Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 50%. Home 50%, draw 30%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2026/27

Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo prediction

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win 50%

Sat 19 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Published 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Gil VicentevsCS Marítimo

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win50%

Gil Vicente win: 50%
Draw: 30%
CS Marítimo win: 21%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.57–0.95
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Gil Vicente win 50%, from a +74 Elo gap (1484 vs 1410).
2Expected goals 1.57-0.95.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
4Arthur Tchaptchet listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1484
+74
1410
Liga Portugal table
Out: Gil Vicente2 out
Arthur Tchaptchet
Walace dos Santos França
CS MarítimoNone out
No listed absences
XI: Last league XI
5-4-1/4-3-3
Last 5: Gil Vicente
LLDWW
Avg xG 1.33-0.89
CS Marítimo
LLDWW
Avg xG 1.02-1.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal14.2%
21010.5%
30010.2%
4209.9%
521Prediction9.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Gil Vicente versus CS Marítimo
Gil Vicente goals	0	1	2
0	10%	5%	4%
1	11%	14%	6%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	5%	5%	2%
4	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:07 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Gil Vicente win

Disagrees

Fair

2.01

50% model

Listed

2.17

43% book

Draw

Fair

3.37

30% model

Listed

3.12

30% book

CS Marítimo win

Fair

4.84

21% model

Listed

3.37

28% book

The model disagrees with the listed Gil Vicente win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.17
Listed: 2.40

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.85
Listed: 1.55

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 2.02

BTTS no

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.72

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Gil Vicente2 out

Arthur TchaptchetOutUnknown
Walace dos Santos FrançaOutUnknown

CS MarítimoNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Gil Vicente

5-4-1

CS Marítimo

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Gil Vicente

LLDWW

13BenficaAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.11–2.90
01Académico Viseu FCHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–0.33
00FamalicãoAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.27–0.27
20Casa PiaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–0.76
10Rio AveHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.66–0.19

CS Marítimo

LLDWW

03BenficaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.12–1.31
12FC AroucaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–1.55
22Académico Viseu FCHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.28–1.84
21FamalicãoAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.61–0.59
10Casa PiaHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 1.39–0.67

How to read the Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo probabilities

Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Gil Vicente win 50%. Expected goals are 1.57–0.95. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Gil Vicente holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.57–0.95). That shows up as Gil Vicente win at 50%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Gil Vicente win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 50%. Home 50%, draw 30%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs CS Marítimo?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.