Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 31%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Arouca vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

FC Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction

Slight lean

FC Arouca win 39%

Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Published 7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

FC Aroucavs

Santa Clara

Slight lean

FC Arouca win39%

FC Arouca win: 39%
Draw: 31%
Santa Clara win: 30%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.37–1.18
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: FC Arouca win 39%, from a +16 Elo gap (1509 vs 1493).
2Expected goals 1.37-1.18.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: FC Arouca crest
1509
+16
Santa Clara crest
1493
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: FC Arouca crestFC Arouca
WLWWW
Avg xG 1.29-1.40
Santa Clara crestSanta Clara
WDWWD
Avg xG 1.47-0.76

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction15.1%
20010.3%
3218.6%
4108.2%
5127.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Arouca versus Santa Clara
FC Arouca goals	0	1	2	3
0	10%	7%	5%	2%
1	8%	15%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%
3	3%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

FC Arouca crestFC Arouca

4-2-3-1

Santa Clara crestSanta Clara

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Arouca crestFC Arouca

WLWWW

21CS MarítimoHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.55–0.70
02FC PortoAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.54–2.92
40MoreirenseHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 2.14–0.49
10Vitória SCAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 0.43–2.28
31TondelaHome · 16 May 2026
xG 1.77–0.62

Santa Clara crestSanta Clara

WDWWD

40Rio AveHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.80–0.32
11FC AlvercaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.49–0.61
10FamalicãoHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.36–1.05
10Académico Viseu FCAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 1.27–0.58
22CD NacionalHome · 10 Aug 2026
xG 1.43–1.23

How to read the FC Arouca vs Santa Clara probabilities

FC Arouca vs Santa Clara (Liga Portugal, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. FC Arouca win 39%. Expected goals are 1.37–1.18. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

FC Arouca and Santa Clara are close on expected goals (1.37–1.18), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · FC Arouca win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about FC Arouca vs Santa Clara

Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 31%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will FC Arouca vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.