Who is favourite for Sporting CP vs FC Arouca?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 76%. Home 76%, draw 17%, away 7%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sporting CP vs FC Arouca?

2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sporting CP vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sporting CP vs FC Arouca?

BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 7 · 2026/27

Sporting CP vs FC Arouca prediction

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 76%

Sat 19 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon · Estádio José Alvalade

Published 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Sporting CPvsFC Arouca

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win76%

Open game

Sporting CP win: 76%
Draw: 17%
FC Arouca win: 7%

Prediction: 2–0
Expected goals: 2.48–0.65
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 45%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 76%, from a +312 Elo gap (1811 vs 1499).
2Expected goals 2.48-0.65.
3Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 61%.
5Ibrahima Ba listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: 1811
+312
1499
Liga Portugal table
Out: Sporting CP1 out
Ibrahima Ba
FC AroucaNone out
No listed absences
XI: Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Sporting CP
DWWWW
Avg xG 2.03-0.46
FC Arouca
LDWLW
Avg xG 1.20-1.23

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Prediction13.4%
23011.1%
3109.6%
4218.8%
5118.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sporting CP versus FC Arouca
Sporting CP goals	0	1	2
0	6%
1	10%	8%	2%
2	13%	9%	3%
3	11%	7%	2%
4	7%	4%
5	3%	2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:07 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Sporting CP win

Fair

1.31

76% model

Listed

1.19

78% book

Draw

Fair

5.74

17% model

Listed

6.59

14% book

FC Arouca win

Fair

15.31

7% model

Listed

12.43

8% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.65
Listed: 1.44

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.53
Listed: 2.92

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.21
Listed: 1.91

BTTS no

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.76

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Sporting CP1 out

Ibrahima BaOutKnock Injury

FC AroucaNone out

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Sporting CP

4-2-3-1

FC Arouca

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sporting CP

DWWWW

11FamalicãoAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.28–0.35
20CD NacionalHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.00–0.08
40Rio AveAway · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.61–0.32
31FC AlvercaHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.12–0.41
32Vitória SCHome · 14 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.12

FC Arouca

LDWLW

12Santa ClaraHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.72–1.16
00Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.07–0.86
21CS MarítimoHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.55–0.70
02FC PortoAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.54–2.92
40MoreirenseHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 2.14–0.49

How to read the Sporting CP vs FC Arouca probabilities

Sporting CP vs FC Arouca (Liga Portugal, 19 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Sporting CP win 76%. Expected goals are 2.48–0.65. Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.48–0.65). Sporting CP win is 76%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 61%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 45%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Sporting CP vs FC Arouca

Who is favourite for Sporting CP vs FC Arouca?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 76%. Home 76%, draw 17%, away 7%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sporting CP vs FC Arouca?: 2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Sporting CP vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sporting CP vs FC Arouca?: BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.