Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 45%. Home 25%, draw 29%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Estoril Praia vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

Estoril Praia vs Famalicão prediction

Slight lean

Famalicão win 45%

Fri 7 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon · Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Published 7 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 2/4 checks hit

Estoril Praia

1–1

Draw

Famalicão

1X2

Famalicão win

45%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 45%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Estoril PraiavsFamalicão

Slight lean

Famalicão win45%

Estoril Praia win: 25%
Draw: 29%
Famalicão win: 45%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.08–1.52
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Famalicão win 45%, from a -93 Elo gap (1466 vs 1559).
2Expected goals 1.08-1.52.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1466
-93
1559
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Confirmed
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Estoril Praia
LDDLL
Avg xG 0.85-1.53
Famalicão
WDDWD
Avg xG 1.15-0.84

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111ModalResult14.1%
2019.4%
3009.3%
412Prediction9.3%
5028.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Estoril Praia versus Famalicão
Estoril Praia goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	9%	9%	4%
1	6%	14%	9%	5%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 12 Sept 2026, 20:06 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Estoril Praia win

Disagrees

Fair

3.97

25% model

Listed

2.98

32% book

Draw

Fair

3.40

29% model

Listed

3.25

29% book

Famalicão win

Fair

2.20

45% model

Listed

2.43

39% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Estoril Praia win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Confirmed XI

Confirmed

SofaScore's confirmed elevens. The expected XI this forecast used was not stored with the freeze.

Estoril Praia

4-2-3-1

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Estoril Praia

LDDLL

13BenficaHome · 16 May 2026
xG 1.52–4.15
11FC AlvercaAway · 10 May 2026
xG 0.87–1.15
11Sporting BragaAway · 3 May 2026
xG 1.06–0.40
01FamalicãoHome · 26 Apr 2026
xG 0.44–1.15
01MoreirenseAway · 20 Apr 2026
xG 0.35–0.82

Famalicão

WDDWD

10FC AlvercaHome · 16 May 2026
xG 0.52–0.45
00CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 11 May 2026
xG 1.97–0.26
22BenficaHome · 2 May 2026
xG 1.58–1.29
10Estoril PraiaAway · 26 Apr 2026
xG 1.15–0.44
22Sporting BragaAway · 19 Apr 2026
xG 0.51–1.78

How to read the Estoril Praia vs Famalicão probabilities

Estoril Praia vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 7 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Famalicão win 45%. Expected goals are 1.08–1.52. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.08–1.52). That shows up as Famalicão win at 45%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 48%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 7 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off: Fri 7 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Estoril Praia vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 45%. Home 25%, draw 29%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Estoril Praia vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?: BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.