/calibration. The as-of date and tables update when the ledger is republished. Frozen walk-forward metrics only move if an official model is re-frozen.