Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 73%. Home 8%, draw 19%, away 73%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Casa Pia vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction

Strong favourite

Benfica win 73%

Mon 17 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Published 13 Aug 2026, 17:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 3/4 checks hit

Casa Pia

0–7

Benfica won

Benfica

1X2

Benfica win

73%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 0–2 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Benfica win · 73%

Actual Benfica won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 0–2

Actual 0–7

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 7 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Casa PiavsBenfica

Strong favourite

Benfica win73%

Casa Pia win: 8%
Draw: 19%
Benfica win: 73%

Prediction: 0–2
Expected goals: 0.67–2.30
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Benfica win 73%, from a -365 Elo gap (1430 vs 1795).
2Expected goals 0.67-2.30.
3Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1430
-365
1795
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Confirmed
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Casa Pia
LDWLL
Avg xG 1.12-1.30
Benfica
DWDDW
Avg xG 2.76-1.05

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Prediction13.5%
20110.4%
30310.4%
4119.3%
5129.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Casa Pia versus Benfica
Casa Pia goals	0	1	2	3	4	5	7
0	6%	10%	14%	10%	6%	3%	0%
1	2%	9%	9%	7%	4%
2		3%	3%	2%
3
4
5
6
7

Away goals 0-7 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Casa Pia win

Fair

12.72

8% model

Listed

14.99

6% book

Draw

Fair

5.15

19% model

Listed

6.76

14% book

Benfica win

Disagrees

Fair

1.38

73% model

Listed

1.18

80% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Benfica win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Confirmed XI

Confirmed

SofaScore's confirmed elevens. The expected XI this forecast used was not stored with the freeze.

Casa Pia

4-3-3

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Casa Pia

LDWLL

01CS MarítimoAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.39
11Rio AveHome · 16 May 2026
xG 2.45–0.75
10Vitória SCAway · 11 May 2026
xG 0.88–0.94
01TondelaHome · 3 May 2026
xG 0.38–1.53
12Gil VicenteAway · 27 Apr 2026
xG 1.21–1.88

Benfica

DWDDW

22Académico Viseu FCHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 3.44–1.07
31Estoril PraiaAway · 16 May 2026
xG 4.15–1.52
22Sporting BragaHome · 11 May 2026
xG 2.91–0.20
22FamalicãoAway · 2 May 2026
xG 1.29–1.58
41MoreirenseHome · 25 Apr 2026
xG 1.99–0.89

How to read the Casa Pia vs Benfica probabilities

Casa Pia vs Benfica (Liga Portugal, 17 Aug 2026): Strong favourite. Benfica win 73%. Expected goals are 0.67–2.30. Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–7.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.67–2.30). Benfica win is 73%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–2 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Aug 2026, 17:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off: Mon 17 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Casa Pia vs Benfica

Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs Benfica?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 73%. Home 8%, draw 19%, away 73%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs Benfica?: 0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Casa Pia vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?: BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.