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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Famalicão vs CS Marítimo prediction

Slight lean

Famalicão win 48%

· Estádio Municipal de Famalicão

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit

Famalicão

1–2

CS Marítimo won

CS Marítimo

1X2

Famalicão win

48%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 48%

Actual CS Marítimo won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

FamalicãovsCS Marítimo
Slight lean

Famalicão win48%

Famalicão win
48%
Draw
29%
CS Marítimo win
22%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 14%

Expected goals
1.58–1.01

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
48%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS
53%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Famalicão win 48%, from a +154 Elo gap (1559 vs 1405).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.58-1.01.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.

Match briefing

Elo

1559

+154

1405

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

17 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5

Famalicão

DWDDW

Avg xG 1.34-0.70

CS Marítimo

WLWLD

Avg xG 0.46-0.22

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal14.1%
  2. 2109.8%
  3. 3009.6%
  4. 421Prediction9.4%
  5. 5209.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Famalicão versus CS Marítimo
Famalicão goals012345
010%6%4%
110%14%6%2%
29%9%5%
35%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Famalicão win

Famalicão win: model 48%, fair 2.07, listed 1.73 (54%)

Fair

2.07

48% model

Listed

1.73

54% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.40, listed 3.49 (27%)

Fair

3.40

29% model

Listed

3.49

27% book

CS Marítimo win

CS Marítimo win: model 22%, fair 4.50, listed 4.98 (19%)

Fair

4.50

22% model

Listed

4.98

19% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Famalicão

  1. 25 Lazar Carević · G
  2. 16 Justin De Haas · D · changed
  3. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro · D
  4. 55 Ibrahima Ba · D · changed
  5. 55 Rafa Soares · D · changed
  6. 6 Tom Van De Looi · M
  7. 7 Sorriso · M
  8. 14 Mathias De Amorim · M
  9. 20 Gustavo Sá · M · changed
  10. 23 Gil Dias · M · changed
  11. 12 Simon Elisor · F · changed

CS Marítimo

  1. 31 Marcelo Carné · G · changed
  2. 3 Moises Mosquera · D · changed
  3. 5 Zainadine Júnior · D · changed
  4. 27 Paulinho · D · changed
  5. 94 Vitor Costa · D · changed
  6. 8 Val Soares · M · changed
  7. 21 João Afonso · M · changed
  8. 23 Bruno Xadas · M · changed
  9. 71 Félix Correia · M · changed
  10. 7 André Vidigal · F · changed
  11. 29 Brayan Riascos · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed17 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Lazar Carević · G
  2. 3 Léo Realpe · D · changed
  3. 4 Finn van Breemen · D · changed
  4. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro · D
  5. 28 Pedro Bondo · D · changed
  6. 6 Tom Van De Looi · M
  7. 7 Sorriso · M
  8. 11 Óscar Aranda · M · changed
  9. 14 Mathias De Amorim · M
  10. 19 Paulo Moreira · M · changed
  11. 70 Georgios Koutsias · F · changed

CS Marítimo

4-3-3

  1. 13 Alfonso Pastor · G · changed
  2. 2 Igor Julião · D · changed
  3. 4 Rafael Fernandes · D · changed
  4. 23 Paulo Henrique · D · changed
  5. 44 Romain Correia · D · changed
  6. 6 Rodrigo Andrade · M · changed
  7. 14 Raphael Guzzo · M · changed
  8. 18 Vladan Danilović · M · changed
  9. 10 Martín Tejón · F · changed
  10. 11 Simo Bouzaidi · F · changed
  11. 17 Adrián Butzke · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Famalicão

DWDDW
  • 11Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Aug 2026

    xG 1.47–1.06

  • 10FC AlvercaHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.52–0.45

  • 00CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 1.97–0.26

  • 22BenficaHome · 2 May 2026

    xG 1.58–1.29

  • 10Estoril PraiaAway · 26 Apr 2026

    xG 1.15–0.44

CS Marítimo

WLWLD
  • 10Casa PiaHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 1.39–0.67

  • 13Estoril PraiaAway · 27 May 2023

    xG 0.00–0.00

  • 10VizelaHome · 19 May 2023
  • 12Sporting CPAway · 13 May 2023
  • 22Rio AveHome · 7 May 2023

    xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Famalicão vs CS Marítimo probabilities

Famalicão vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Famalicão win 48%. Expected goals are 1.58–1.01. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.58–1.01). That shows up as Famalicão win at 48%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 48%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Famalicão vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for Famalicão vs CS Marítimo?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 29%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Famalicão vs CS Marítimo?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Famalicão vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Famalicão vs CS Marítimo?
BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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