Tracked, not claimed

Model performance

Every published prediction is stored before kick-off and scored after the match. We report proper scoring rules, not cherry-picked win rates.

Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC

Historical prediction results

Expected90 model performance: walk-forward log loss, ranked probability score, and every tracked prediction after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. We still prefer log loss.

Matches in view: 58
Favourite-correct: 50%
Game pick hit rate: 47%
Exact score hits: 6

Match	Round	Result	Predicted Match Score	Game pick	Over/Under 2.5	BTTS
Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid	3	1–3	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol	3	2–1	2-1Hit	Real Sociedad winHit	UnderMiss	YesHit
Académico Viseu FC vs FC Porto	4	0–3	0-2Miss	FC Porto winHit	OverHit	NoHit
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United	2	0–2	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	OverMiss	YesMiss
Levante UD vs Real Betis	3	5–2	1-2Miss	Real Betis winMiss	OverHit	YesHit
FC Alverca vs Santa Clara	4	1–1	1-1Hit	DrawHit	UnderHit	YesHit
FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo	4	2–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderMiss	YesHit
Bournemouth vs Everton	2	1–1	2-1Miss	Bournemouth winMiss	OverMiss	YesHit
Coventry City vs Hull City	2	0–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	NoHit
Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest	2	2–2	2-1Miss	Liverpool FC winMiss	OverHit	YesHit
Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal	3	1–0	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Rio Ave vs Sporting CP	4	0–4	1-2Miss	Sporting CP winHit	OverHit	NoHit
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City	2	1–4	1-2Miss	Manchester City winHit	OverHit	YesHit
Real Racing Club vs Elche	3	3–2	2-1Miss	Real Racing Club winHit	UnderMiss	NoMiss
FC Barcelona vs Athletic Club	1	2–0	2-1Miss	FC Barcelona winHit	OverMiss	YesMiss
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna	1	1–2	2-1Miss	Celta Vigo winMiss	UnderMiss	YesHit
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad	1	4–1	3-1Miss	Real Madrid winHit	OverHit	YesHit
Valencia vs Real Betis	1	0–1	2-1Miss	Valencia winMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Málaga CF vs Deportivo de A Coruña	2	1–1	1-0Miss	Málaga CF winMiss	UnderHit	NoMiss
Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia	3	2–0	2-1Miss	Gil Vicente winHit	UnderHit	YesMiss
Osasuna vs Levante UD	2	0–0	2-1Miss	Osasuna winMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Elche vs FC Barcelona	2	0–5	1-2Miss	FC Barcelona winHit	UnderMiss	NoHit
FC Porto vs FC Arouca	3	2–0	2-0Hit	FC Porto winHit	OverMiss	NoHit
Getafe vs Real Racing Club	2	1–0	1-1Miss	Under 2.5Hit	UnderHit	NoHit
Santa Clara vs Famalicão	3	1–0	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal	2	2–2	2-1Miss	Atlético Madrid winMiss	UnderMiss	YesHit
Vitória SC vs CD Nacional	3	1–0	2-1Miss	Over 2.5Miss	OverMiss	YesMiss
Espanyol vs Real Madrid	2	1–2	1-2Hit	Real Madrid winHit	UnderMiss	YesHit
Sporting CP vs FC Alverca	3	3–1	3-0Miss	Sporting CP winHit	OverHit	NoMiss
Valencia vs Celta Vigo	2	0–0	2-1Miss	Valencia winMiss	UnderHit	NoHit
Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave	3	0–2	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Athletic Club vs Sevilla	2	1–3	2-1Miss	Athletic Club winMiss	UnderMiss	NoMiss
CS Marítimo vs Académico Viseu FC	3	2–2	2-1Miss	CS Marítimo winMiss	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad	2	1–0	2-1Miss	Real Betis winHit	OverMiss	YesMiss
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés	2	1–1	2-1Miss	Rayo Vallecano winMiss	UnderHit	NoMiss
Atlético Madrid vs Málaga CF	1	2–0	2-0Hit	Atlético Madrid winHit	OverMiss	NoHit
Casa Pia vs Benfica	2	0–7	0-2Miss	Benfica winHit	OverHit	NoHit
Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche	1	1–1	2-1Miss	Over 2.5Miss	OverMiss	YesHit
Famalicão vs CS Marítimo	2	1–2	2-1Miss	Famalicão winMiss	UnderMiss	YesHit
Espanyol vs Levante UD	1	3–0	2-1Miss	Espanyol winHit	UnderMiss	NoHit
FC Arouca vs Moreirense	2	4–0	2-1Miss	FC Arouca winHit	UnderMiss	NoHit
Real Racing Club vs Villarreal	1	2–2	0-1Miss	Villarreal winMiss	UnderMiss	NoMiss
CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia	2	2–0	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano	1	2–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Rio Ave vs FC Porto	2	0–2	1-2Miss	FC Porto winHit	UnderHit	NoHit
Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe	1	3–0	1-0Miss	Deportivo Alavés winHit	UnderMiss	NoHit
Académico Viseu FC vs Santa Clara	2	0–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	NoHit
FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora	2	2–2	1-1Miss	DrawHit	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Sporting CP vs Vitória SC	2	3–2	2-0Miss	Sporting CP winHit	OverHit	NoMiss
Santa Clara vs CD Nacional	1	2–2	1-1Miss	DrawHit	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave	1	1–0	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
Moreirense vs Sporting Braga	1	2–2	1-1Miss	DrawHit	UnderMiss	NoMiss
Benfica vs Académico Viseu FC	1	2–2	3-0Miss	Benfica winMiss	OverHit	NoMiss
FC Porto vs FC Alverca	1	2–0	2-0Hit	FC Porto winHit	OverMiss	NoHit
CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP	1	2–2	0-2Miss	Sporting CP winMiss	OverHit	NoMiss
Vitória SC vs FC Arouca	1	0–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	YesMiss
CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia	1	1–0	2-1Miss	CS Marítimo winHit	UnderHit	NoHit
Estoril Praia vs Famalicão	1	1–1	1-2Miss	Famalicão winMiss	UnderHit	YesHit

La Liga · Round 3Sat 29 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

SevillavsAM

Atlético Madrid

Final 1–3·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Sevilla: 32%
Draw: 29%
Madrid: 39%

xG home: 1.13
xG away: 1.26
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 49%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 3Sat 29 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Real SociedadvsE

Espanyol

Final 2–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Sociedad win

Hit

Sociedad: 41%
Draw: 28%
Espanyol: 32%

xG home: 1.38
xG away: 1.19
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 53%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 4Sat 29 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Académico Viseu FCvsP

FC Porto

Final 0–3·Predicted 0-2·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

FC: 8%
Draw: 19%
Porto: 73%

xG home: 0.69
xG away: 2.33
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 46%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Lisbon

Tottenham HotspurvsNU

Newcastle United

Final 0–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Hotspur: 37%
Draw: 30%
United: 33%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 1.32
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 3Sat 29 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon

Levante UDvsRB

Real Betis

Final 5–2·Predicted 1-2·Pick Real Betis win

Miss

UD: 36%
Draw: 26%
Betis: 39%

xG home: 1.43
xG away: 1.50
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 60%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 4Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

FC AlvercavsSC

Santa Clara

Final 1–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Alverca: 31%
Draw: 32%
Clara: 37%

xG home: 1.17
xG away: 1.29
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 4Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

FC AroucavsCM

CS Marítimo

Final 2–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Arouca: 43%
Draw: 30%
Marítimo: 27%

xG home: 1.48
xG away: 1.14
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 55%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon

BournemouthvsE

Everton

Final 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Bournemouth win

Miss

Bournemouth: 44%
Draw: 29%
Everton: 27%

xG home: 1.59
xG away: 1.20
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon

Coventry CityvsHC

Hull City

Final 0–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

City: 39%
Draw: 32%
City: 29%

xG home: 1.27
xG away: 1.05
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 49%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Lisbon

Liverpool FCvsNF

Nottingham Forest

Final 2–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Liverpool FC win

Miss

FC: 58%
Draw: 25%
Forest: 18%

xG home: 2.00
xG away: 1.04
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 3Fri 28 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Deportivo AlavésvsV

Villarreal

Final 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Alavés: 37%
Draw: 29%
Villarreal: 35%

xG home: 1.24
xG away: 1.20
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 4Fri 28 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Rio AvevsSC

Sporting CP

Final 0–4·Predicted 1-2·Pick Sporting CP win

Hit

Ave: 12%
Draw: 23%
CP: 64%

xG home: 0.81
xG away: 2.04
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Premier League · Round 2Fri 28 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Crystal PalacevsMC

Manchester City

Final 1–4·Predicted 1-2·Pick Manchester City win

Hit

Palace: 18%
Draw: 25%
City: 57%

xG home: 1.04
xG away: 1.98
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 3Fri 28 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Real Racing ClubvsE

Elche

Final 3–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Racing Club win

Hit

Club: 44%
Draw: 28%
Elche: 28%

xG home: 1.40
xG away: 1.05
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Thu 27 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

FC BarcelonavsAC

Athletic Club

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick FC Barcelona win

Hit

Barcelona: 72%
Draw: 17%
Club: 10%

xG home: 2.39
xG away: 0.81
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Thu 27 Aug, 19:30 Lisbon

Celta VigovsO

Osasuna

Final 1–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Celta Vigo win

Miss

Vigo: 46%
Draw: 27%
Osasuna: 28%

xG home: 1.51
xG away: 1.11
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Wed 26 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Real MadridvsRS

Real Sociedad

Final 4–1·Predicted 3-1·Pick Real Madrid win

Hit

Madrid: 77%
Draw: 15%
Sociedad: 8%

xG home: 2.65
xG away: 0.78
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Tue 25 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

ValenciavsRB

Real Betis

Final 0–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Valencia win

Miss

Valencia: 41%
Draw: 26%
Betis: 33%

xG home: 1.40
xG away: 1.22
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Mon 24 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Málaga CFvsDD

Deportivo de A Coruña

Final 1–1·Predicted 1-0·Pick Málaga CF win

Miss

CF: 44%
Draw: 28%
Coruña: 28%

xG home: 1.32
xG away: 0.99
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 3Mon 24 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Gil VicentevsCP

Casa Pia

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Gil Vicente win

Hit

Vicente: 48%
Draw: 30%
Pia: 22%

xG home: 1.51
xG away: 0.96
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Mon 24 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

OsasunavsL

Levante UD

Final 0–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Osasuna win

Miss

Osasuna: 44%
Draw: 27%
UD: 29%

xG home: 1.41
xG away: 1.10
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Sun 23 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

ElchevsB

FC Barcelona

Final 0–5·Predicted 1-2·Pick FC Barcelona win

Hit

Elche: 21%
Draw: 24%
Barcelona: 54%

xG home: 0.94
xG away: 1.65
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 49%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sun 23 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

FC PortovsA

FC Arouca

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-0·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

Porto: 67%
Draw: 22%
Arouca: 10%

xG home: 2.10
xG away: 0.73
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 47%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Sun 23 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

GetafevsRR

Real Racing Club

Final 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Under 2.5

Hit

Getafe: 39%
Draw: 31%
Club: 30%

xG home: 1.04
xG away: 0.88
Over 2.5: 30%
BTTS: 38%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sun 23 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Santa ClaravsF

Famalicão

Final 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Clara: 33%
Draw: 32%
Famalicão: 35%

xG home: 1.19
xG away: 1.21
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 51%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Sun 23 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon

Atlético MadridvsV

Villarreal

Final 2–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Atlético Madrid win

Miss

Madrid: 41%
Draw: 26%
Villarreal: 33%

xG home: 1.41
xG away: 1.25
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sun 23 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

Vitória SCvsN

CD Nacional

Final 1–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Over 2.5

Miss

SC: 54%
Draw: 22%
Nacional: 24%

xG home: 2.31
xG away: 1.53
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 72%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Sat 22 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

EspanyolvsRM

Real Madrid

Final 1–2·Predicted 1-2·Pick Real Madrid win

Hit

Espanyol: 21%
Draw: 24%
Madrid: 55%

xG home: 0.95
xG away: 1.70
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sat 22 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Sporting CPvsA

FC Alverca

Final 3–1·Predicted 3-0·Pick Sporting CP win

Hit

CP: 84%
Draw: 12%
Alverca: 4%

xG home: 2.98
xG away: 0.61
Over 2.5: 69%
BTTS: 44%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Sat 22 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

ValenciavsCV

Celta Vigo

Final 0–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Valencia win

Miss

Valencia: 48%
Draw: 27%
Vigo: 25%

xG home: 1.44
xG away: 0.95
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 47%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sat 22 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Estoril PraiavsRA

Rio Ave

Final 0–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Praia: 42%
Draw: 31%
Ave: 27%

xG home: 1.40
xG away: 1.08
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Sat 22 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon

Athletic ClubvsS

Sevilla

Final 1–3·Predicted 2-1·Pick Athletic Club win

Miss

Club: 49%
Draw: 26%
Sevilla: 25%

xG home: 1.47
xG away: 0.98
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 48%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 3Sat 22 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

CS MarítimovsAV

Académico Viseu FC

Final 2–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick CS Marítimo win

Miss

Marítimo: 53%
Draw: 29%
FC: 18%

xG home: 1.65
xG away: 0.89
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Fri 21 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Real BetisvsRS

Real Sociedad

Final 1–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Betis win

Hit

Betis: 56%
Draw: 24%
Sociedad: 21%

xG home: 1.74
xG away: 0.97
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 51%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 2Thu 20 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Rayo VallecanovsDA

Deportivo Alavés

Final 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Rayo Vallecano win

Miss

Vallecano: 51%
Draw: 26%
Alavés: 23%

xG home: 1.54
xG away: 0.94
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 48%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Wed 19 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Atlético MadridvsM

Málaga CF

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-0·Pick Atlético Madrid win

Hit

Madrid: 68%
Draw: 19%
CF: 13%

xG home: 2.07
xG away: 0.76
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 47%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Mon 17 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Casa PiavsB

Benfica

Final 0–7·Predicted 0-2·Pick Benfica win

Hit

Pia: 8%
Draw: 19%
Benfica: 73%

xG home: 0.67
xG away: 2.30
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 46%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Mon 17 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Deportivo de A CoruñavsE

Elche

Final 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Over 2.5

Miss

Coruña: 53%
Draw: 21%
Elche: 26%

xG home: 2.16
xG away: 1.49
Over 2.5: 71%
BTTS: 69%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

FamalicãovsCM

CS Marítimo

Final 1–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Famalicão win

Miss

Famalicão: 48%
Draw: 29%
Marítimo: 22%

xG home: 1.58
xG away: 1.01
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 53%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Sun 16 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

EspanyolvsL

Levante UD

Final 3–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Espanyol win

Hit

Espanyol: 41%
Draw: 27%
UD: 32%

xG home: 1.33
xG away: 1.13
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sun 16 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

FC AroucavsM

Moreirense

Final 4–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick FC Arouca win

Hit

Arouca: 50%
Draw: 30%
Moreirense: 20%

xG home: 1.54
xG away: 0.92
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Sun 16 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon

Real Racing ClubvsV

Villarreal

Final 2–2·Predicted 0-1·Pick Villarreal win

Miss

Club: 25%
Draw: 28%
Villarreal: 47%

xG home: 0.88
xG away: 1.33
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 43%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sun 16 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

CD NacionalvsEP

Estoril Praia

Final 2–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Nacional: 41%
Draw: 31%
Praia: 28%

xG home: 1.38
xG away: 1.10
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Sat 15 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

SevillavsRV

Rayo Vallecano

Final 2–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Sevilla: 35%
Draw: 28%
Vallecano: 37%

xG home: 1.15
xG away: 1.19
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 47%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sat 15 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Rio AvevsP

FC Porto

Final 0–2·Predicted 1-2·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

Ave: 15%
Draw: 27%
Porto: 58%

xG home: 0.79
xG away: 1.71
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 46%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

La Liga · Round 1Sat 15 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

Deportivo AlavésvsG

Getafe

Final 3–0·Predicted 1-0·Pick Deportivo Alavés win

Hit

Alavés: 46%
Draw: 28%
Getafe: 26%

xG home: 1.32
xG away: 0.92
Over 2.5: 39%
BTTS: 44%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sat 15 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Académico Viseu FCvsSC

Santa Clara

Final 0–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

FC: 35%
Draw: 33%
Clara: 32%

xG home: 1.19
xG away: 1.13
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Sat 15 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

FC AlvercavsEA

CF Estrela Amadora

Final 2–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Alverca: 46%
Draw: 31%
Amadora: 23%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 0.95
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 2Fri 14 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Sporting CPvsV

Vitória SC

Final 3–2·Predicted 2-0·Pick Sporting CP win

Hit

CP: 72%
Draw: 19%
SC: 9%

xG home: 2.37
xG away: 0.75
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Mon 10 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Santa ClaravsN

CD Nacional

Final 2–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Clara: 40%
Draw: 32%
Nacional: 28%

xG home: 1.30
xG away: 1.05
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 49%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Gil VicentevsRA

Rio Ave

Final 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Vicente: 39%
Draw: 31%
Ave: 30%

xG home: 1.31
xG away: 1.13
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 51%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

MoreirensevsSB

Sporting Braga

Final 2–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Hit

Moreirense: 32%
Draw: 32%
Braga: 36%

xG home: 1.14
xG away: 1.22
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

BenficavsAV

Académico Viseu FC

Final 2–2·Predicted 3-0·Pick Benfica win

Miss

Benfica: 79%
Draw: 15%
FC: 6%

xG home: 2.70
xG away: 0.69
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 47%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sun 9 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

FC PortovsA

FC Alverca

Final 2–0·Predicted 2-0·Pick FC Porto win

Hit

Porto: 77%
Draw: 17%
Alverca: 6%

xG home: 2.47
xG away: 0.63
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 44%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sat 8 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

CF Estrela AmadoravsSC

Sporting CP

Final 2–2·Predicted 0-2·Pick Sporting CP win

Miss

Amadora: 8%
Draw: 19%
CP: 74%

xG home: 0.66
xG away: 2.32
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 45%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sat 8 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Vitória SCvsA

FC Arouca

Final 0–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

SC: 40%
Draw: 30%
Arouca: 30%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 1.19
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 55%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Sat 8 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon

CS MarítimovsCP

Casa Pia

Final 1–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick CS Marítimo win

Hit

Marítimo: 49%
Draw: 30%
Pia: 22%

xG home: 1.53
xG away: 0.94
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Liga Portugal · Round 1Fri 7 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Estoril PraiavsF

Famalicão

Final 1–1·Predicted 1-2·Pick Famalicão win

Miss

Praia: 25%
Draw: 29%
Famalicão: 45%

xG home: 1.08
xG away: 1.52
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 53%

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Match page

Performance questions

What does this performance page show?

A public record of published forecasts after kick-off: favourite-correct, exact score, Over 2.5 and BTTS, plus walk-forward log loss on the frozen sample.

Why is live accuracy different from the 909-match number?

A single round is a small sample. Several draws against favourites can move live accuracy a long way. Log loss on the frozen set is the number we treat as quality.

Can I filter by league and round?

Yes. Each league and each scored round has its own URL, so the table, title and stats are specific to that slice.

v1.1.0-p1-elo

Liga Portugal

Validation

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

Matches: 909
Log loss: 0.9354
RPS: 0.1839
ECE: 0.0326
1X2 accuracy: 56%
Goal MAE: 0.88

Frozen official baseline v1.1.0-p1-elo. 0.5644 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize.

Live season 2026/27 · round 4

Matches scored: 28
Log loss: 0.8985
RPS: 0.1671
1X2 accuracy: 54%
Goal MAE: 0.84

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga

Validation

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

Matches: 1140
Log loss: 0.9732
RPS: 0.1944
ECE: 0.0260
1X2 accuracy: 53%
Goal MAE: 0.85

Frozen official baseline la-v1.1.0-elo. 0.5316 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize.

Live season 2026/27 · round 3

Matches scored: 25
Log loss: 0.9765
RPS: 0.1896
1X2 accuracy: 52%
Goal MAE: 0.88

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Validation

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

Matches: 1140
Log loss: 0.9796
RPS: 0.1997
ECE: 0.0326
1X2 accuracy: 54%
Goal MAE: 0.94

Frozen official baseline pl-v1.1.0-elo. 0.5421 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize.

Live season 2026/27 · round 2

Matches scored: 5
Log loss: 1.1137
RPS: 0.2101
1X2 accuracy: 20%
Goal MAE: 0.72

Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality.