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Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave Prediction

· Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Estoril Praia predictions · Rio Ave predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit
EPEstoril Praia crest

Estoril Praia

0–2

Rio Ave won

RARio Ave crest

Rio Ave

1X2

Estoril Praia win

42%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Estoril Praia win · 42%

Actual Rio Ave won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 0–2

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril PraiavsRARio Ave crestRio Ave

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Estoril Praia win 42%

Estoril Praia win
42%
Draw
31%
Rio Ave win
27%
Estoril Praia win %
42%

Predicted

Draw %
31%
Rio Ave win %
27%

Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Estoril Praia win 42%, from a +15 Elo gap (1467 vs 1452).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.40-1.08.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Xeka suspended and 4 other absences.
Elo

1467 +15 1452

Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Xeka · Estoril Praia
  • Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave
  • Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Estoril PraiaD L D D L0.99-1.66 xG

Rio AveL D L D L0.75-1.51 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Estoril Praia win · 42% · Miss

Expected goals

1.40–1.08

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Estoril Praia versus Rio Ave
Estoril Praia goals012345
011%7%5%
110%15%7%2%
28%9%5%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Under · 2 goals · Hit

BTTS %
52%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.9%
  2. 0-010.6%
  3. 1-09.6%
  4. 2-18.9%
  5. 2-08.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia

Suspended

  • Xeka · M · yellow or red card suspension

RARio Ave crestRio Ave

Out

  • Brandon Aguilera · M · Anterior Cruciate Ligament
  • Cezary Miszta · G · Back Injury
  • João Tomé · D · Muscle Injury
  • Ryan Guilherme · M · Unknown

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia4-2-3-1

  1. 1Joel RoblesG
  2. 2Ricard SánchezD
  3. 3Fernando MedranoD
  4. 4FerroD
  5. 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
  6. 5Antef TsounguiM
  7. 7André LacximicantM
  8. 12João CarvalhoM
  9. 90Tiago BritoM
  10. 99Rafik GuitaneM
  11. 14Yanis BegraouiF

RARio Ave crestRio Ave4-2-3-1

  1. 99Ennio Van Der GouwG
  2. 6Nelson AbbeyD
  3. 14Jakub BrabecD
  4. 23Francisco PetrassoD
  5. 54Georgios LiavasD
  6. 7Diogo BezerraM
  7. 11Jalen BlesaM
  8. 30Roland GalčíkM
  9. 44Tamás NikitscherM
  10. 90Diogo NascimentoM
  11. 9Tamblé MonteiroF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaD L D D L

  • H · Famalicão · 7 Aug 20261-11.06-1.47 xG
  • H · Benfica · 16 May 20261-31.52-4.15 xG
  • A · FC Alverca · 10 May 20261-10.87-1.15 xG
  • A · Sporting Braga · 3 May 20261-11.06-0.40 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 26 Apr 20260-10.44-1.15 xG

RARio Ave crestRio AveL D L D L

  • A · Gil Vicente · 9 Aug 20260-10.19-1.66 xG
  • A · Casa Pia · 16 May 20261-10.75-2.45 xG
  • H · Sporting CP · 11 May 20261-40.97-1.56 xG
  • H · Gil Vicente · 3 May 20260-01.40-0.70 xG
  • A · Vitória SC · 25 Apr 20260-20.44-1.17 xG

How to read the Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave probabilities

Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave (Liga Portugal, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Estoril Praia win 42%. Expected goals are 1.40–1.08. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–2.

Estoril Praia holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.40–1.08). That shows up as Estoril Praia win at 42%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 45% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Estoril Praia win
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave

Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Estoril Praia win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 31%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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