Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Benfica?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 70%. Home 9%, draw 21%, away 70%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Benfica?

0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CS Marítimo vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Benfica?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

CS Marítimo vs Benfica prediction

Strong favourite

Benfica win 70%

Sat 5 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon · Estadio do Maritimo

Published 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 3/4 checks hit

CS Marítimo

0–3

Benfica won

Benfica

1X2

Benfica win

70%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 0–2 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Benfica win · 70%

Actual Benfica won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 0–2

Actual 0–3

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CS MarítimovsBenfica

Strong favourite

Benfica win70%

CS Marítimo win: 9%
Draw: 21%
Benfica win: 70%

Prediction: 0–2
Expected goals: 0.76–2.28
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Benfica win 70%, from a -387 Elo gap (1412 vs 1799).
2Expected goals 0.76-2.28.
3Prediction 0–2 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1412
-387
1799
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: CS Marítimo
LDWWL
Avg xG 1.00-0.93
Benfica
WWDWD
Avg xG 3.11-0.65

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Prediction12.4%
2119.9%
3129.5%
403Result9.4%
5019.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CS Marítimo versus Benfica
CS Marítimo goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	9%	12%	9%	5%	2%
1	2%	10%	9%	7%	4%
2		3%	4%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:31 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CS Marítimo win

Fair

10.78

9% model

Listed

16.00

6% book

Draw

Fair

4.84

21% model

Listed

7.72

13% book

Benfica win

Disagrees

Fair

1.43

70% model

Listed

1.19

81% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Benfica win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.71
Listed: 1.53

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.42
Listed: 2.54

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.02
Listed: 2.12

BTTS no

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 1.68

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

CS Marítimo

Benfica

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

CS Marítimo

4-3-3

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CS Marítimo

LDWWL

12FC AroucaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–1.55
22Académico Viseu FCHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.28–1.84
21FamalicãoAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.61–0.59
10Casa PiaHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.39–0.67
13Estoril PraiaAway · 27 May 2023
xG 0.00–0.00

Benfica

WWDWD

21Estoril PraiaHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–0.36
70Casa PiaAway · 17 Aug 2026
xG 3.04–0.12
22Académico Viseu FCHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 3.44–1.07
31Estoril PraiaAway · 16 May 2026
xG 4.15–1.52
22Sporting BragaHome · 11 May 2026
xG 2.91–0.20

How to read the CS Marítimo vs Benfica probabilities

CS Marítimo vs Benfica (Liga Portugal, 5 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Benfica win 70%. Expected goals are 0.76–2.28. Prediction 0–2 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–3.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.76–2.28). Benfica win is 70%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–2 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about CS Marítimo vs Benfica

Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Benfica?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 70%. Home 9%, draw 21%, away 70%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Benfica?: 0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CS Marítimo vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Benfica?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.