Who is favourite for Famalicão vs Sporting CP?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 57%. Home 16%, draw 27%, away 57%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Famalicão vs Sporting CP?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Famalicão vs Sporting CP go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Famalicão vs Sporting CP?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 6 · 2026/27

Famalicão vs Sporting CP prediction

Clear lean

Sporting CP win 57%

Sun 13 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon · Estádio Municipal de Famalicão

Published 13 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 6 · 1/4 checks hit

Famalicão

1–1

Draw

Sporting CP

1X2

Sporting CP win

57%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Sporting CP win · 57%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FamalicãovsSporting CP

Clear lean

Sporting CP win57%

Famalicão win: 16%
Draw: 27%
Sporting CP win: 57%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.90–1.85
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Sporting CP win 57%, from a -281 Elo gap (1535 vs 1815).
2Expected goals 0.90-1.85.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Tom Van De Looi listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1535
-281
1815
Liga Portugal table
Out: Famalicão1 out
Tom Van De Looi
Sporting CP1 out
Ibrahima Ba
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Famalicão
DDLLD
Avg xG 1.04-1.05
Sporting CP
WWWWD
Avg xG 2.10-0.61

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111ModalResult12.8%
20210.9%
312Prediction9.8%
4019.7%
5008.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Famalicão versus Sporting CP
Famalicão goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	9%	10%	11%	7%	3%
1	4%	13%	10%	6%	3%
2	3%	5%	4%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Famalicão win

Fair

6.31

16% model

Listed

6.15

16% book

Draw

Fair

3.75

27% model

Listed

4.30

22% book

Sporting CP win

Fair

1.74

57% model

Listed

1.55

62% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.80

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.08
Listed: 2.08

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.92

BTTS no

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 1.80

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Famalicão1 out

Tom Van De LooiOutUnknown

Sporting CP1 out

Ibrahima BaOutKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Famalicão

Sporting CP

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Famalicão

4-2-3-1

Sporting CP

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Famalicão

DDLLD

22CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.80–0.94
00Gil VicenteHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.27–0.27
01Santa ClaraAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.05–1.36
12CS MarítimoHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.59–1.61
11Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Aug 2026
xG 1.47–1.06

Sporting CP

WWWWD

20CD NacionalHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.00–0.08
40Rio AveAway · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.61–0.32
31FC AlvercaHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.12–0.41
32Vitória SCHome · 14 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.12
22CF Estrela AmadoraAway · 8 Aug 2026
xG 2.63–1.10

How to read the Famalicão vs Sporting CP probabilities

Famalicão vs Sporting CP (Liga Portugal, 13 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Sporting CP win 57%. Expected goals are 0.90–1.85. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.90–1.85). Sporting CP win is 57%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Clear lean · Sporting CP win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Famalicão vs Sporting CP

Who is favourite for Famalicão vs Sporting CP?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 57%. Home 16%, draw 27%, away 57%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Famalicão vs Sporting CP?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Famalicão vs Sporting CP go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Famalicão vs Sporting CP?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.