Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 29%, away 17%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC Prediction

Sun 6 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos · Gil Vicente predictions · Académico Viseu FC predictions

Published 30 Aug 2026, 19:37 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Gil Vicentevs

Académico Viseu FC

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win 54%

Gil Vicente win: 54%
Draw: 29%
Académico Viseu FC win: 17%

Gil Vicente win %: 54%
Draw %: 29%
Académico Viseu FC win %: 17%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Gil Vicente win 54%, from a +67 Elo gap (1496 vs 1429).
2Expected goals 1.61-0.83.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.

Elo

1496 +67 1429

Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC

Liga Portugal table

Out

None listed

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

Last 5

Gil VicenteD W W L L1.20-0.97 xG

Académico Viseu FCD L D1.16-2.00 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win · 54%

Expected goals

1.61–0.83

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Gil Vicente versus Académico Viseu FC
Gil Vicente goals	0	1	2
0	11%	5%	3%
1	12%	14%	5%
2	11%	9%	4%
3	6%	5%	2%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 44%
BTTS %: 48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal13.9%
1-011.7%
2-011.3%
0-010.9%
2-19.4%

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Gil Vicente crestGil Vicente4-2-3-1

30LucãoG
4Marvin Elimbi GilbertD
26WeversonD
39Jonathan BuatuD
47Ricardo EsgaioD
5Facundo CáseresM
11Joelson FernandesM
20Gil MartinsM
32Martin FernándezM
86Diogo PriosteM
23Héctor HernándezF

Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FC4-3-3

98EwertonG
2Nikolaos MichelisD
5Pedro BarcelosD
41Anthony CorreiaD
75RobinhoD
6André CeitilM
8Cihan KahramanM
14Soufiane MesseguemM
31João GuilhermeF
33André ClóvisF
47Lorougnon GohiF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Gil Vicente crestGil VicenteD W W L L

A · Famalicão · 30 Aug 20260-0
H · Casa Pia · 24 Aug 20262-01.74-0.76 xG
H · Rio Ave · 9 Aug 20261-01.66-0.19 xG
A · Sporting CP · 16 May 20260-30.64-1.61 xG
H · FC Arouca · 11 May 20261-30.77-1.32 xG

Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCD L D

A · CS Marítimo · 22 Aug 20262-21.84-1.28 xG
H · Santa Clara · 15 Aug 20260-10.58-1.27 xG
A · Benfica · 9 Aug 20262-21.07-3.44 xG

How to read the Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC probabilities

Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC (Liga Portugal, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Gil Vicente win 54%. Expected goals are 1.61–0.83. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Gil Vicente is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.61–0.83). Gil Vicente win is 54%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 19:37 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Gil Vicente win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC

Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 29%, away 17%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?: 1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14%, the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Académico Viseu FC?: BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.