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Liga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

FC Arouca vs Santa Clara prediction

Slight lean

FC Arouca win 39%

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 6 · 1/4 checks hit

FC Arouca

1–2

Santa Clara won

Santa Clara

1X2

FC Arouca win

39%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted FC Arouca win · 39%

Actual Santa Clara won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

FC AroucavsSanta Clara
Slight lean

FC Arouca win39%

FC Arouca win
39%
Draw
32%
Santa Clara win
30%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15% · Miss

Expected goals
1.36–1.17

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
46%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS
54%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: FC Arouca win 39%, from a +16 Elo gap (1509 vs 1493).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.36-1.17.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1509

+16

1493

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

3 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5

FC Arouca

DWLWW

Avg xG 1.15-1.45

Santa Clara

WDWWD

Avg xG 1.47-0.76

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction15.2%
  2. 20010.5%
  3. 3218.6%
  4. 4108.3%
  5. 5207.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Arouca versus Santa Clara
FC Arouca goals012345
011%7%5%2%
18%15%7%3%
27%9%5%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

FC Arouca win

FC Arouca win: model 39%, fair 2.58, listed 2.66 (36%)

Fair

2.58

39% model

Listed

2.66

36% book

Draw

Draw: model 32%, fair 3.15, listed 3.15 (31%)

Fair

3.15

32% model

Listed

3.15

31% book

Santa Clara win

Santa Clara win: model 30%, fair 3.39, listed 2.95 (33%)

Fair

3.39

30% model

Listed

2.95

33% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 46%, fair 2.16, listed 2.28 (42%)

Fair
2.16
Listed
2.28

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 54%, fair 1.86, listed 1.67 (58%)

Fair
1.86
Listed
1.67

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.86, listed 1.85 (50%)

Fair
1.86
Listed
1.85

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.16, listed 1.85 (50%)

Fair
2.16
Listed
1.85

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 12 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

FC Arouca

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 15 Javi Sánchez · D
  4. 18 Orest Lebedenko · D
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 10 Pablo Gozálbez · M
  10. 19 Alfonso Trezza · M
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F

Santa Clara

  1. 1 Lucas França · G
  2. 2 Diogo Calila · D · changed
  3. 4 Pedro Pacheco · D
  4. 5 Guilherme Romão · D
  5. 21 Emanuel Fernandes · D
  6. 23 Sidney Lima · D · changed
  7. 6 Pedro Ferreira · M
  8. 8 José Tavares · M
  9. 9 Gonçalo Paciência · F
  10. 70 Vinícius Lopes · F
  11. 99 Sorriso · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed3 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

FC Arouca

4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena · G
  2. 3 Jose Fontán · D
  3. 15 Javi Sánchez · D
  4. 18 Orest Lebedenko · D
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio · D
  6. 6 Espen Van Ee · M
  7. 7 Naïs Djouahra · M
  8. 8 Taichi Fukui · M
  9. 10 Pablo Gozálbez · M
  10. 19 Alfonso Trezza · M
  11. 17 Ivan Barbero · F

Santa Clara

4-3-3

  1. 1 Lucas França · G
  2. 4 Pedro Pacheco · D
  3. 5 Guilherme Romão · D
  4. 21 Emanuel Fernandes · D
  5. 42 Lucas Soares · D · changed
  6. 6 Pedro Ferreira · M
  7. 8 José Tavares · M
  8. 20 Tiago Ribeiro · M · changed
  9. 9 Gonçalo Paciência · F
  10. 10 Brenner · F · changed
  11. 70 Vinícius Lopes · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Arouca

DWLWW
  • 00Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 1.07–0.86

  • 21CS MarítimoHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.55–0.70

  • 02FC PortoAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.54–2.92

  • 40MoreirenseHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.14–0.49

  • 10Vitória SCAway · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 0.43–2.28

Santa Clara

WDWWD
  • 40Rio AveHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.80–0.32

  • 11FC AlvercaAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.49–0.61

  • 10FamalicãoHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.36–1.05

  • 10Académico Viseu FCAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.27–0.58

  • 22CD NacionalHome · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 1.43–1.23

How to read the FC Arouca vs Santa Clara probabilities

FC Arouca vs Santa Clara (Liga Portugal, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. FC Arouca win 39%. Expected goals are 1.36–1.17. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

FC Arouca and Santa Clara are close on expected goals (1.36–1.17), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
12 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · FC Arouca win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Arouca vs Santa Clara

Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 32%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will FC Arouca vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs Santa Clara?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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