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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

CS Marítimo vs Benfica Prediction

· Estadio do Maritimo · CS Marítimo predictions · Benfica predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimovsBBenfica crestBenfica

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Benfica win 71% · Open game

CS Marítimo win
10%
Draw
20%
Benfica win
71%
CS Marítimo win %
10%
Draw %
20%
Benfica win %
71%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Benfica win 71%, from a -381 Elo gap (1416 vs 1797).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.81-2.36.
  3. 3Modal score 0-2 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 61%.
  5. 5Nathanael Ogbeta listed out.
Elo

1416 -381 1797

CS Marítimo vs Benfica

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Nathanael Ogbeta · CS Marítimo
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

CS MarítimoD W W L W1.07-0.78 xG

BenficaW D W D D2.97-0.90 xG

Modal score

0-2

Highest cell in the score grid · 12%

Verdict

Strong favourite

Benfica win · 71%

Expected goals

0.81–2.36

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CS Marítimo versus Benfica
CS Marítimo goals012345
06%9%12%9%5%3%
19%9%7%4%2%
23%4%3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
61%
BTTS %
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-2Modal11.8%
  2. 1-29.5%
  3. 1-19.4%
  4. 0-39.3%
  5. 0-18.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo

Out

  • Nathanael Ogbeta · D · Unknown

BBenfica crestBenfica

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo4-2-3-1

  1. 13Alfonso PastorG
  2. 2Igor JuliãoD
  3. 4Rafael FernandesD
  4. 23Paulo HenriqueD
  5. 44Romain CorreiaD
  6. 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  7. 10Martín TejónM
  8. 11Simo BouzaidiM
  9. 14Raphael GuzzoM
  10. 18Vladan DanilovićM
  11. 17Adrián ButzkeF

BBenfica crestBenfica4-2-3-1

  1. 24Samuel SoaresG
  2. 2Clément LengletD
  3. 6Alexander BahD
  4. 26Samuel DahlD
  5. 44Tomás AraújoD
  6. 5Enzo BarrenecheaM
  7. 10Georgiy SudakovM
  8. 18Leandro BarreiroM
  9. 25Gianluca PrestianniM
  10. 27Rafa SilvaM
  11. 14Vangelis PavlidisF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoD W W L W

  • H · Académico Viseu FC · 22 Aug 20262-21.28-1.84 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 16 Aug 20262-11.61-0.59 xG
  • H · Casa Pia · 8 Aug 20261-01.39-0.67 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 27 May 20231-30.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Vizela · 19 May 20231-0

BBenfica crestBenficaW D W D D

  • A · Casa Pia · 17 Aug 20267-03.04-0.12 xG
  • H · Académico Viseu FC · 9 Aug 20262-23.44-1.07 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 16 May 20263-14.15-1.52 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 11 May 20262-22.91-0.20 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 2 May 20262-21.29-1.58 xG

How to read the CS Marítimo vs Benfica probabilities

CS Marítimo vs Benfica (Liga Portugal, 5 Sept 2026): Strong favourite — Benfica win 71%. Expected goals are 0.81–2.36. Modal score 0-2 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.81–2.36). Benfica win is 71% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 0-2 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 61%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CS Marítimo vs Benfica

Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Benfica?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 71%. Home 10%, draw 20%, away 71%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Benfica?

0-2 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CS Marítimo vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Benfica?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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