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E90

Model performance

Every published prediction is stored before kick-off and scored after the match. We report proper scoring rules, not cherry-picked win rates. The diagrams below are reliability plots from the frozen walk-forward samples. Favourite-correct on the live table is a noisy extra.

Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Reliability

When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.

v1.4.0-elo-span16

Liga Portugal

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 42% (173 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 44% (269 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 52% (169 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 72% (128 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 73% (94 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 90% (57 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 95% (19 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Liga Portugal: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0309 on 909 matches.
ECE
0.0309
Log loss
0.9320

ECE 0.0309. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 73% of 94 matches.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 38% (242 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 46% (385 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (258 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 71% (138 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 75% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 93% (43 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (5 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0180 on 1140 matches.
ECE
0.0180
Log loss
0.9703

ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.
ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.
ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 36% (137 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 43% (328 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 53% (248 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 67% (132 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 78% (49 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 74% (19 matches)90–100%: predicted 91%, happened 75% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Ligue 1: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0246 on 917 matches.
ECE
0.0246
Log loss
0.9982

ECE 0.0246. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 78% of 49 matches.

sa-v1.1.0-elo

Serie A

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 40% (237 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 48% (365 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 57% (266 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 65% (184 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 76% (75 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 69% (13 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Serie A: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0242 on 1140 matches.
ECE
0.0242
Log loss
0.9830

ECE 0.0242. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 75 matches.

Choose a league to open a round URL.

Live sample

Open a league page for the scored match table. This index keeps the frozen reliability diagrams.

Matches in view
141
Favourite-correct
48%
Prediction hits
15

Performance questions

What is a reliability diagram?
When the model assigns 70% to the favourite, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. The chart plots predicted favourite probability against how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE is the average gap.
Why not lead with favourite-correct?
A 50% live round can still be well calibrated, and a lucky round can look sharp. Log loss, RPS and this diagram measure whether the probabilities were honest. Favourite-correct stays in the table, last.
Can I filter by league and round?
Yes. Each league and each scored round has its own URL, so the table, title and stats are specific to that slice.

v1.4.0-elo-span16

Liga Portugal

Live season 2026/27 · round 5

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
41 · 41
Log loss
0.9008·0.8786

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0222

RPS
0.1722·0.1650

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0072

Brier
0.5349·0.5223

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0126

Goal MAE
0.87
1X2 accuracy
54%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.541 · 160.6749·0.6548Δ +0.01540.2406·0.231463%Model · Closing line
Under 2.541 · 160.6749·0.6548Δ +0.01540.2406·0.231463%Model · Closing line
BTTS41 · 160.7132·0.6652Δ +0.03530.2595·0.236051%Model · Closing line

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.59090.67260.239958%
Under 2.59090.67260.239958%
BTTS9090.69500.250852%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

Live season 2026/27 · round 9

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
75 · 75
Log loss
0.9869·0.9304

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0565

RPS
0.1963·0.1832

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0131

Brier
0.5867·0.5519

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0348

Goal MAE
0.97
1X2 accuracy
48%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.575 · 530.7057·0.5795Δ +0.11560.2485·0.196660%Model · Closing line
Under 2.575 · 530.7057·0.5795Δ +0.11560.2485·0.196660%Model · Closing line
BTTS75 · 530.6894·0.6646Δ +0.03150.2468·0.236053%Model · Closing line

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.511400.67580.241559%
Under 2.511400.67580.241559%
BTTS11400.68760.247254%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Live season 2026/27 · round 3

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
20 · 20
Log loss
1.0154·1.0244

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0090

RPS
0.1708·0.1694

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0014

Brier
0.6155·0.6170

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0015

Goal MAE
0.89
1X2 accuracy
35%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.520 · 150.7012·0.7258Δ +0.00120.2539·0.264650%Model · Closing line
Under 2.520 · 150.7012·0.7258Δ +0.00120.2539·0.264650%Model · Closing line
BTTS20 · 150.6578·0.6728Δ +0.01380.2324·0.239970%Model · Closing line

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.511400.67950.243158%
Under 2.511400.67950.243158%
BTTS11400.68360.245257%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Live season 2026/27 · round 20

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
5 · 5
Log loss
1.2678·1.2286

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0392

RPS
0.2536·0.2347

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0189

Brier
0.8008·0.7663

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0345

Goal MAE
0.96
1X2 accuracy
40%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.55 · 50.7984·0.8704Δ -0.07210.3003·0.334020%Model · Closing line
Under 2.55 · 50.7984·0.8704Δ -0.07210.3003·0.334020%Model · Closing line
BTTS5 · 50.7119·0.7644Δ -0.05260.2593·0.284740%Model · Closing line

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.57200.69690.251552%
Under 2.57200.69690.251552%
BTTS7200.69150.249253%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1

Live season 2026/27

Matches scored
0
Log loss
—
RPS
—
Goal MAE
—
1X2 accuracy
—

No live goals-market sample yet. Frozen walk-forward goals markets are below.

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.59170.69330.249753%
Under 2.59170.69330.249753%
BTTS9170.69370.250252%

No completed 2026/27 matches scored yet.

sa-v1.1.0-elo

Serie A

Live season 2026/27

Matches scored
0
Log loss
—
RPS
—
Goal MAE
—
1X2 accuracy
—

No live goals-market sample yet. Frozen walk-forward goals markets are below.

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.511400.69080.248854%
Under 2.511400.69080.248854%
BTTS11400.69380.250353%

No completed 2026/27 matches scored yet.