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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction

· Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Casa Pia predictions · Benfica predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 3/4 checks hit
CPCasa Pia crest

Casa Pia

0–7

Benfica won

BBenfica crest

Benfica

1X2

Benfica win

73%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Modal 0-2 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Benfica win · 73%

Actual Benfica won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 0-2

Actual 0–7

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 7 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CPCasa Pia crestCasa PiavsBBenfica crestBenfica

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Benfica win 73%

Casa Pia win
8%
Draw
19%
Benfica win
73%
Casa Pia win %
8%
Draw %
19%
Benfica win %
73%

Predicted · Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Benfica win 73%, from a -365 Elo gap (1430 vs 1795).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.67-2.30.
  3. 3Modal score 0-2 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1430 -365 1795

Casa Pia vs Benfica

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Casa PiaL D W L L1.12-1.30 xG

BenficaD W D D W2.76-1.05 xG

Modal score

0-2

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Benfica win · 73% · Hit

Expected goals

0.67–2.30

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Casa Pia versus Benfica
Casa Pia goals01234567
06%10%14%10%6%3%0%
12%9%9%7%4%
23%3%2%
3
4
5
6
7

Away goals 0-7 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
57%

Over · 7 goals · Hit

BTTS %
46%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-2Modal13.5%
  2. 0-110.4%
  3. 0-310.4%
  4. 1-19.3%
  5. 1-29.1%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

CPCasa Pia crestCasa Pia4-3-3

  1. 31André GomesG
  2. 4João GoulartD
  3. 5Abdu ContéD
  4. 18André GeraldesD
  5. 43David SousaD
  6. 8Gabi PereiraM
  7. 24Sebastián PérezM
  8. 80Lawrence OforiM
  9. 9Henrique AraújoF
  10. 10RochinhaF
  11. 19Kevin PrietoF

BBenfica crestBenfica4-2-3-1

  1. 24Samuel SoaresG
  2. 2Clément LengletD
  3. 6Alexander BahD
  4. 26Samuel DahlD
  5. 44Tomás AraújoD
  6. 5Enzo BarrenecheaM
  7. 10Georgiy SudakovM
  8. 18Leandro BarreiroM
  9. 25Gianluca PrestianniM
  10. 27Rafa SilvaM
  11. 14Vangelis PavlidisF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CPCasa Pia crestCasa PiaL D W L L

  • A · CS Marítimo · 8 Aug 20260-10.67-1.39 xG
  • H · Rio Ave · 16 May 20261-12.45-0.75 xG
  • A · Vitória SC · 11 May 20261-00.88-0.94 xG
  • H · Tondela · 3 May 20260-10.38-1.53 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 27 Apr 20261-21.21-1.88 xG

BBenfica crestBenficaD W D D W

  • H · Académico Viseu FC · 9 Aug 20262-23.44-1.07 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 16 May 20263-14.15-1.52 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 11 May 20262-22.91-0.20 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 2 May 20262-21.29-1.58 xG
  • H · Moreirense · 25 Apr 20264-11.99-0.89 xG

How to read the Casa Pia vs Benfica probabilities

Casa Pia vs Benfica (Liga Portugal, 17 Aug 2026): Strong favourite — Benfica win 73%. Expected goals are 0.67–2.30. Modal score 0-2 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–7.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.67–2.30). Benfica win is 73% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 0-2 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
13 Aug 2026, 17:08 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off
Mon 17 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Casa Pia vs Benfica

Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 73%. Home 8%, draw 19%, away 73%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

0-2 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Casa Pia vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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