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Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP prediction

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 74%

· Estádio José Gomes

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit

CF Estrela Amadora

2–2

Draw

Sporting CP

1X2

Sporting CP win

74%Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 0–2 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Sporting CP win · 74%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 0–2

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

CF Estrela AmadoravsSporting CP
Strong favourite

Sporting CP win74%

CF Estrela Amadora win
8%
Draw
19%
Sporting CP win
74%
Prediction
0–2

Grid peak · 14% · Miss

Expected goals
0.66–2.32

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
57%

Over · 4 goals · Hit

BTTS
45%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 74%, from a -416 Elo gap (1399 vs 1815).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.66-2.32.
  3. 3Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Stefan Leković suspended and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1399

-416

1815

Liga Portugal table
Out

CF Estrela Amadora1 out

  • Stefan LekovićSuspended

Sporting CP1 out

  • Maximiliano AraújoSuspended
XI
Confirmed
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

CF Estrela Amadora

DDLLL

Avg xG 1.38-1.96

Sporting CP

WWWDD

Avg xG 2.58-1.00

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 102Prediction13.7%
  2. 20110.6%
  3. 30310.6%
  4. 4129.0%
  5. 5118.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CF Estrela Amadora versus Sporting CP
CF Estrela Amadora goals012345
06%11%14%11%6%3%
12%9%9%7%4%
23%3%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CF Estrela Amadora win

CF Estrela Amadora win: model 8%, fair 13.02, listed 8.50 (11%)

Fair

13.02

8% model

Listed

8.50

11% book

Draw

Draw: model 19%, fair 5.34, listed 5.08 (18%)

Fair

5.34

19% model

Listed

5.08

18% book

Sporting CP win

Sporting CP win: model 74%, fair 1.36, listed 1.31 (71%)

Fair

1.36

74% model

Listed

1.31

71% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CF Estrela Amadora1 out

  • Stefan LekovićSuspendedyellow or red card suspension

Sporting CP1 out

  • Maximiliano AraújoSuspendedred card suspension

Confirmed XI

Confirmed

SofaScore's confirmed elevens. The expected XI this forecast used was not stored with the freeze.

CF Estrela Amadora

4-2-3-1

  1. 24 Léo Linck · G
  2. 4 Bernardo Schappo · D
  3. 21 Max Scholze · D
  4. 30 Luan Patrick · D
  5. 55 Rafa Soares · D
  6. 10 Ianis Stoica · M
  7. 14 Lovro Zvonarek · M
  8. 39 Eddy Doué · M
  9. 78 Santiago Serra · M
  10. 99 Abraham Marcus · M
  11. 37 Leandro Antonetti · F

Sporting CP

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Rui Silva · G
  2. 13 Georgios Vagiannidis · D
  3. 25 Gonçalo Inácio · D
  4. 50 Rodrigo Dias · D
  5. 72 Eduardo Quaresma · D
  6. 5 Sergi Altimira · M
  7. 10 Geny Catamo · M
  8. 17 Rodrigo Zalazar · M
  9. 58 Flávio Gonçalves · M
  10. 77 Issa Doumbia · M
  11. 7 Fotis Ioannidis · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CF Estrela Amadora

DDLLL
  • 22Sporting BragaAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.71–2.38

  • 00FamalicãoHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.26–1.97

  • 23MoreirenseAway · 2 May 2026

    xG 2.83–1.87

  • 12FC PortoHome · 26 Apr 2026

    xG 1.76–1.81

  • 01FC AroucaAway · 19 Apr 2026

    xG 1.35–1.77

Sporting CP

WWWDD
  • 30Gil VicenteHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 1.61–0.64

  • 41Rio AveAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 1.56–0.97

  • 51Vitória SCHome · 4 May 2026

    xG 4.57–0.61

  • 22TondelaHome · 29 Apr 2026

    xG 1.90–1.27

  • 11AVS - Futebol SADAway · 26 Apr 2026

    xG 3.27–1.53

How to read the CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP probabilities

CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP (Liga Portugal, 8 Aug 2026): Strong favourite. Sporting CP win 74%. Expected goals are 0.66–2.32. Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.66–2.32). Sporting CP win is 74%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–2 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 45%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
8 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off
Sat 8 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP

Who is favourite for CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 74%. Home 8%, draw 19%, away 74%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?
0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?
BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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