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Liga Portugal crestLiga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Moreirense vs Benfica Prediction

· Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Moreirense predictions · Benfica predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Moreirense crestvsBenfica crest

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Benfica win 80% · Open game

Moreirense win
5%
Draw
15%
Benfica win
80%
Moreirense win %
5%
Draw %
15%
Benfica win %
80%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Benfica win 80%, from a -318 Elo gap (1480 vs 1799).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.62-2.68.
  3. 3Prediction 0–3 (12%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 13%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 64%.
  5. 5Yan Maranhão listed out.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Moreirense win5%19.6910.839%
Draw15%6.546.0315%
Benfica win80%1.261.2276%

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Over 2.564%1.561.4365%
Under 2.536%2.792.6035%
OutcomeModelFairListedBook
BTTS yes44%2.261.9148%
BTTS no56%1.801.7752%
Elo

1480 -318 1799

Moreirense vs Benfica

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Yan Maranhão · Moreirense
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

MoreirenseW L D D L0.50-1.53 xG

BenficaW W D W D3.11-0.65 xG

Prediction

0–3

Score with the 1X2 pick · 12%

Grid peak 0–2 at 13%

Verdict

Strong favourite

Benfica win · 80%

Expected goals

0.62–2.68

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 0–3, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Moreirense versus Benfica
Moreirense goals012345
05%9%13%12%8%4%
17%8%7%5%3%
23%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
64%
BTTS %
44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-2Modal13.2%
  2. 0-3Prediction11.8%
  3. 0-18.7%
  4. 1-28.2%
  5. 0-47.9%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Moreirense crestMoreirense

Out

  • Yan Maranhão · F · Unknown

Benfica crestBenfica

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Moreirense crestMoreirense4-2-3-1

  1. 13André FerreiraG
  2. 26MaracásD
  3. 27KikoD
  4. 66Gilberto BatistaD
  5. 76Dinis PintoD
  6. 7Manuel MendonçaM
  7. 11LandersonM
  8. 20João VelosoM
  9. 23Nile JohnM
  10. 65Guilherme LiberatoM
  11. 9Alexandre ParsemainF

Benfica crestBenfica4-2-3-1

  1. 24Samuel SoaresG
  2. 2Clément LengletD
  3. 6Alexander BahD
  4. 26Samuel DahlD
  5. 44Tomás AraújoD
  6. 5Enzo BarrenecheaM
  7. 10Georgiy SudakovM
  8. 18Leandro BarreiroM
  9. 25Gianluca PrestianniM
  10. 27Rafa SilvaM
  11. 14Vangelis PavlidisF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Moreirense crestMoreirenseW L D D L

  • A · Casa Pia · 30 Aug 20261-00.42-0.82 xG
  • A · FC Arouca · 16 Aug 20260-40.49-2.14 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 9 Aug 20262-20.22-1.32 xG
  • H · AVS - Futebol SAD · 16 May 20260-01.09-1.98 xG
  • A · Tondela · 11 May 20260-20.29-1.39 xG

Benfica crestBenficaW W D W D

  • H · Estoril Praia · 31 Aug 20262-12.03-0.36 xG
  • A · Casa Pia · 17 Aug 20267-03.04-0.12 xG
  • H · Académico Viseu FC · 9 Aug 20262-23.44-1.07 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 16 May 20263-14.15-1.52 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 11 May 20262-22.91-0.20 xG

How to read the Moreirense vs Benfica probabilities

Moreirense vs Benfica (Liga Portugal, 9 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Benfica win 80%. Expected goals are 0.62–2.68. Prediction 0–3 (12%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.62–2.68). Benfica win is 80%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 0–3 at 12%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 64%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 08:35 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off
Wed 9 Sept, 20:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Moreirense vs Benfica

Who is favourite for Moreirense vs Benfica?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 80%. Home 5%, draw 15%, away 80%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Moreirense vs Benfica?
0–3 is the published prediction at 12%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Moreirense vs Benfica go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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