Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 30%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia prediction

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win 48%

Mon 24 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Published 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit

Gil Vicente

2–0

Gil Vicente won

Casa Pia

1X2

Gil Vicente win

48%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Gil Vicente win · 48%

Actual Gil Vicente won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Gil VicentevsCasa Pia

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win48%

Gil Vicente win: 48%
Draw: 30%
Casa Pia win: 22%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.51–0.96
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Gil Vicente win 48%, from a +59 Elo gap (1489 vs 1430).
2Expected goals 1.51-0.96.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
4Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira suspended.

Match briefing

Elo: 1489
+59
1430
Liga Portugal table
Out: Gil VicenteNone out
No listed absences
Casa Pia1 out
Domingos Jose Gabriel BandeiraSuspended
XI: Expected XI
14 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5: Gil Vicente
WLLDW
Avg xG 1.13-1.15
Casa Pia
LDWLL
Avg xG 1.12-1.30

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal14.4%
21010.6%
30010.6%
420Result9.6%
521Prediction9.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Gil Vicente versus Casa Pia
Gil Vicente goals	0	1	2
0	11%	6%	4%
1	11%	14%	6%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	5%	5%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:31 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Gil Vicente win

Fair

2.10

48% model

Listed

1.81

53% book

Draw

Fair

3.31

30% model

Listed

3.45

28% book

Casa Pia win

Fair

4.54

22% model

Listed

5.18

19% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 8 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Gil VicenteNone out

No listed absences.

Casa Pia1 out

Domingos Jose Gabriel BandeiraSuspendedyellow or red card suspension

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Gil Vicente

Casa Pia

Confirmed XIConfirmed14 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Gil Vicente

4-2-3-1

Casa Pia

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Gil Vicente

WLLDW

10Rio AveHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 1.66–0.19
03Sporting CPAway · 16 May 2026
xG 0.64–1.61
13FC AroucaHome · 11 May 2026
xG 0.77–1.32
00Rio AveAway · 3 May 2026
xG 0.70–1.40
21Casa PiaHome · 27 Apr 2026
xG 1.88–1.21

Casa Pia

LDWLL

01CS MarítimoAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 0.67–1.39
11Rio AveHome · 16 May 2026
xG 2.45–0.75
10Vitória SCAway · 11 May 2026
xG 0.88–0.94
01TondelaHome · 3 May 2026
xG 0.38–1.53
12Gil VicenteAway · 27 Apr 2026
xG 1.21–1.88

How to read the Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia probabilities

Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 24 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Gil Vicente win 48%. Expected goals are 1.51–0.96. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

Gil Vicente holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.51–0.96). That shows up as Gil Vicente win at 48%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Gil Vicente win
Kick-off: Mon 24 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 30%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.