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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC prediction

Clear lean

Gil Vicente win 62%

· Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Gil Vicente

0–1

Académico Viseu FC won

Académico Viseu FC

1X2

Gil Vicente win

62%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Gil Vicente win · 62%

Actual Académico Viseu FC won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–0

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

Gil VicentevsAcadémico Viseu FC
Clear lean

Gil Vicente win62%

Gil Vicente win
62%
Draw
26%
Académico Viseu FC win
12%
Prediction
2–0

Grid peak · 13% · Miss

Expected goals
1.88–0.74

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS
47%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Gil Vicente win 62%, from a +69 Elo gap (1496 vs 1427).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.88-0.74.
  3. 3Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo

1496

+69

1427

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

8 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1
Last 5

Gil Vicente

DWWLL

Avg xG 1.02-0.83

Académico Viseu FC

LDLD

Avg xG 1.07-1.86

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Prediction12.8%
  2. 21112.2%
  3. 31011.6%
  4. 4219.5%
  5. 5009.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Gil Vicente versus Académico Viseu FC
Gil Vicente goals012345
09%3%2%
112%12%4%
213%10%4%
38%6%2%
44%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Gil Vicente win

Disagrees

Gil Vicente win: model 62%, fair 1.60, listed 2.46 (39%)

Fair

1.60

62% model

Listed

2.46

39% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.91, listed 3.02 (32%)

Fair

3.91

26% model

Listed

3.02

32% book

Académico Viseu FC win

Académico Viseu FC win: model 12%, fair 8.27, listed 3.30 (29%)

Fair

8.27

12% model

Listed

3.30

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Gil Vicente win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.05, listed 2.50 (39%)

Fair
2.05
Listed
2.50

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.95, listed 1.57 (61%)

Fair
1.95
Listed
1.57

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 47%, fair 2.15, listed 2.02 (46%)

Fair
2.15
Listed
2.02

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 53%, fair 1.87, listed 1.70 (54%)

Fair
1.87
Listed
1.70

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Gil Vicente

  1. 99 Dani Figueira · G · changed
  2. 2 Zé Carlos · D · changed
  3. 3 Ghislain Konan · D · changed
  4. 4 Marvin Elimbi Gilbert · D
  5. 39 Jonathan Buatu · D
  6. 5 Facundo Cáseres · M · changed
  7. 10 Luís Esteves · M · changed
  8. 10 Santi García · M · changed
  9. 77 Murilo · M
  10. 11 Joelson Fernandes · F
  11. 23 Héctor Hernández · F

Académico Viseu FC

  1. 98 Ewerton · G
  2. 2 Nikolaos Michelis · D
  3. 41 Anthony Correia · D
  4. 66 Igor Milioransa · D · changed
  5. 75 Robinho · D
  6. 8 Cihan Kahraman · M
  7. 14 Soufiane Messeguem · M
  8. 31 João Guilherme · M
  9. 45 Alejandro Mestanza · M · changed
  10. 10 Álvaro Zamora · F
  11. 33 André Clóvis · F
Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Gil Vicente

4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Lucão · G · changed
  2. 4 Marvin Elimbi Gilbert · D
  3. 26 Weverson · D · changed
  4. 39 Jonathan Buatu · D
  5. 47 Ricardo Esgaio · D · changed
  6. 6 Zé Carlos · M · changed
  7. 11 Joelson Fernandes · M
  8. 20 Gil Martins · M · changed
  9. 77 Murilo · M
  10. 86 Diogo Prioste · M · changed
  11. 23 Héctor Hernández · F

Académico Viseu FC

4-1-4-1

  1. 98 Ewerton · G
  2. 2 Nikolaos Michelis · D
  3. 41 Anthony Correia · D
  4. 57 Gu Costa · D · changed
  5. 75 Robinho · D
  6. 7 Luís Silva · M · changed
  7. 8 Cihan Kahraman · M
  8. 10 Álvaro Zamora · M
  9. 14 Soufiane Messeguem · M
  10. 31 João Guilherme · M
  11. 33 André Clóvis · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Gil Vicente

DWWLL
  • 00FamalicãoAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.27–0.27

  • 20Casa PiaHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–0.76

  • 10Rio AveHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.66–0.19

  • 03Sporting CPAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.64–1.61

  • 13FC AroucaHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.77–1.32

Académico Viseu FC

LDLD
  • 03FC PortoHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.79–1.47

  • 22CS MarítimoAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.84–1.28

  • 01Santa ClaraHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 0.58–1.27

  • 22BenficaAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.07–3.44

How to read the Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC probabilities

Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC (Liga Portugal, 6 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Gil Vicente win 62%. Expected goals are 1.88–0.74. Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–1.

Gil Vicente is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.88–0.74). Gil Vicente win is 62%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Gil Vicente win
Kick-off
Sun 6 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC

Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 62%. Home 62%, draw 26%, away 12%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?
2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?
BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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